1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

The market of acrylic acid rose on November 23. As of November 23, the average price of acrylic acid quoted in East China was 8800 yuan / ton, up 2.72% compared with last Friday and 16.72% lower than that on October 23, according to the data from the bulk list of business agencies.

In recent years, the price of raw material propylene has risen, the cost support has been strengthened, the downstream purchase on demand, the inquiry and transaction are acceptable, and the market trading center has steadily increased. On November 22, the acrylic acid commodity index was 42.96, unchanged with yesterday, down 57.04% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and increased by 74.85% from the lowest point of 24.57 on November 26, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Upstream propylene, upstream propylene, this week (11.16 ~ 11.20) Shandong propylene market rose over the weekend. According to the price chart of the business agency, since November 1, the propylene price has dropped sharply at the end of October, and has risen by 200-250 yuan / ton on the 5th. After a short period of stabilization, the price dropped slightly by about 100 yuan / ton on August 8 and 9, and then stabilized again. On the 12th, it rose 50 yuan / ton again, and then fluctuated slightly. On the 19th, it showed a trend of full increase, rising by 50-100 yuan / ton, and again today Generally, the price is raised by about 100 yuan / ton, and the current market turnover is between 6980 yuan / ton and 7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7000 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of the manufacturer is controllable and the shipment situation is ideal.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts of the business agency believe that the price of raw material propylene has risen recently, the cost support has risen, and the downstream needs to purchase. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices rose this week. At the end of last week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8600 yuan / ton, while that of this weekend was 10700.67 yuan / ton. During the week, the price was increased by 25.15%.

2、 Market analysis

Chart: comparison of acetone and isopropanol price trend from August to November

Domestic isopropanol prices soared this week. The international market, the United States market isopropanol closed stable, European market isopropanol closed up sharply. The price of acetone in domestic market rose sharply, followed by isopropanol. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province is about 10500-11000 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is 11000-11500 yuan / ton. Zhejiang isopropanol negotiation range is around 11000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, acetone prices rose this week. The average price of acetone in China was 7700 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 9450 yuan / ton this weekend. The price of acetone increased by 22.73% during the week. At present, the acetone market has a big rise, which has strong support for isopropanol, and the price of isopropanol also goes up.

Propylene, according to the monitoring of commodity data, propylene prices rose this week. At the end of last week, the average price of acetone in China was 6891.91 yuan / ton, while that of this weekend was 7032.82 yuan / ton. The price of acetone increased by 2.04% during the week. The price of propylene market in Shandong Province has risen slightly. The inventory of the manufacturers is controllable, and the shipment situation is still satisfactory. At present, the profit margin of propylene isopropanol is larger.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: the market price of raw material acetone rose sharply, the market price of propylene increased slightly, and the cost support was strong, which boosted the price of isopropanol. In terms of demand, export advantages still exist. The domestic market is cautious, and most of the cargo holders are bullish and reluctant to sell. It is expected that in the short term, isopropanol prices will mainly run at a high level, and follow-up attention will be paid to the changes in the news.

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, DOP price of plasticizer soared this week, DOP price broke through the 10000 yuan mark. As of November 19, many DOP manufacturers have quoted more than 10000 yuan / ton, some of which have increased by about 1000 yuan / ton every day. The average price of DOP is more than 9500 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 13.52%. The sharp rise of DOP price caused market panic, factory prices changed three times a day, and some manufacturers sealed their plates to stabilize the market mentality.

Upstream market of industrial chain

 
It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride that the market of phthalic anhydride rose in November, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply this week. On the 17th, the price of phthalic anhydride rose by 500 yuan / ton in a single day. The cost of DOP rose sharply, and DOP price rose greatly. However, on the 18th and 19th, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized, and on the 19th, some manufacturers of phthalic anhydride made a slight correction. The support of phthalic anhydride to the rise of DOP was weakened, and the upward momentum of DOP in the future market was weakened.

The price of octanol increased sharply in this month, and the price of octanol rose sharply in November. On the 19th, the price of octanol stabilized, while the rising power of DOP weakened.

Downstream market of industrial chain

PVC prices rose sharply in November, the price of PVC increased sharply. From the trend chart trend, PVC prices tend to be stable, PVC support for DOP in the future market is weakened, and the upward momentum of DOP in the future market is weakened.

Macroeconomic environment

The fourth leaders’ meeting of regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) will be held by video on November 15, 2020. Witnessed by the leaders of the 15 countries, the trade ministers of all countries signed the RCEP agreement. Currently, RCEP is jointly signed by ten ASEAN countries and 15 countries including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. Now, the total population of the 15 member countries in 2019 will reach 2.27 billion, GDP will reach 26 trillion US dollars, and the total export volume will reach 5.2 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 30% of the global total. RCEP will usher in a strong driving force for regional and global economic growth in East Asia. The favorable macroeconomic environment is good for the whole chemical industry chain and DOP industry chain.

Market review and future expectation

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with DOP data of the business agency, the RCEP agreement has brought new strong impetus to macroeconomic growth, stimulated the rise of the industrial chain, and triggered a sharp rise in prices this week. In terms of raw materials, the prices of phthalic anhydride and octanol rose sharply this week, which stimulated DOP prices to follow. This week, DOP prices soared, and some manufacturers quoted more than 10000 yuan. On the downstream side, PVC prices rose sharply this week, which was good for DOP market and supported the rise of DOP price. In the near future, the demand of the industrial chain has not fundamentally changed. From the price trend of phthalic anhydride and octanol, the price of phthalic anhydride and octanol tends to be stable, and the upward momentum of DOP is weakened. PVC price growth slowed down, support for DOP rise weakened. Generally speaking, the good news stimulated the rise of DOP price this week, but the actual supply and demand did not change much. The price rise was a castle in the air, and the support was insufficient. The motive force of the future DOP rise was insufficient, and the DOP price was expected to stabilize.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, since the middle of August this year, the domestic market of spandex has been rising. As of November 16, the average ex factory price of 40d was 40800 yuan / ton, with an increase of 32.04% in the past three months and a year-on-year increase of 28.87%.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D                   30D                40D

Zhejiang 41000-45000 40000-41000 35000-37000

Shandong 42000-45000 40000-42000 35000-38000

Fujian 42000-45000 40000-42000 35000-38000

Jiangsu 41000-45000 40000-41000 35000-37000

Spandex manufacturers have also issued price increase notices for many times. On the one hand, it is mainly from the upstream cost push up. On the other hand, the downstream terminal customers’ orders are well followed up. The manufacturers’ overstocked inventory in the early stage is gradually cleared, and the inventory level has dropped to the historical low level, and even some batch numbers are tense. The prices of various specifications have increased by 1000-2000 yuan / ton from the beginning to 2000-3000 yuan / ton in the later stage 。 At present, the 40d price of the factory ranges from 35000 to 43000 yuan / ton. The market is still strong and high, and the industry is operating at a high level near 90%, and the supply of goods is still slightly tight.

Pure MDI of upstream raw materials began to rise. From the beginning of August, the spot market price of pure MDI in China was 13500 yuan / ton, and 35000 yuan / ton in early November. It took three months, and the price more than doubled. In particular, since the National Day holiday, the market heard that there is a maintenance plan, the operating load maintained a low level of around 45%, and the price rose strongly. However, due to the resistance of downstream customers and the lack of transaction atmosphere, the focus of trading in November continued to be weak, and the price began to fall. As of November 13, the spot market price of pure MDI referred to 29000-29500 yuan / ton of telegraphic transfer in barrels.

However, the price of PTMEG, the main raw material of spandex, was relatively moderate. The market price was weak in August and rose slowly since September. At the beginning of September, the mainstream price of 1800 molecular weight goods in the spot market was 13800-14500 yuan / ton, and the actual price was negotiated at 13700-14300 yuan / ton. In November, the cost is stronger, the supply of PTMEG market is still tight, and the intention of the factory to support the price continues. At present, the mainstream quotation of 1800 molecular weight goods source is 16500-17000 yuan / ton, and the actual price negotiation is 15500-16800 yuan / ton. In terms of plant, in Shanghai BASF 110000 tons of plant load reduction operation, Yizheng Dalian 40000 tons of plant shutdown, PTMEG industry started 71%, start carefully.

In the “silver 10″ market, the downstream market has been active in purchasing and selling, and the backlog of replenishment demand in the early stage has burst, ushering in the peak sales season since this year. However, in November, the purchase and sales weakened, and the increase of follow-up orders was less than expected. It will also enter the traditional off-season of the industry. After the domestic “double 11″ orders, the follow-up connection of orders is weak, and the product inventory is expected to gradually accumulate. However, with the approaching of Christmas and Spring Festival, the market cooling rate is expected to be limited in the short term under the stimulation of holiday orders. At present, Xiaoshao area is generally started, and the level of round knitting machine and wrapping yarn market is maintained at 70-80%; enterprises in Changshu maintain stable start-up, and the starting level of round knitting machine market is maintained at around 60%; the market in Fujian is fair, with lace around 60% and warp knitting around 80%; Guangdong is cautious in starting, and the market of yarn wrapping, warp knitting and circular knitting is maintained at 60-70%.

Business agency analysts believe that the cost side of pure MDI spot market price shock and fall, but PTMEG is still running, supporting role still exists. Downstream customers temporarily maintain on-demand pick-up, new orders follow-up slightly gentle, the atmosphere of market observation is gradually strong. In the short term, the price of spandex will remain high.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of octanol in Shandong Province rose sharply. This week, the average price of octanol mainstream ex factory price in Shandong increased from 7483.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8016.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 7.13%, 15.63% compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol market rose this week, with the octanol commodity index of 58.95 on November 13.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the main octanol manufacturer’s factory quotation in Shandong Province rose this week: the octanol quotation of Jianlan chemical was 8200 yuan / ton at the end of this week, 750 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the octanol quotation of lihuayi was 8000 yuan / ton at the end of this week, 500 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of Hualu Hengsheng octanol was 7850 yuan / ton at the end of this week It increased by 350 yuan / ton.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol rose this week, with the quotation rising from 6868.27 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6891.91 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.34%, and a decrease of 6.86% compared with the same period last year. Upstream raw material market price rise, affected by the supply and demand side, has a positive impact on the price of octanol.

The downstream market of octanol, DOP factory price rose sharply this week. The DOP quotation rose from 7683.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8383.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 9.11% and a year-on-year increase of 14.32% over the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices rose, downstream customers were more enthusiastic about octanol procurement, octanol demand was general, and later market operators were more likely to wait for DOP trend.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle and late November, the market trend of octanol in Shandong Province may fluctuate and rise slightly. The upstream propylene market rose, the raw material support was strong, the downstream DOP market also rose slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was high, the octanol supply was normal. Octanol analysts believe that: in the late November of Shandong octanol market in supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of octanol market or a small surge rise.