Price trend
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According to the business agency data monitoring, DOP price of plasticizer soared this week, DOP price broke through the 10000 yuan mark. As of November 19, many DOP manufacturers have quoted more than 10000 yuan / ton, some of which have increased by about 1000 yuan / ton every day. The average price of DOP is more than 9500 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 13.52%. The sharp rise of DOP price caused market panic, factory prices changed three times a day, and some manufacturers sealed their plates to stabilize the market mentality.
Upstream market of industrial chain
It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride that the market of phthalic anhydride rose in November, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply this week. On the 17th, the price of phthalic anhydride rose by 500 yuan / ton in a single day. The cost of DOP rose sharply, and DOP price rose greatly. However, on the 18th and 19th, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized, and on the 19th, some manufacturers of phthalic anhydride made a slight correction. The support of phthalic anhydride to the rise of DOP was weakened, and the upward momentum of DOP in the future market was weakened.
The price of octanol increased sharply in this month, and the price of octanol rose sharply in November. On the 19th, the price of octanol stabilized, while the rising power of DOP weakened.
Downstream market of industrial chain
PVC prices rose sharply in November, the price of PVC increased sharply. From the trend chart trend, PVC prices tend to be stable, PVC support for DOP in the future market is weakened, and the upward momentum of DOP in the future market is weakened.
Macroeconomic environment
The fourth leaders’ meeting of regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) will be held by video on November 15, 2020. Witnessed by the leaders of the 15 countries, the trade ministers of all countries signed the RCEP agreement. Currently, RCEP is jointly signed by ten ASEAN countries and 15 countries including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. Now, the total population of the 15 member countries in 2019 will reach 2.27 billion, GDP will reach 26 trillion US dollars, and the total export volume will reach 5.2 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 30% of the global total. RCEP will usher in a strong driving force for regional and global economic growth in East Asia. The favorable macroeconomic environment is good for the whole chemical industry chain and DOP industry chain.
Market review and future expectation
According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with DOP data of the business agency, the RCEP agreement has brought new strong impetus to macroeconomic growth, stimulated the rise of the industrial chain, and triggered a sharp rise in prices this week. In terms of raw materials, the prices of phthalic anhydride and octanol rose sharply this week, which stimulated DOP prices to follow. This week, DOP prices soared, and some manufacturers quoted more than 10000 yuan. On the downstream side, PVC prices rose sharply this week, which was good for DOP market and supported the rise of DOP price. In the near future, the demand of the industrial chain has not fundamentally changed. From the price trend of phthalic anhydride and octanol, the price of phthalic anhydride and octanol tends to be stable, and the upward momentum of DOP is weakened. PVC price growth slowed down, support for DOP rise weakened. Generally speaking, the good news stimulated the rise of DOP price this week, but the actual supply and demand did not change much. The price rise was a castle in the air, and the support was insufficient. The motive force of the future DOP rise was insufficient, and the DOP price was expected to stabilize.
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