1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic market price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend this week. On February 9, the price of mixed xylene was 4670 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (February 21), the price was 5120 yuan / ton, up 450 yuan / ton or 9.64% compared with that before the festival.

2、 Analysis and comment

From February 10 to 21, Sinopec’s mixed xylene increased by 300-500 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, affected by crude oil and cold weather in the United States, energy and chemical products rose. The domestic xylene market was boosted by favorable conditions, and the price rose strongly. Asian PX prices rose due to unscheduled shutdown of some devices and reduced supply. However, there is little change in domestic downstream devices, and the demand follow-up is weak, which limits the growth of xylene. In terms of external market, as of February 19, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 697 US dollars / ton, up 56 US dollars / ton or 8.74% on February 12, and the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 718 US dollars / ton, up 58 US dollars / ton or 8.79% on February 12.

In terms of crude oil, during the Spring Festival, affected by the extremely cold weather in the United States, the operating rate of refineries declined, the inventory of refined oil decreased significantly, and the demand for heating oil increased, which was favorable for oil prices. On February 12, Brent rose $2.125/barrel, or 3.47%; WTI rose $2.39/barrel, or 4.11%.

Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price showed an upward trend this week, the average price at the weekend was 5700 yuan / ton, up 7.55% compared with that before the festival, down 9.52% year on year. The operating rate of PX in China is about 60%, and that of p-xylene unit in Asia is about 60%. During the Spring Festival, the earthquake in Japan, Vietnam a set of device shutdown, PX production was affected. In the short term, the domestic PX market continued to go to the warehouse. By the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asia was 762-764 USD / T, FOB Korea and 780-782 USD / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA prices in East China rose slightly. On February 21, the price was 4119 yuan / ton, up 2.15% compared with that before the festival and down 8.14% compared with that in the same period last year. Domestic PTA started at 87.06%. During the Spring Festival, PTA Yisheng Hainan’s 2 million ton large plant had problems and is expected to be difficult to restart in February. Other PTA plants are in normal operation, and it is expected that PTA supply pressure will remain the same.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China was 5500 yuan / ton on Sunday, up 10% compared with that before the festival. The cost of o-benzene and the external quotation rose; the domestic supply of o-benzene was sufficient; the downstream market rose, the market of phthalic anhydride fluctuated, the plasticizer DOP market rose sharply, and the transaction of o-benzene increased.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Mixed xylene market ushered in a good start, crude oil support was strong, the bulk market atmosphere was warm, and the price rose generally. But demand limits gains. Overall, it is expected that the price of mixed xylene will continue to follow the “trend”. Continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda is stable for the time being. On February 22, the average price in domestic market was 1496.67 yuan / ton. On February 21, the commodity index of baking soda was 99.34, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.36% from 121.68 (2020-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 12.54% from 88.27, the lowest point on December 22, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the news agency, the price of sodium bicarbonate runs smoothly, and the downstream market shipment is fair. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan is about 1420-1600 yuan, which is the mainstream price in the market. The downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be slightly consolidated in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 1350-1550 yuan / ton, which is the mainstream price in the market, and the downstream demand is acceptable.

In terms of raw materials: the domestic soda production started slowly after the festival, but the market atmosphere is still relatively light. The downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude is dominant. It is expected that in the later stage, the operation of soda production will be mainly stable and small. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1450-1550 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, there are few inquiries and transactions. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be temporarily stable in the short term. The price of soda ash in Central China is stable with small movements. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1400 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, there are few inquiries and transactions. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable with small movements in the short term.

Demand side: downstream medicine, textile, food demand for baking soda is fair, baking soda prices temporarily stable. Analysts of business news agency think: the domestic soda market is temporarily stable after the festival, the market atmosphere is light, and the market has not changed greatly. The downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude is dominant. It is expected that the general market operation of soda will be maintained in the later period. The situation of soda ash in the upstream is more stable than that in the downstream. In general, the short-term price of sodium bicarbonate may maintain a temporary stable trend, and in particular, it depends on the demand of the downstream market.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on February 19, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 7575 yuan / ton, up 3.74% from 7350 yuan / ton before the festival (9th), and 14.23% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

After the holiday, the PVC market rose, and the price continued to rise in the first two days of construction, with a total increase of 3.74%. The daily increase of enterprises was about 100-300 yuan / ton. Now some quotations have risen to more than 8000 yuan / ton, and the market price is not much. Some of them stopped to wait and see. The first wave of price increase after the Spring Festival has started. Two days after the start of construction, the futures price rose sharply, driving the spot price. Meanwhile, during the Spring Festival, due to the extremely cold weather in the United States, the production capacity decreased, the international supply was tight, and the PVC export volume increased, which helped the PVC price rise. At present, there are too many enterprises that stop reporting PVC. They mainly issue orders and are cautious about the market. They are bullish. This year, the downstream demand started ahead of schedule, and the market is expected to be good. Boosted by the positive factors of rising futures price, good export and stronger demand, the PVC market is relatively strong, and the price is expected to continue to rise.

In terms of spot, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 7750-8050 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in East China is around 7900-8000 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hebei is 7750-7900 yuan / ton, the range of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou is 7900-8050 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is 8000-8050 yuan / ton, and the main stream price of PVC common calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 8000-8150 yuan / ton.

Futures, futures prices rose, boosting the spot market. On the 19th, the main PVC futures contract 2105 opened at 7960 yuan / ton and closed at 8220 yuan / ton. The settlement price of the previous day was 7955 yuan / ton, up 3.33%. The trading range was 7885-8250 yuan / ton, with 395602 transactions and 358610 positions.

Regional varieties 19 Feb 2005

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide process: 8000-8050 yuan / ton

Guangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8000-8150 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide process: 7750-7900 yuan / ton

Hangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 7900-8050 yuan / ton

Upstream crude oil: on February 18, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $60.53/barrel, down US $0.61. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell, settlement price rose, settlement price of the main contract at 63.93 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.59 U.S. dollars. On Thursday, oil prices rose. Brent once rose above US $65, and then the market high fell, mainly due to the impact of investment profit taking. Previously, due to the extremely cold weather in the United States, the decline of production capacity and the increase of demand have driven oil prices to rise for several days. Despite the sharp reduction of US crude oil inventory, the market is still uneasy about the current virtual high oil price, and the high selling has led to the decline of oil prices.

Ethylene, the recent external ethylene market overall upward trend. Asia’s ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 18th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $852-860 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $827-835 / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe increased greatly. By the 18th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1164-1177 / T, CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1150-1161 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States soared. By the 18th, the price was 914-926 US dollars / ton. Recently, the ethylene market in Europe, America and Asia showed a rising trend. Generally speaking, during the Spring Festival holiday, the whole ethylene market kept rising, the market trading atmosphere was warm and the transaction was positive.

On February 19, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable, and the reference price was 3050.00, which was 1.08% lower than that on February 1 (3083.33). The price of raw material orchid charcoal was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently. The downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing calcium carbide. The output of calcium carbide has risen, and the market supply exceeds the demand. Calcium carbide in the future fluctuated slightly.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business news agency believe that the current market is strong, PVC futures prices are rising, spot market prices are rising along with it, and the export volume is increasing, as well as downstream enterprises start earlier than in previous years, and the demand side support is gradually stronger. Under the multiple positive support, the market expectation is good, and it is expected that the PVC market will continue to rise in the short term.

On February 19, 2021, in the price rise and fall list of fluorine chemical industry, there were 1 commodity that rose, 0 commodity that fell, and 6 commodities that rose or fell to 0. Rising products include chloroform; stable products include fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, R22, R134a, aluminum fluoride and cryolite.

On February 19, the price trend of fluorine chemical raw material market was temporarily stable, with the price of raw material fluorite at 2741.11 yuan / ton. Recently, some fluorite plants in China started to work normally, and some mines and flotation plants in the plant were shut down. The fluorite supply in the plant was tight, but the downstream market rose recently, and the fluorite price was affected and went up. As of the 19th, the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and volatile in the future.

In the near future, the market trend of the downstream refrigerant industry is general, the operating rate remains low, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. However, due to the reduction of the supply in the market, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. As of the 19th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10577.78 yuan / ton. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has gone up, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. The enterprises reflect that the current hydrofluoric acid spot goods in the market The market of hydrofluoric acid is still bullish. Chen Ling, an analyst of business community, believes that the market of hydrofluoric acid may be slightly higher.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The ex factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

In recent years, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong has been rising. The overall demand of the downstream market has not changed much. The demand for trichloromethane is general. As the downstream market begins to stock up, the market price of trichloromethane has risen slightly. At present, the start-up of chloroform production enterprises in Shandong is high, the market spot supply is stable, and the shipping situation of enterprises is flat. In order to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future, enterprises bid for shipping. At present, Shandong offers 2350-2450 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

In the near future, the price trend of downstream refrigerants R22 and R134a is temporarily stable, the raw material chloroform continues to be weak, the support of cost side is weakened, the downstream goods preparation is finished, the traders continue to withdraw from the market, the demand side continues to decline, and the market center moves down. Due to the higher price of hydrofluoric acid, the affected price of refrigerants rises slightly. Refrigerant R134a prices rose slightly, the market is strong operation. Near the end of the year, the downstream construction continued to decline, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market rose slightly.

According to the block data monitoring of the business community, affected by the end market holiday, the domestic ethyl acetate Market was weak. As of February 8, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 7812 yuan / ton, down 2.5% compared with the same period last week and up 14.47% compared with the same period last month.

At present, the domestic ethyl acetate market continues to be weak, the terminal market is affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the demand side support is insufficient, the inventory of ethyl acetate manufacturers is accumulated, the enterprises are forced to give up profits to ship, which drives the surrounding market to reduce the price. As the market is gradually closed, the industry holds a wait-and-see attitude. At present, it is about 7800-7900 yuan / ton in East China, 7600-7700 yuan / ton in North China and 8500-8600 yuan / ton in South China.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic acetic acid market is rising at a high level. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream market demand is still stable. In addition, the parking of large North American factories in the near future and the increase of enterprises’ exports in East China have led to the shortage of spot supply in the market, and the overall inventory of acetic acid market is low, so it is difficult to make up the supply side gap in a short time. In terms of ethanol, corn prices continue to be high, ethanol production costs are high, the pre Festival units of enterprises basically maintain low load, and the early downstream stock is obvious. It is expected that the domestic ethanol market will be mainly sorted out in the short term. At present, the ethanol market in East China is about 7175 yuan / ton.

Ethyl acetate analysts of business news agency believe that the current domestic ethyl acetate Market trading is poor, and enterprises are bidding for sales. Due to the strong price of raw materials, some enterprises have been in a state of loss. In order to prevent excessive pressure on the future market, it is expected that ethyl acetate enterprises will still make profits in a short period of time.