This week, the domestic methanol market was depressed and sorted out, and the mainland transactions were heavy again, while the coastal market performed generally. Under the background of stable cost support, replenishment demand and mainland rigid demand, the volume of transactions in the main production areas is large; The terminal receiving price is subject to high inventory and general price performance.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, from June 24 to July 1, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises fell from 2655 yuan / ton to 2620 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.32% in the cycle, a rise of 0.10% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 2.54%.

As of the close on July 1, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were weak and volatile. Ma2209 contract opened at 2636 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2640 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2533 yuan / ton. It closed at 2553 yuan / ton at the end of the trading day, down 83 yuan / ton from the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, ma2209 contract positions were 1121100 hands, an increase of 104500 hands from the previous trading day.

As of 7.1, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region, Price

Qinghai region, No quotation at present

Shanxi region, The mainstream ranges from 2410-2470 yuan / ton

Liaoning region, 2680 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian, The mainstream negotiation is 2570-2650 yuan / ton

Two lakes region, Mainstream enterprises negotiate for reference, about 2590-2650 yuan / ton

Anhui region, The mainstream negotiation is about 2620-2680 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 2600 yuan / ton

The profit performance of methanol industrial chain is acceptable. At the upstream end, the high price of coal fell, and the price of methanol was slightly stuck, making the loss of coal alcohol slightly narrowed; The price of natural gas remained stable, as the average price of methanol in Sichuan and Chongqing fell, resulting in the profit repatriation of gas alcohol. Downstream, the focus of overall commodity prices fell, and most products with improved profits fell less than raw materials, and vice versa.

 
In the external market, as of the close on July 1, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $372.00-373.00/t, down $2 / T. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 96.50-97.00 cents / gallon, down 1 cent / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 353.50-354.00 euros / ton, down 10 euros / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 372.00-373.00 USD / ton, – 2 dollars / ton

Europe and America, The Gulf of the United States, 96.50-97.00 cents / gallon, – 1 cent / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam ., 353.50-354.00 euros / ton, – 10 euros / ton

The production cost of methanol may not change much, and the demand adjustment may be limited. Methanol analysts of the business club expect that the domestic methanol market will be mainly sorted out in the short term.

On the 4th, the polyethylene spot market remained weak, and the price continued to decline. The ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises fell partially, mostly by 50-100 yuan / ton. Although the cost has brought a little support to the market, the demand is still weak, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is general, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. It is expected that the PE spot market will continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands fell. As of July 1, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for Zhongtong 2.75-2.85 was about 15600 yuan / ton, up or down -2.90% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam fell this week. Raw material pure benzene continued to decline, crude oil weakened, and external news support was weak. Domestic pure benzene port inventory continues to increase and supply increases. However, the profit of downstream products is at a loss, the economy of some devices is reduced, and the demand is weakened. It is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to decline in the short term.

The upstream caprolactam market fell, and the cost side support of PA6 weakened this week. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant has limited changes, which is generally stable below 70%, and it is running sideways this week. In terms of news, affected by the Fed’s interest rate hike in the early stage, the international crude oil price fell, and the near and far cost side support of PA6 weakened. The supply side of PA6 is abundant, and the profits of polymerization enterprises are under pressure. The load of downstream enterprises fell narrowly, and the demand slowed down as the market entered the off-season. The purchaser is cautious in taking goods, mainly in small order purchase to maintain production, and the delivery and investment situation is poor.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: this week, the spot price of PA6 fell, caprolactam fell, and the cost support of PA6 weakened. Downstream enterprises take small orders to maintain production, and there is resistance to high price sources in the market, and the trading volume shrinks. It is expected that the trend of PA6 market may be weak in the short term.

Paraformaldehyde market price trend chart

According to the monitoring of business agency, on June 1, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 5383 yuan / ton, and on June 27, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 5350 yuan / ton, down 0.62%.

On June 27, Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. had an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The ex factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax was 5400 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month. Due to the price reduction of upstream raw materials, Polyoxymethylene generally sold out.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol producers was 2617 yuan / ton on June 1, and 2612 yuan / ton on June 29, a decrease of 0.19%. Methanol prices rose first and then fell this month. On June 29, the average price of formaldehyde producers in Shandong was 1270 yuan / ton, which was the same as the quotation on June 1. The price of formaldehyde rose first and then fell this month.

The methanol market fell slightly in June. Polyoxymethylene enterprises’ quotation is mainly firm, and the quotation declines slightly. Polyoxymethylene analysts of business community predict that polyoxymethylene may be dominated by weak operation.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell in June. On the whole, the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. By the end of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8575 yuan / ton, up 3.31% compared with the price of 8300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 35.84% year-on-year. The market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly in June, and the phthalic anhydride market was generally sold.

In the first ten days of June, the market price of phthalic anhydride rose, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the yard was general, and the price of upstream raw material o-benzene rose in the first ten days of June, which affected the price of phthalic anhydride to rise. However, the phthalic anhydride market began to fall gradually in the middle and late ten days. In the latter ten days, the price of ortho benzene fell sharply. In addition, the plasticizer market continued to decline. Negative factors affected the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market fell. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers has not changed much. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the site is less than 60%, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of upstream adjacent benzene was generally stable in June. Affected by this, the market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has risen, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of the neighboring France source negotiation in East China is 8400-8500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of the naphthalene method source negotiation is 8200-8300 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8400-8600 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the market, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride is slightly increased due to the support of market cost.

In June, the price of domestic ortho benzene first rose and then fell, and the overall trend was flat. The on-site price was 8800 yuan / ton, up 4.88% from the price of 8800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The cost impact of the phthalic anhydride market was that the price of domestic ortho benzene first rose and then fell. In June, the price of imported ortho benzene in the port area rose slightly, and the external quotation of ortho benzene rose slightly. Recently, the inventory of ortho benzene in the port area was general, and the external quotation of ortho benzene mainly rose. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation, According to the detailed discussion of actual documents, the price of raw material o-benzene is favorable to the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride rises slightly.

In June, the downstream DOP market price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply. According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic DOP price was 9875 yuan / ton by the end of the month, with a sharp drop of 17.10%. The cost of DOP raw materials in the market was adjusted weakly. The construction of DOP Enterprises was normal, the supply of DOP was sufficient, the downstream market trend declined, the downstream demand was poor, and the market transaction was poor. The plasticizer DOP market fell sharply, and the transaction price was subject to the real-time price. The DOP price was 9800-10100 yuan / ton, and the affected price increase in the phthalic anhydride market was limited.

In general, the market of plasticizers has fallen sharply, and most of the units of phthalic anhydride manufacturers are operating stably. However, the recent trend of the market price of ortho benzene has dropped, and the demand for downstream plasticizers is poor. On the whole, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will decline in the later period.