On July 12, the rare earth index was 810 points, down 14 points from yesterday, down 19.56% from 1007 points (2022-02-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 198.89% from 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index fell, the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium series fell, the price of metal praseodymium and neodymium fell by 25000 yuan / ton to 1.07 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide fell by 17500 yuan / ton to 87000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide fell by 10000 yuan / ton to 932500 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium fell by 25000 yuan / ton to 1.145 million yuan / ton, and the price of praseodymium oxide fell by 22500 yuan / ton to 925000 yuan / ton, The price of metal praseodymium fell by 15000 yuan / ton to 1.215 million yuan / ton, the price of terbium oxide fell by 100000 yuan / ton to 13.65 million yuan / ton, the price of metal terbium fell by 17.55 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide fell by 25000 yuan / ton to 2.39 million yuan / ton, the price of metal dysprosium fell by 20000 yuan / ton to 3.16 million yuan / ton, the domestic light rare earth market price fell slightly, the recent procurement was general, the price trend of dysprosium in the domestic heavy rare earth market fell, and the price of terbium fell, Downstream purchases are mainly on demand, and Myanmar prohibits exports. It is expected that the domestic rare earth market price will continue to decline in the later period.

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 11th, the average nickel market price is now 183516.67 yuan / ton, up 2.77% from the previous trading day and 32.58% year-on-year.

On Friday, the U.S. non farm data significantly exceeded expectations. Although this strengthened the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates by 75 basis points, the fear of economic recession was slightly weakened, and LUNI closed up 1.87% against the market trend the following week. The development momentum of new energy vehicles is booming, and the output of nickel mines at home and abroad has increased, while low inventories support nickel prices. In terms of fundamentals, the pressure on raw materials remains, the prices of nickel ore and ferronickel continue to fall, and the supply is expected to shrink slightly under the loss of iron mills. In terms of downstream stainless steel, steel mills have continued to reduce production, social inventories have fallen, and merchants have continued to support prices, which has slightly stabilized the price of stainless steel. However, at present, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the price support of stainless steel is weak.

Forecast: in general, although there is still pressure in the industrial chain, nickel will be supported by a certain macro level and bottom in the short term, and the price may stop falling and stabilize.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average ex factory price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in China was 10770 yuan / ton on July 4, and 10100 yuan / ton on July 8. The price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in China fell 6.22% this week.

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average ex factory price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid in China was 10666 yuan / ton on July 4, and 10433 yuan / ton on July 8. The price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid in China fell by 2.19% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell sharply this week, and the cost support was insufficient. This week, the demand in the phosphoric acid field was weak, the transaction was poor, and the manufacturers reduced their prices one after another. The market is dominated by bad news, and the weak market will continue in the short term. As of July 8, the price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid was about 10100 yuan / ton, and the price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid was about 10433 yuan / ton. The quotation of phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 9700-10650 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 9200-11200 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 10300 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is about 10600 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic market for raw phosphorus ore continued to operate at a high level and strong. The supply of phosphate rock in the quarry continues to be tight, and the shortage of medium and high-grade phosphate ore is still the same. The circulating supply of phosphate rock in the mine is limited. Many large factories mainly use phosphate rock for their own use, and there is no saleable supply externally. Some mines in Guangxi and Guizhou mainly receive orders in advance, and mining enterprises in Hebei mainly supply shareholders. The market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 1030-1100 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 930-980 yuan / ton.

The market price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell this week. At present, there are more inquiries in the yellow phosphorus market, but there are few transactions, and more purchases are made at lower prices. Some manufacturers will not make external quotations for the time being. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 33500 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 34000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 34500-35000 yuan / ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts at business news agency believed that cost support was weakened due to the price reduction of raw material yellow phosphorus again. The follow-up of terminal demand is weak, and the phosphoric acid market continues to operate weakly. It is expected that the market trend of phosphoric acid will continue to run downward in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly on the 7th, with the spot price of 58201.67 yuan / ton, down 0.4% from the previous day, down 16.77% from the beginning of the year, and down 15.09% year-on-year.

Recently, copper prices have been falling continuously. On the 6th, the dollar soared to a 20-year high, and pessimism broke out. The CNN fear greed index was only 21, and the market was in a state of extreme panic. The manufacturing PMI of Europe and the United States in June has been released, recording 53 and 52.1 respectively, both lower than that of May. New orders in the United States fell below the boom and bust line for the first time since May 2020, only 49.2. Copper fundamentals have not changed much, the focus of domestic supply is expected to rise, and smelting enthusiasm is still high; The recovery intensity of domestic consumption is weak, and downstream procurement has not improved due to the sharp decline in prices, although the current domestic inventory is still low. Copper prices are expected to remain weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride declined. As of the 6th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 8550 yuan / ton. The on-site spot supply was sufficient, and the marketing situation was general.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly, and the delivery situation in the phthalic anhydride market was general. Recently, the downstream demand changed little, the price trend of upstream orthobenzene fell sharply, the plasticizer market fell sharply, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the market was normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride was affected by the downstream, and the price trend fell. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers has not changed much. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the market is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market price trend is mainly falling. The downstream plasticizer industry market is declining, and the actual transaction is normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has declined, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of the adjacent method source negotiation in East China is 8300-8500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of the naphthalene method source negotiation is 8200-8300 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8400-8600 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. The recent decline in the market of phthalic anhydride is expected to continue to decline in the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period.