Price Trend
According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of March 4, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2480 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market performance was strong.
II. Market Analysis
Products: Domestic methanol market performance is strong. In the port market, the futures market has risen sharply, mainly in the hope of cash arbitrage. The trading atmosphere is good, and the port market rises with the market. Mainland market continued strong trend in the early period, olefin extraction supported by stable goods; plus later period equipment maintenance concentrated, supply side stock shrinkage expectations, business mindset strong, expected short-term market or maintain a volatile upward trend. In addition, the new olefin projects in Inner Mongolia and Jiangsu need continuous attention. Continuous arrangement of domestic methanol freight. The freight charges of Inner Mongolia North Line to Lubei are 290-350 yuan/ton for reference, 10 yuan/ton for low end, 290-310 yuan/ton for South line to Lubei, 10 yuan/ton for low end, 120-200 yuan/ton for part of Shanxi and 10-30 yuan/ton for North Shanxi, 140-200 yuan/ton for Guanzhong to North Shandong, 140-230 yuan/ton for South Shandong and 20 yuan/ton for high end. Xinjiang to North Shandong refers to about 790 yuan per ton.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
Industry chain: formaldehyde: formaldehyde market is running steadily. Each enterprise’s offer is temporarily stable, start-up load is rising, downstream demand is recovering, but downstream formaldehyde is more resistant to the rise, the overall follow-up is limited. At present, the cost of formaldehyde market is at a high level, the overall inventory pressure is not large, but the follow-up of demand is limited. It is expected that the short-term market will be reorganized and operated. Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market is obviously weak. The North China supplier’s price drop aggravates the market’s hollowness in the latter part of the acetic acid market. The market has no buying intention for the declining acetic acid, and the market turnover is cold. Export is not good for the time being, and the market is becoming worse and worse. At present, the domestic acetic acid plant as a whole starts at a high level and the downstream demand digestion is slow, which leads to the situation that the market supply exceeds demand continues to intensify. It is expected that the weak acetic acid market will continue to dominate. Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether prices rose steadily and moderately, the trend warmed up. With the previous price dropping to a low level, terminals and traders have entered the market to stock up under the demand of bottom-copying, and the atmosphere of negotiation is good. The manufacturer delivers a large number of goods, and the inventory has basically returned to a controllable state. After the deep fall in the earlier period, most manufacturers’profits are hanging upside down at present, with a strong price mentality, and there is still room for dimethyl ether to rise.
3. Future Market Forecast
On the positive side, futures: futures market has risen sharply, driving the spot market to rise; domestic installations: Mainland based on spring inspection and other factors, and under the influence of environmental protection policies, maintenance enterprises have increased, local supply or contraction in the latter period; olefins: olefin procurement, pre-sale is good, supporting the price of raw material methanol. On the negative side, inventory: high inventory in the port area is difficult to digest in the short term, and the inventory pressure is high; freight: local freight of methanol has fallen significantly in the near future, which makes the cost of arrival slightly loose. Methanol analysts at business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will rise slightly.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |