Price Trend
According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of zinc fell first and then rose after the shock adjustment in February. As of Feb. 28, the price of zinc ingot was 22006.67 yuan/ton, down 523.33 yuan/ton, or 2.32 percent, from 22530.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In February, the price of zinc fell first and then rose. Zinc market struggled and adjusted concussively.
II. Market Trend Analysis
In terms of products:
In February, the price of zinc ingot in LME market was adjusted by price fluctuation. As of February 28, the closing price of zinc in LME market in London was 2750 US dollars/ton, which was 26 US dollars/ton higher than the opening price of zinc in early February. The price fluctuation adjustment of zinc price resulted in a slight increase in spot zinc price. In February, the stock of zinc futures in LME market in London dropped sharply. As of February 27, the stock of zinc futures was 67 825 tons, which was 113200 tons higher than that in early February. Inventory has fallen sharply, which is good for zinc market.
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On February 28, the closing price of zinc futures in Shanghai futures market was 21885 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton from the opening price of 22325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and in February, the price of zinc futures fell sharply, which had a negative impact on the spot zinc market. In February, the zinc futures inventory in Shanghai futures market increased sharply, and as of February 28, the zinc futures inventory increased sharply, resulting in a negative impact on the zinc market.
data statistics
According to data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG), the global zinc supply shortage was 384,000 tons in 2018 and 442,000 tons in 2017. According to a report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global supply of zinc in 2018 was in excess of 48.5 million tons, while the supply shortage in 2017 was 438,000 tons. Overall, the supply of zinc increased in 2018, and the supply of zinc gradually changed from short supply to over demand. The growth of zinc supply has a negative impact on zinc city.
3. Prospects for the Future Market
Bai Jiaxin, a business analyst, believes that after the Spring Festival of 2019, the supply of zinc in China has been concentrated and the stock of zinc ingots in futures market has soared, which has a big negative impact on zinc market. On the demand side, with the recovery of enterprises and the gradual start of infrastructure projects after the festival, the demand for zinc ingots has gradually warmed up, but the demand for zinc ingots has obviously not kept pace with the increase in supply, and the zinc ingot Market is bright and bright. Obviously, in the global zinc market in 2018, there will be a shortage of supply to excess supply. In 2019, the supply of zinc will remain high, but the macroeconomic weakness, the demand of zinc market has not improved significantly. In the future, the excess supply of zinc market may increase, the pressure of zinc price decline will increase, and the adjustment of zinc price fluctuation in the future market may be greater. In the long run, the global economy will rebound slightly but not optimistically in 2019. The macroeconomic benefits of zinc market are limited. The rebound of zinc market is insufficient. The space for zinc price to rise is limited. There is still room for zinc price to rise in March. However, the price of zinc ingots will rise or remain low. The price of zinc ingots may be adjusted by shocks between 2000 and 23000.
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