The natural rubber market fluctuated and rose in August. As of August 27th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 17791 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.94% from 16483 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The intense long short game is supported by raw material costs, but downstream demand is weak, which restricts the extent of price increases.
Although Southeast Asia has entered a peak period for rubber cutting, rainfall has disrupted the pace of rubber cutting, and the release of raw materials has fallen short of expectations. Thai cup rubber remains at a high level of 70 baht/kg. Due to excessive rainfall in domestic production areas such as Hainan and Yunnan, processing plants are rushing to collect raw materials, resulting in a tight supply of spot goods.
On the inventory side, there was a slight destocking. As of August 23, 2026, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 631500 tons, a decrease of 1.65%, and continued to be slightly destocked. However, there is still an increase in overseas arrivals, and the absolute level of inventory is still at a high level.
The tire industry is in a traditional off-season, with 64.15% of sample enterprises producing all steel tires and 65.81% producing semi steel tires, a year-on-year decrease of 6.06% in semi steel tire production. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase for essential needs and have weak willingness to actively replenish inventory, resulting in significant resistance to high price transactions. The market is expected to experience the peak season of “golden September and silver October” in trading, but terminal orders have not substantially improved, making it difficult to drive rubber prices to continue rising.
Market forecast:
From a technical perspective, the August rubber price rebounded from the low point in late July, reaching the 5-day, 10 day, and 20 day moving averages. The short-term moving averages are in a bullish trend, indicating a strong trend. The early correction is sufficient, the bottom has been built at a low level, and there is ample short-term rebound momentum. But there is pressure in the early oscillation range above, and it is difficult to break through directly in the short term. It is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards in the future. If the price stabilizes at the short-term moving average, there is still room for further upward momentum; If it falls below the 10 day moving average, it will once again enter a period of consolidation and volatility, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the moving average support.
From a fundamental perspective, natural rubber prices are expected to maintain a high range of volatility in the short term. Constrained by the reality of demand, break through the limited space upwards; Supported by raw material costs, the downward space is limited. Focus on tracking Southeast Asian weather, tire production, and inventory changes in Qingdao. If the rainfall in the production area continues, there is a possibility of a pulse increase in prices.
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