The epoxy chloropropane market has been operating steadily this week. As of October 15th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin was 11200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The high price of raw material propylene provides strong cost support for epichlorohydrin. In terms of glycerol, external prices have weakened and demand is poor, but prices remain firm in the context of tight domestic supply. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 15th, the benchmark price of propylene was 10701.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.23% compared to the beginning of this month (9707.67 yuan/ton).
Supply side: The contraction trend is relatively clear. This week, some facilities in Jiangsu, Shandong and other regions stopped and operated with reduced load, and the previously stopped facilities have not been restarted. This week, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic ECH industry has dropped to 44.5%, further decreasing compared to the previous period, and the overall market supply has significantly decreased compared to last week.
On the demand side: focusing on immediate needs and limited volume. The main downstream epoxy resin market saw a slight increase this week, but terminal demand maintained a rigid procurement rhythm and there was no concentrated replenishment behavior. Downstream acceptance of high priced goods is limited, and actual transactions are mainly based on small orders for essential needs. The demand side lacks sustained upward pressure on prices.
Market forecast: Analysts believe that in the short term, there will be a strong consolidation and limited upward space. The logic of current supply contraction and cost support still exists, and ECH prices are expected to maintain a strong pattern in the short term. However, there is a lack of substantial volume on the demand side, and the weak operation of glycerol prices may weaken the subsequent cost support. It is expected that the ECH market will maintain a narrow range of fluctuations next week, with a focus on changes in the pace of device restarts and downstream inventory replenishment willingness.
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