1、 Market Overview
The National Day holiday has ended, and the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has fluctuated downward, with the market continuing to weaken. As of October 13th, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) was 3316.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.99% compared to the beginning of this month (3350.00 yuan/ton).
After the holiday, the mainstream price of 62% white potassium in ports decreased by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the price of white potassium in Laos decreased by 50-80 yuan/ton. Low price transactions have emerged in the market, and traders have a strong willingness to ship, causing the market transaction center to shift downward.
3、 Fundamental Logic
supply side
The supply side has abundant sources of goods, and the market is under significant pressure. The domestic potassium chloride plant is running smoothly, with continuous external shipments of goods and firm factory quotations, but the actual circulating price has already broken through. The import of potassium chloride is scheduled to arrive at the port normally, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The social circulation of goods is sufficient, and traders have a strong willingness to ship. Market competition is intensifying, and some goods are being shipped at a discount, further dragging down the spot transaction price.
Demand side
The weak downstream demand is the core factor behind the current market downturn. Under the autumn fertilizer preparation cycle, the operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises is relatively low compared to the same period last year, and the purchasing enthusiasm of enterprises is insufficient. They only maintain small orders for essential replenishment and have weak willingness to stock up in large quantities. The imbalance between supply and demand has intensified, new orders are deadlocked, terminal wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and there is a lack of centralized procurement to drive, making it difficult to support the price of potassium chloride.
4、 Market analysis and judgment
The short-term imported potassium chloride market is likely to maintain a weak downward trend and a low-level oscillation pattern. On the technical side, the moving average has crossed below, and the bearish signal is clear. The price position throughout the cycle is at a low level, but the supply and demand fundamentals have not improved yet. The pressure of high inventory in ports continues to exist, and there is limited room for downstream compound fertilizer production to increase. The demand pull is insufficient, and the phenomenon of traders offering discounts for shipments will continue.
Subsequent focus will be on changes in port inventory, compound fertilizer operating rate, import shipping schedule arrival rhythm, and international potassium fertilizer price trends. If downstream centralized replenishment has not yet been initiated, there is still room for further downward exploration of potassium chloride prices.
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