1、 Price trend
As of August 19th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China is 6433 yuan/ton, with mainstream production in Shandong at 5956-6600 yuan/ton and Shenmu Rich Oil at 5956 yuan/ton. The high price area in East China is returning to below 7800 yuan, with a shortage of large orders and a predominance of small orders for urgent needs. High end quotations have price but no market.
2、 Market analysis
Market aspect: Plant start-up: The overall start-up rate of domestic cyclohexane plants is 62-66%, and social inventory is above average. Supply characteristics: price increases are driven by costs and supported by suppliers, not due to stock shortages; The factory inventory is above average and there are few large orders. Traders generally offer discounts for shipments, and the supply side has limited upward price elasticity.
In terms of cost, pure benzene from Sinopec has been listed for three consecutive increases in mid August, with a cumulative increase of+650 to 8000 yuan/ton, and spot prices in East China ranging from 8180 to 8300 yuan/ton; The commercial inventory of Jiangsu ports has dropped to 29000 tons (month on month -27.5%, year-on-year -79.86%), with historical low destocking, marginal support for aromatics from oil blending/disproportionation profits, crude oil: US Iran conflict+Hormuz navigation concerns, WTI returning to 80+, oil distribution 91+US dollars/barrel, naphtha pure benzene cyclohexane cost chain moving up, and hydrogenated benzene 6275 yuan/ton synchronously strong.
Downstream demand: The production of caprolactam industry is about 68%, and the transaction volume of East China liquid is 12100 yuan/ton (although the cost has increased, the downstream PA6 production is about 64%, making it difficult to transmit high prices, and only low inventory raw materials are needed for replenishment). Adipic acid/cyclohexanone: The production of adipic acid industry is about 64%, and it has been pushed up by pure benzene to 8100-8300 yuan/ton, but the factory’s theoretical loss is over 1000 yuan, downstream PBAT production is only 20%, and PA66 is less than 50%, making it weak to catch up with high prices; The cyclohexanone plant is operating at 70-75% capacity, with a slight increase in the horizontal trend.
On the supply side, price increases are driven by cost push and supported by stockholders, rather than stock shortages. The factory inventory is above average and there are few large orders. Traders generally offer discounts for shipments, and the supply side has limited upward price elasticity.
3、 Future forecast
Cyclohexane analysts believe that due to the extremely low inventory of pure benzene ports and the lingering geopolitical premium of crude oil, cyclohexane is prone to rise but difficult to fall. The benchmark price is seen as 6500-6900 yuan/ton, and the Shandong ex factory price range of 6200-6600 yuan/ton is relatively strong; If pure benzene rises and falls back, cyclohexane will stop rising and remain sideways, making it difficult to rise independently.
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