1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within the range this week (9.1-5), and the price performance was weak. As of Friday, the average P-value of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4664 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.26% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, PVC remained weak and volatile, with most manufacturers maintaining stable quotes and some making slight adjustments within 50 yuan/ton. Specific reasons: Firstly, the lack of favorable fundamentals has resulted in weak sustainability of crude oil prices, which have been hovering at low levels; The futures market has also shown weakness. Affected by this, the spot price of PVC is unlikely to have a strong trend, and the overall trading range remains at last week’s level. In terms of supply and demand, the spot PVC market has shown a loose supply and demand situation, with most manufacturers’ equipment operating stably. Supply is showing a slow growth trend, and supply pressure still exists. Social inventory is in the stage of accumulation. The more important aspect is that downstream demand has shown insufficient performance, and the peak demand season has not yet arrived, resulting in poor export performance. Distributors’ offers are generally weak, downstream inquiries and procurement enthusiasm are not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging price is low, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in East China is mostly around 4630-4760 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the performance of the calcium carbide market has been average this week, with prices consistently running at a low level. Although prices have turned red this week, the increase is limited, which has limited support for PVC. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the increase this week is 0.7%.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current PVC spot market performance is sluggish, and it is expected that there may still be little improvement next week. Specifically, from three aspects, on the supply side, it is expected that the sea level and Inner Mongolia Jun will start operating after equipment maintenance next week, with an expected increase in production. On the demand side, there is no sign of improvement in the short-term production of downstream plastic manufacturing in China, and domestic demand is running at a low level; Exports are affected by India’s anti-dumping measures, and the medium and long term also show a bearish trend. On the cost side, the price range of calcium carbide is running, and the boost is limited. It is expected that PVC will continue its weak market next week against the backdrop of weak supply and demand and limited cost support.
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