Domestic cobalt prices rose first and then fell in March
According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on March 29th was 224000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47% compared to the cobalt price of 218600 yuan/ton on March 1st; Compared to the cobalt price of 227000 yuan/ton on March 19th, it decreased by 1.32%. The import volume of cobalt raw materials increased year-on-year, and the demand for cobalt in the market grew less than expected. The support for the rise in cobalt prices was limited, and cobalt prices rose first and then fell in March.
Domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased
According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in February, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 464000 and 477000 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 16% and 9.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to February, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.252 million and 1.207 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 29.4%, and a market share of 30%.
The China Passenger Car Association released an analysis of the national passenger car market for February 2024. In terms of wholesale sales, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 447000 units in February, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% and a month on month decrease of 35.0%. In terms of retail sales, the new energy vehicle market sold 388000 units in February, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6% and a month on month decrease of 42.1%.
In February, the sales of new energy vehicles decreased year-on-year, leading to a decrease in demand in the cobalt market. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased year-on-year, but decreased month on month. The support for the increase in demand in the cobalt market is insufficient. The Ministry of Commerce has shown significant results in promoting the “100 City Linkage” Automobile Festival and the “Thousand Counties and Ten Thousand Towns” New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season, with continuous efforts in promoting consumption policies in multiple regions, stimulating more demand for car purchases. The sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase, and the demand for cobalt in the future is expected to rebound.
Mobile phone sales have increased
According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in February 2024, the domestic market shipped 14.257 million mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 32.9%. Among them, there were 12.532 million 5G mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 29.2%, accounting for 87.9% of the same period’s mobile phone shipments. From January to February 2024, the domestic market shipped 46.035 million mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%. Among them, there were 38.697 million 5G mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, accounting for 84.1% of the same period’s mobile phone shipments. The sales of mobile phones have increased year-on-year, and the demand for cobalt in the market has steadily increased.
According to the latest forecast from IDC’s global quarterly smartphone tracking report, smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.2 billion units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Overall smartphone trading volume is still lower than pre pandemic levels, but the market has self corrected and is emerging from a downturn. In the future, the sales of mobile phones will increase, and the demand for cobalt will rebound.
According to Canalys data, in January 2024, the shipment volume of smartphones in the five major markets in Southeast Asia surged to 7.26 million units, a 20% year-on-year increase. The sales of mobile phones in the Southeast Asian market are soaring, and the demand for mobile phones is increasing. The demand for cobalt in the international market is also increasing.
From domestic and global mobile phone sales, it can be seen that in the fourth quarter of 2023, domestic mobile phone sales rebounded, and the domestic mobile phone market slowly recovered; The sales of mobile phones in the Southeast Asian market are soaring, and the global mobile phone market is expected to rebound in 2024, leading to an increase in the global mobile phone market. Overall, global and domestic mobile phone market sales have slowly rebounded, and the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market has rebounded.
The import volume of cobalt raw materials increased year-on-year
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of cobalt raw materials in January was 69453 physical tons, equivalent to 20938 metal tons, an increase of 32.95% month on month and 133.65% year-on-year. The import volume of cobalt raw materials in February was 44761 physical tons, equivalent to 13585 metal tons, a month on month decrease of 35.12% and a year-on-year increase of 76.26%. The total import volume of cobalt raw materials from January to February was 114214 tons, equivalent to 34523 metal tons of cobalt. From January to February, cobalt raw materials gradually arrived at the port. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival, ship arrivals were delayed, and the overall arrival volume of cobalt raw materials in February decreased. It is expected that the arrival volume of cobalt raw materials in March will increase, with an expected arrival volume of 15000-16000 metal tons.
Overview and Outlook
Business Society data analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that on the demand side, global and domestic mobile phone market sales have rebounded, and the demand for cobalt in mobile phones has increased; The sales of new energy vehicles have decreased month on month, and the demand for cobalt in the market has rebounded. The growth of demand for cobalt in electric vehicles is insufficient, and the demand side has limited positive effects on the domestic cobalt market. On the supply side, the arrival of cobalt raw materials in February has slightly declined, but the expected arrival of cobalt raw materials in March has increased significantly, indicating sufficient supply in the cobalt market. Overall, the demand growth in the cobalt market is lower than expected, with sufficient supply of cobalt raw materials. The oversupply of cobalt in the market remains limited, and the support for the rise in cobalt prices is limited. It is expected that cobalt prices will remain weak and consolidate at a low level in the future.
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