1、 Price trend
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According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, pure benzene fell continuously this week, and the price fell from the high of 10000 yuan. On June 10, the price of pure benzene was 9900-10050 yuan / ton (the average price was 9984 yuan / ton). On Friday (June 17), the price of pure benzene was 9400-10000 yuan / ton (the average price was 9851 yuan / ton). The average price was 1.34% lower than last week and 27.1% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
Crude oil and pure benzene in the outer disk fell broadly, and the external information guidance weakened. The centralized maintenance period of domestic pure benzene enterprises is coming to an end, and Jiujiang Petrochemical’s new pure benzene capacity is put into operation; East China port inventory showed signs of warming, and the supply side increased. Downstream styrene and other products lost profits. Under the pressure of cost, some units were shut down and reduced in demand. Multiple negative drag, pure benzene fell this week.
This week, the price of pure benzene in East China, South China and central China of Sinopec was stable at 10000 yuan / ton, and the price of pure benzene in some factories in North China was reduced by 200 yuan / ton.
In terms of external trading, the Asian pure benzene in the external trading fell broadly this week. On Thursday (June 16), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1344 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of $108 / ton, or 7.44%; The reference import price in East China was $1340 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of $105 / ton, or 7.27%.
In terms of crude oil, the United States announced new sanctions against Iran. There is little hope that Iranian oil will return to the market. The expectation of tight global oil supply still exists. However, the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks around the world triggered concerns about economic recession. This week, international oil prices fell broadly. As of June 17, Brent fell by $8.89 / barrel, or 7.29%; WTI fell $11.11/barrel, or 9.21%.
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Downstream: styrene: styrene fell after rising slightly this week. The price was 11100 yuan / ton on June 10 and 10900 yuan / ton on June 17, down 1.8% from last week and up 23.16% from the same period last year. The crude oil price was corrected, the cost support was weak, the prices of pure benzene and ethylene fell simultaneously, which was difficult to support the styrene market. The styrene market was generally traded, and the spot price fell slightly.
Aniline: the price of aniline this week is stable and small. On June 17, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12500 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 29.23% compared with the same period last year.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
In terms of crude oil, the long short game of crude oil, the expectation of tight supply and demand growth have given support to the oil price, and the short-term price is still high. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.
Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: the international crude oil market callback, but the styrene market supply is relatively sufficient, and some styrene maintenance units may start in the second half of June. Styrene costs and pressures coexist.
Supply increases, demand weakens, and pure benzene is expected to fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.
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