1、 Price trend
According to the data of the bulk list of business society, aniline showed a ladder downward trend in November, with a small decline in the first ten days, and the price fell broadly near the end of the month. On November 1, the price in Shandong was 14000-14260 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 14500 yuan / ton; On November 30, the price of aniline in Shandong was 9200-9380 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9300-9500 yuan / ton, down 34.82% from the beginning of the month and up 22.57% from the same period last year.
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2、 Analysis and review
In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: the prices of crude oil and styrene fell continuously, and the price of pure benzene fell broadly in the month under the pressure of multiple bad news such as the accumulation of pure benzene port inventory. On January 1, the price was 7550-7803 yuan / ton (average price 7640 yuan / ton), and on November 30, the price was 6150-6650 yuan / ton (average price 6390 yuan / ton), a decrease of 16.36% this month and an increase of 52.51% over the same period last year.
Nitric acid: this month, the nitric acid market was dragged down by the decline of raw material price and insufficient demand, coupled with the increase of enterprise inventory pressure, and the quotation continued to weaken. The price of nitric acid in East China was 3286.67 yuan / ton on November 1 and 2533.33 yuan / ton on November 30, down 22.92% from the beginning of the month and up 40.74% from the same period last year.
At the beginning of this month, Shandong Jinmao and Dongying Huatai aniline plants were shut down for maintenance, and the spot supply of aniline maintained a tight pattern, but the cost was weak and volatile, the downstream purchase was dominated by rigid demand, the market lacked favorable support, and the price remained stable. With the restart of Jinmao and Huatai units, the supply in Shandong increased, the downstream enthusiasm was not high, the consumption of raw material inventory was the main, the enterprise inventory accumulated, and the price began to decline. In the middle of the month, a 100000 t / a unit in Jinling was shut down for maintenance, but it did not give a big boost to the market. Aniline market continues to weaken along with raw materials. At the end of the month, the quotation of Yantai Wanhua aniline was significantly reduced, the mentality of the industry was bad, the shipping mood was strong, and the price was continuously reduced by a wide margin.
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3、 Future forecast
In terms of raw materials and pure benzene, there are still incoming shipments in the later stage, and the port inventory is expected to continue to rise. The short-term trend of crude oil and styrene is weak, and the market rebound is weak. Restart of some downstream units or increased demand for pure benzene. On the whole, pure benzene is expected to run weakly, and there is still a possibility of decline, but the decline is limited.
In terms of nitric acid, the raw material support is insufficient, the market demand for nitric acid is poor, the enterprise inventory pressure is high, and the price of nitric acid is expected to be dominated by weak operation.
The prices of pure benzene and nitric acid are both low. On the supply side, Shandong Jinling and Jiangsu Fuqiang aniline plants were shut down for maintenance, the load of Nanhua plant was increased, the supply in Shandong was stable, and the sales in East China increased. Downstream demand is dominated by rigid demand, with strong resistance to high price aniline. Overall, the cost support of aniline is weak and the spot supply is loose, but after a wide decline, it is expected to be weak and stable in the short term. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the changes of market supply and demand, the dynamics of aniline plant and the trend of raw materials.
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