According to the monitoring data of business society, as of March 14, the average price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was RMB 14966 / T, down 1.10% compared with the price of 1 March (average price of n-butanol reference of 15133 yuan / ton).
In a short 10 day history, butanol prices soared 64 percent
Since February 18, after the Spring Festival, in just ten days, the domestic n-butanol market has staged a scene that has not passed in the past decade. The price of n-butanol has risen 64% in ten days.
Stability under high position: butanol market fell in March
The high level of butanol is nearly March. However, the hidden danger of the surge appeared in early March. The downstream conflict with high prices gradually rose, the market activity atmosphere was stagnant. Since March, the price of the quotation of n-butanol factory gradually declined, and the mentality of the industry weakened some downstream users to digest the raw material reserve, and the high-end market quotation was under pressure. By 5 days, the factory price reference of n-butanol in Shandong Province was made In 14000-15000 yuan / ton, the price fell 300-800 yuan / ton from the first day, down more than 5% and the market remained low.
Tenacious trend to meet rebound price and set “high point” again
On August 8, stimulated by the maintenance of foreign octanol units, the domestic downstream exports of n-butanol increased, the market trading atmosphere was warmer, the factory limited orders were received, and the ex factory price of n-butanol rebounded sharply. On the 10th, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province rose to 15200-15500 yuan / T, with the average price reference at 15300 yuan / T, and the market price rebounded rapidly, and the price rose 500-1200 yuan / T compared with that of 5 days, which has exceeded the month On the first day, the price reached a high of nearly 10 years.
“Deadlock” in the downstream cost bearing heavy n-butanol transaction
However, the so-called “high place is too cold”, the market of n-butanol under high level is once again in a situation of domestic demand turning light, and the cost pressure is increasing. The main downstream butyl alcohol users slow down the purchase of raw materials, the new transaction atmosphere of new orders in the market is flat, the normal butanol industry is active in shipping, and the focus of the talks in the n-butanol market on November and December has been moving down continuously, the high-end offer is slow to go, and the inventory of n-butanol in some factories is tired In addition, the atmosphere in the field is weak and cold.
As of the 14th day, the factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was near the range of 14700-15300 yuan / T, and the low-end quotation fell to 14500 yuan / T. compared with two days ago, the maximum decline was nearly 1000 yuan / T, and the average price of n-butanol was RMB 14966 / T. compared with 10 days, the average price was decreased by 334 yuan / T, down 2.18% in two days. Compared with the previous day, the price was down 166 yuan / ton, or 1.10%.
Upstream, according to the price map of business agency, affected by upstream and downstream, propylene prices rose repeatedly in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. At the beginning of the month, it was stable. On the 4th, the price began to decline, and the price generally rose on the 8th. The two days rose 150-250 yuan / ton, and the price was generally stable. The current market transaction was between 8450 yuan and 8650 yuan / ton, with the mainstream price of about 8450 yuan / ton. The low temperature impact of the United States is still in existence, and the capacity is generally recovered; the impact of propylene in Japan has been reduced and the capacity is slightly recovered.
Demand has a profound impact on the short-term n-butanol market, which is still likely to continue to loosen
From the current trend, although the price of butanol is down again, the overall reduction is not large, the high-end offer price is still at 15300 yuan / ton, and the market is still in high-level operation. Therefore, the analysts of normal butanol of business agency believe that, from the current factory price of n-butanol, it is difficult to stimulate a large-scale replenishment in the downstream. Downstream customers continue to wait for the purchase, and the demand can not be improved In other words, the inventory of n-butanol plant will gradually accumulate, so the analysts of normal butanol data of business agency believe that the factory will continue to reduce the delivery price of n-butanol in order to stimulate more shipments, and the market will continue to weaken and loosen.
| PVA |