1、 Price trend
According to the data of the business club’s block list, toluene rose first and then fell this week, and the price rose slightly compared with last week. On March 7, the price of toluene was 5825 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (March 14), the price was 5877.5 yuan / ton, up 52.5 yuan / ton or 0.9% from last week.
2、 Analysis and comment
This week, Sinopec’s Toluene price adjustment range is – 50 / + 300 (yuan / ton). Toluene stocks at ports in East and South China fell this week. Toluene market is limited by weak downstream demand, general negotiation within the week, and market participants are cautious. In terms of external market, the price range of toluene in external market fluctuated this week. As of March 12, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 742 US dollars / ton, up 7 US dollars / ton or 0.95% compared with March 5. The price of imported toluene from East China was 760 US dollars / ton, stable compared with March 5.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil showed a rising and falling trend this week. OPEC + decided to extend production reduction, and OPEC raised its oil demand forecast to support oil prices. However, the rapid rise caused market concerns. On March 5, Brent rose $0.28/barrel, or 0.41%; WTI fell $0.28/barrel, or 0.42%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China dropped slightly this week, with domestic goods at 19166.67 yuan / ton, down 0.43% from last week and up 72.67% from the same period last year. The domestic market was reorganized and operated, the offer on the floor moved down, the trading atmosphere was light, the terminal’s overall willingness to receive goods was weak, the purchase was just needed, and the trading and buying were general.
In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week was stable compared with last week, at 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year and 21.82% over the same period last year. The domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, and the domestic supply of p-xylene is general. As of the 12th, the closing prices in Asia were $838-840 / T FOB Korea and $856-858 / T CFR China. South Korea’s price decline was mainly driven by the overall price decline of polyester industry.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.
Toluene cost side support is strong; downstream demand follow-up is general, rigid demand is the main. It is expected that the price of toluene will be mainly consolidated in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the international trend of crude oil, the arrival of toluene in Hong Kong, the dynamic situation of domestic enterprises and the impact of downstream demand changes on the price of toluene.
| PVA |