According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market has continued to rise since the Qingming Festival. From April 6th to May 8th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 10220 yuan/ton to 12414 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 21.74% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 48.40%.

The main reason for the increase in BDO prices this time is due to the supply side, with most of the major production enterprises undergoing device maintenance. Although some devices have restarted over time, the overall market operating rate is still below 60%. At the same time, some enterprises have outsourced their products to meet the production needs of the industrial chain, and the bidding prices for outsourcing are relatively high, which once boosted the market atmosphere. Production enterprises and traders actively support the market, but the demand from downstream terminals is average, and their ability to accept high prices is limited. The market operates at a high level, but the trading volume is limited.

Cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market is mainly operating at a low level, with a decrease of 3.18% over the same period. Insufficient order follow-up, high inventory pressure, and average calcium carbide shipment. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market is mainly weak, with a decrease of 1.28% over the same period. The market for methanol raw material coal is sluggish, and the overall market circulation is large. The supply-demand contradiction is still enveloping the methanol market. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has been operating at low levels, and there is currently no significant improvement in the cost of BDO.

On the demand side, some downstream manufacturers are chasing up and stocking up before the holiday. Holders have a strong willingness to sell at low prices, and the market center is strong and upward. In the short term after the holiday, downstream manufacturers mainly consume inventory, and currently, high prices are mostly wait-and-see. Specifically, the PTMEG spandex industry chain is at a high starting point; The operating load of PU slurry and TPU industry in the polyurethane field is 50%. Maintain just needed orders. The demand for short-term BDO is mixed.

In the future, it is predicted that device restart, parking maintenance, or load reduction operations will all exist, resulting in a decrease in overall market supply. However, considering the average follow-up of terminal demand, BDO analysts from the business agency predict that the domestic BDO market may experience high volatility.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market has been declining recently. On May 6th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 9166 yuan/ton, but the raw material price continued to decline, and the cost support performance of carbon black became increasingly weak.

Cost: recently, the market price of raw material coal tar has been fluctuating and falling, and the market price of coal tar has been falling, which has depressed the market price of coal tar. The international crude oil price continues to fluctuate, and the raw material market is unstable. This week, the price is weak, and there is no significant positive trend on the cost side. In the short term, it is still difficult for the market to find favorable support, and there is a pessimistic atmosphere on the market.

Supply and demand side: Currently, carbon black manufacturers have produced carbon black from high priced raw materials in the early stage, and there is a buildup of inventory on site. Some carbon black enterprises have arranged for a slight reduction in their inventory, resulting in a slight decline in the carbon black market operation. Downstream market procurement is cautious, with most of them focusing on hard demand, and carbon black enterprises are under high shipping pressure.

In terms of downstream tire companies and other rubber product industries, the overall operating rate remains stable. However, due to the weak downward trend of carbon black prices, the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase goods is generally cooled by trading, bearish in the future market, and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, resulting in weak transactions in the carbon black market.

Overall, raw material prices are weak, market bearish elements are abundant, carbon black cost price support is weakened, terminal bearish mentality is intensified, and both supply and demand sides are dominated by bearish sentiment. There is currently no positive phenomenon on the market, and it is expected that carbon black will be weak in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, after the May Day holiday, the hydrogen peroxide market experienced a tightening of supply, improving terminal demand, and a significant increase in the market. On May 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 740 yuan/ton. On May 4th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 983 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 32.88%.

Tight supply and significant increase in hydrogen peroxide market after the holiday

In April, the demand for terminal printing and paper industries was poor, and the hydrogen peroxide market fell weakly, oscillating for nearly a month. On April 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 876 yuan/ton. On April 30th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 766 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 12.55%.

During the May Day holiday, the supply of hydrogen peroxide in the market showed a tense situation. After the holiday, the prices quoted by hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have skyrocketed, with mainstream prices ranging from 950 to 1050 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 to 250 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that due to the difficulty in restoring hydrogen peroxide devices in the short term and the continued tight market supply pattern, the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to remain high in the future.

April plasticizer product DOTP fell weakly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 28th, the average price of DOTP was 9811 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.67% compared to the average price of 10080 yuan/ton on April 1st. Plasticizer enterprises have started construction at a low level, raw material prices have decreased, market transactions have been cold, and the actual transaction price center has shifted downwards. In April, DOTP prices fell weakly.

Market situation of raw material products

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 28th, the price of isooctanol was 9157.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88% compared to the price of isooctanol on April 1st, which was 9428.57 yuan/ton. In April, the production of isooctanol enterprises was at a low level, and the supply of isooctanol decreased. The production of plasticizer enterprises was temporarily stable at a low level, and the weak consolidation of isooctanol will be the main trend in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 28th, the price of PTA was 6180 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.51% compared to the price of 6404.55 yuan/ton on April 1st. In April, PTA prices fluctuated and fell in an “M-shaped” pattern; Crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, and PTA cost support has weakened. In April, the PTA market fell weakly.

Import and export data statistics

According to import and export data released by the customs, the cumulative export volume of DOTP from January to March 2023 was 1091.7 tons, a year-on-year surge. The cumulative import volume of DOTP from January to March 2023 was 7687.63 tons, a significant decrease year-on-year. In 2023, DOTP exports increased, imports decreased, and the import volume far exceeded the export volume. The domestic plasticizer market had sufficient supply, and the downward pressure on DOTP increased.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in April, the price of DOTP plasticizer raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell, while PTA prices fluctuated and fell, resulting in a decrease in raw material costs. On the demand side, downstream demand is weak. Overall, the demand for cost reduction is weak, and the market for plasticizer DOTP is weak and declining.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3220 yuan/ton on April 1, 3037 yuan/ton on April 27, and the market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 5.67% this month.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of 64% of diammonium phosphate in the market was 3987 yuan/ton on April 1, and 3893 yuan/ton on April 27. The market price of diammonium phosphate fell 2.36% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate continued to decline this month. The prices of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur have fallen, weakening cost support. Downstream demand is sluggish, with few new orders and sporadic purchases, and the focus of market transactions is constantly shifting downwards. As of April 27th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton, while the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan region is around 3000-3050 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus.

The price of diammonium phosphate fluctuated and fell this month. The prices of raw materials continue to weaken, and cost support is weak. Spring is coming to an end, and downstream demand is light, with a small amount of procurement as the main focus, and market trading performance is average. As of April 27th, 64% of the diammonium market in Hubei region is priced at around 3900 yuan/ton, 64% of the diammonium market in Shandong region is priced at around 4000 yuan/ton, and 64% of the mainstream transaction prices in North China are priced at 3850-3930 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

The raw material phosphate ore market is generally weak and moving downwards this month in the domestic phosphate ore market. In early April, due to the downward trend of the yellow phosphorus market in the downstream of the industrial chain, downstream operations began at a reduced rate. The demand for phosphate ore in some regions of China became loose, and the wait-and-see atmosphere on the market was strong. Some mining companies lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore by around 10-30 yuan/ton. Subsequently, in mid April, the phosphorus ore market as a whole remained weak and stable, and towards the end of the month, some mining companies in Sichuan region adjusted their phosphorus ore prices downwards by around 10-20 yuan/ton.

The market for raw sulfur has continued to decline in domestic sulfur prices this month. The sulfur market in East China continues to be weak and downward, with domestic refineries operating normally and market supply stable. The end industry has entered a off-season, with weak downstream demand and poor refinery sales. Enterprise quotations have been lowered to stimulate shipments, but downstream purchasing is limited and the market lacks positive support, resulting in a weak sulfur trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the recent trend in raw material prices has been poor, and the cost support for ammonium phosphate is weak. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish, and shippers have a strong willingness to ship. The market price of ammonium phosphate is expected to continue to decline in the short term under the influence of both cost and demand.