price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in early March continued the previous weak trend, with most spot prices of various brands operating at low levels. As of March 10th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16000 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.41% compared to early March.

cause analysis

On the supply side: In March, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises increased at a high level, and the current industry average operating rate remained unchanged from 86% at the beginning of March. The weekly average production is close to a super high level of 70000 tons, and the on-site supply is very abundant. Some manufacturers have lowered their factory prices at low levels. The mid stream inventory position is relatively high, and the on-site pricing continues to be sluggish. The market supply side has poor support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the long positions of bisphenol A have gradually exhausted in the early stage, while since March, both upstream acetone and phenol have fallen, which has dampened the confidence of industry players in cost value. At the same time, the demand for bisphenol A is generally low, and the downward pressure on prices is increasing. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is relatively weak.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall market in early March continued to maintain a light pre holiday level. As of March 10th, the load increase of downstream factories has not been significant, resulting in poor stocking efforts of end enterprises and a focus on weak demand in procurement logic. And there is still a certain amount of inventory to be digested, and the supply-demand contradiction pattern continues to be profound. The wait-and-see attitude of businesses is biased, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods, increasing the pressure for businesses to sell. The circulation of goods in the market is slow, and the overall trading situation continues to be light. The demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

The domestic PC market fell at a low level in early March. The upstream bisphenol A market still has weak expectations after the current decline, which weakens the support for PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is fluctuating at a high level, and the supply is loose. Industry inventory is high, and supply pressure is increasing instead of decreasing. The current downstream demand follow-up is still slow, the new order situation is not good, and the supply-demand contradiction is deepening. It is expected that PC will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 7th, the average sales price of PET was 6162 yuan/ton, which was dragged down by the raw material price. This week, the price showed a weak downward trend.

In terms of cost, the international crude oil market was affected by geopolitical easing, OPEC+production expectations, and the accumulation of US refined oil inventories. The weekly average price of Brent crude oil fell 2.15% month on month to $73.87 per barrel, weakening the cost support of the polyester industry chain. The PTA processing fee is at a low level (300-350 yuan/ton), and the improvement of the supply and demand structure of ethylene glycol is limited. The price focus of both has shifted downwards, further dragging down the cost of polyester bottle chips.

On the supply side: The polyester bottle chip industry is at the end of its capacity expansion cycle, with plans to add 2.15 million tons of new production capacity by 2025. Coupled with the current high inventory level during the same period, market concerns about oversupply have intensified. Despite weak demand, the operating rates of major production enterprises remain high, leading to a continuous increase in supply and exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.

In terms of demand, downstream enterprises have limited demand for replenishing inventory after the holiday, and traders and end users are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The market lacks momentum in chasing price increases, and actual transactions are light. The weak recovery of terminal demand in the polyester industry chain and the accumulation of inventory of polyester filament and other products indirectly affect the confidence of the bottle chip market.

In response to the current market situation, Shengyi Society believes that the lack of upward driving force in crude oil and raw material prices, coupled with the release of new production capacity and inventory pressure, is difficult to alleviate. In the short term, the price of polyester bottle chips may continue to fluctuate weakly. The actual trend still needs to pay attention to the subsequent equipment and demand situation, as well as the cost support under the traction of crude oil.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 6th, the market price of styrene fell, with a daily decline of 0.93%. Overall, international oil prices have recently fallen, with average support from the raw material side. Supply side production has slightly declined, while port inventory remains high. Downstream production of 3S has been restored to normal levels, but inventory accumulation remains high and there is significant resistance to further increase in production. Currently, styrene is mainly constrained by the decline in crude oil prices, with a strong willingness to ship and a poor mentality, resulting in a continuous decline in styrene prices. The demand improvement needs to be restored, and it is expected that the market will consolidate and operate after a short-term decline.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the DOP price was 8326.25 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 2.92% compared to the DOP price of 8576.25 yuan/ton on February 1st. After the holiday, there was a brief increase in demand for DOP plasticizers, but as the replenishment ended, the demand for plasticizers decreased; The production of plasticizer DOP enterprises has fallen, and the supply of plasticizer DOP has tightened; The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, while the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell. The cost of plasticizer DOP decreased, and the downward pressure on plasticizers increased.

The price of raw material isooctanol first rose and then fell in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the price of isooctanol was 7666.67 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 1.71% compared to the price of 7800 yuan/ton on February 1st; Compared to February 15th, the price of isooctanol decreased by 4.37% to 8016.67 yuan/ton. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, while the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; After the holiday, plasticizer companies temporarily replenished their inventory, and the demand for isooctanol increased first and then decreased, increasing the downward pressure on isooctanol.

Demand for plasticizers decreases in February

After the Spring Festival, downstream inventory replenishment led to a brief increase in demand for plasticizers; With the end of inventory replenishment, the demand for plasticizers has fallen, and coupled with the slow start of terminal demand, the demand for plasticizers is weak. The plasticizer industry is facing a certain degree of pressure to block inventory, and unsaturated resins and other downstream industries are also facing problems such as slow terminal pickup and insufficient consumption. The growth of plasticizer demand is slow, and the support for plasticizer rise is insufficient; Plasticizer companies are operating at a low level, and the supply of plasticizers is tight.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; In terms of demand, the replenishment of inventory has ended, coupled with slow recovery of downstream production, resulting in a decrease in demand for plasticizers. In the future, with the decrease in costs and the tightening of supply and weak demand for plasticizers, it is expected that the price of DOP plasticizers will fluctuate and fall.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4280 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF market price is mainly stable, and the price is mainly stable.

2、 Market analysis

This week, DMF prices have remained stable. Currently, downstream demand for DMF is average, with rigid procurement being the main focus. The overall market supply and demand are balanced. The reference price for DMF spot delivery in Shandong and surrounding areas is 4400 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions it is around 4500 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with insufficient driving force for price increases.