According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of boric acid decreased in January. As of January 24th, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market was 7400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month, and decreased by 0.50% compared to the average market price of 7437.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. At present, the quotation range for domestic boric acid traders is between 6900-7700 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price for different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated).

 

At present, the foreign quotation for imported goods is concentrated between 7500-7800 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average market price of imported boric acid is 7737.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43% compared to the average market price of 7850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

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The price of ethylene glycol rose in January

 

The price of ethylene glycol increased in January. According to data from Business Society, as of January 23, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4536.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.32% from the beginning of the month. Prices in various regions are as follows:

 

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4600-4700 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4550 yuan/ton, while the mainstream spot manufacturers in Central China have a price range of 4500 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

 

The price of ethylene glycol has risen significantly since December 2023 due to the impact of overseas device news and continuous inventory depletion. Currently, the price has exceeded the highest level in 2023, with an increase of 9.76% compared to the quotation on December 15th.

 

Continuous month on month inventory removal

 

As of January 22, 2024, the inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 884900 tons, which was 1225500 tons higher than the high inventory level (December 7, 2023), and continued to decline unilaterally by 340600 tons.

 

The continuous month on month inventory removal at the port is mainly due to overseas equipment maintenance, but the arrival volume is relatively low. According to market news, among overseas ethylene glycol units, Saudi Arabia has resumed work on one 700000 ton/year unit in mid January, and the other four units are still under maintenance; On the US side, 1.46 million units per year have been shut down due to the impact of the cold wave. Specifically, the 360000 ton South Asia No.1 plant in the United States was shut down this week due to a preventive cold wave, and the plant was recently restarted due to heating up. The other set of 828000 ton unit has been shut down for maintenance since December 23, and the catalyst will be replaced by the end of February. It is planned to restart by the end of March; The 260000 ton/year ethylene glycol unit of Sasol in the United States was shut down on January 16th, while another 360000 ton/year ethylene glycol unit of Indorama was shut down on January 17th.

 

The downward movement of domestic inventory is the main data support for the recent rise in ethylene glycol prices. However, in the later stage, attention should still be paid to the sustainability of the impact of the US cold wave on the installation, whether the Saudi installation will resume work early, and the changes in the impact of the Red Sea incident on domestic shipping.

 

The operating rate of domestic facilities has rebounded due to the impact of rising prices; The production in December 2023 reached 1.465 million tons, an increase of 4.6% compared to the previous month.

 

In terms of imports and exports, the monthly import volume of ethylene glycol in China in December 2023 was 580400 tons, with a cumulative import volume of 7.148 million tons. The import volume decreased by 16.28% month on month, increased by 4.78% year-on-year, and the cumulative import volume decreased by 4.83% compared to the same period last year.

 

Downstream demand off-season expectations

 

The current operating rate of downstream polyester is around 80%, and as the Spring Festival approaches, it may gradually enter the spring inspection.

 

Future expectations

 

The main variables currently affecting the price of ethylene glycol are whether the implementation of import volume reduction has been realized, and whether the underlying cost support brought about by crude oil and coal prices will shift.

 

The supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still in a weak state, and loose inventory has opened up upward space. However, considering that there has been a significant increase in prices, we will focus on the negative feedback effect of terminal demand variables on raw materials in the future. It is expected that ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate mainly in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 8466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8566.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.18%, and the weekend price increased by 12.23% year-on-year. Some upstream propylene manufacturers have shut down for maintenance, resulting in reduced market circulation. Manufacturers have raised their prices, increased cost support, and a slight increase in the isobutyraldehyde market.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have seen a slight increase in their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

 

The propylene market has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6733.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6863.25 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 1.93%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.22% over the weekend. Part of the propylene plants in Shandong region have shut down, and with a favorable supply side, the market atmosphere has improved. Downstream players have actively entered the market, and on-site inventory has decreased to a low level. The focus of the propylene market continues to shift upwards.

 

From the perspective of downstream demand, the market price of new pentanediol has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 9875 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9950 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.76. The weekend price has increased by 4.01% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, with enterprises operating at a high level and downstream demand being good, which has a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

 

3、 Future prospects

 

In late January, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and rise. The upstream propylene market has strong upward momentum and good cost support, while the downstream new pentanediol market has slightly increased. Enterprises are operating at a high level, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde analyst believes that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

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According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Business Society, as of January 19th, the average price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 43000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate is mainly weak, with a decrease of 0.92% compared to the same period last week and a decrease of 12.24% compared to the same period last month. The upstream continues to have a weak market, and the cost support is weak.

 

This week, the price of lithium iron phosphate remained weak and downward, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere was lukewarm. Compared to the same period last week, the price dropped by 0.92%, and compared to the same period last month, the price dropped by 12.24%. Currently, downstream demand for lithium iron phosphate is insufficient, shipments are slow, inventory is running at high levels, operating rates are stable, manufacturers are operating under pressure, and a pessimistic attitude is obvious. Downstream replenishment is mainly based on demand, with main supply contract customers and overcapacity. The lithium battery market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

 

Chemical index: On January 18th, the chemical index was 864 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 38.29% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.48% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

 

Analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Iron Phosphate believe that in the short term, lithium iron phosphate will continue to operate weakly, with limited upward potential.

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Product Name: Isopropanol

 

Latest price: 8100 yuan/ton

 

Key points of analysis: On January 17th, the market price of isopropanol remained temporarily stable, and the trading atmosphere on the market was average. The upstream acetone market continues to operate weakly, with weak upstream support and average confidence on the market. The overall market is relatively light, and procurement is relatively cautious.

 

It is expected that the isopropanol market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

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