According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 9, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 7700 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1 (reference price of propylene glycol was 8100 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.94%.

Although “Golden March Silver April” has arrived, the market trend of propylene glycol in China still seems to be stuck in “winter”. Starting from early March, the domestic propylene glycol market has been weak and declining, with a cold trading atmosphere on the exchange and a continuous decline in market focus. In March, propylene glycol fell by 4.12%. Entering April, the decline in the propylene glycol market has not stopped, and there is insufficient support from positive market conditions. After the Qingming Festival, the focus of the propylene glycol market continues to move towards a low level. As of April 9th, the domestic propylene glycol market price reference is around 7600-7800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of demand: Entering March, downstream demand for propylene glycol is still slowly recovering, and the overall demand in the propylene glycol market has always performed poorly, making it difficult for the demand side to provide effective support to the propylene glycol market.

On the supply side, the overall downstream production of propylene glycol is relatively low, with limited transactions of new orders on the market. The supply and demand transmission is slow, and the pressure on the propylene glycol supply side increases. The support provided by the supply side for propylene glycol is also insufficient. Taking into account both supply and demand, the overall favorable support for the propylene glycol market is difficult to find, and the market situation is under pressure and is declining.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol on the market is light, and the mentality of the industry is average. There is a certain wait-and-see and worried sentiment in the market. The propylene glycol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly adjust in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the hydrogen peroxide market has been weak and declining since April. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 946 yuan/ton. On April 8th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 906 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.23%.

Poor terminal demand, declining hydrogen peroxide market

Since April, the purchasing volume of hydrogen peroxide in the terminal printing paper industry has declined, and hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have resumed production rates. Supply is loose, and confidence in price support is insufficient. Hydrogen peroxide factory prices have mainly fallen. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong, Anhui, Hebei and other regions is 870-900 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 20-30 yuan/ton.

Chemical analysts from Business Society believe that in mid April, terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide remained flat, putting pressure on future market trends.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite continued to be weak this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2150.00 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% during the week.

In April, due to the continued weak prices of upstream raw materials, some enterprises have lowered the factory price of sodium metabisulfite again, driving the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite to continue to be weak. This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range is 2000-2150 yuan/ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, and the enterprise mainly completes orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to the quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been reported are not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of April 7th, domestic soda ash prices have been operating weakly, with an overall decline of 1.03%. Sulfur prices have slightly rebounded, with an overall increase of 2.80%. Overall, raw material costs are still at a low level, and the decline in soda ash prices has slowed down. Raw material costs are fluctuating forward, and the weak trend of sodium metabisulfite prices in the future is expected to stabilize.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that raw material costs are fluctuating at a low level, and downstream purchases and sales are cautious overall. In the short term, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite is under pressure to recover.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of tetrachloroethylene continued to rise in March, maintaining a high level of operation. On March 31st, the average price of tetrachloroethylene was 5155 yuan/ton, and on March 1st, the average price of tetrachloroethylene was 4800 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 7.29%.

2、 Analysis and Review

Tetrachloroethylene is currently operating at a high level, with mainstream factory quotes of 5050-5300 yuan/ton. Demand is stable, but supply is tight. According to customs data, the export volume of tetrachloroethylene in February was 1155.6 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 14.5%, and there is no import situation. The market supply is tight, and distributors are closely following the increase of large factories.

The downstream refrigerant R125 market has implemented a price increase of 42000-45000 yuan/ton, up 4000 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The refrigerant market continued to soar in the first quarter and is currently operating at a high level, with a continuous supply-demand game. The mainstream refrigerant market is expected to continue to recover in April, with strong demand for production in May. The market shortage is expected to remain difficult to alleviate, and short-term growth is expected to slow down.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s tetrachloroethylene analyst believes that downstream demand is improving, and the price of tetrachloroethylene is expected to maintain a high level of operation.

Recently, the polyvinyl alcohol market has been fluctuating downward, and market news has been bearish. As of April 2nd, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol at Shengyishe was 12283.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.53% compared to last week (12350.00 yuan/ton).

In 1799, the mainstream negotiations in the market were 11800-12800 yuan/ton for cash delivery, in 2699, 12300-13500 yuan/ton for cash delivery, in 1788, 12300-13500 yuan/ton for cash delivery, in 2488, 13300-14700 yuan/ton for cash delivery, and in 2099, 12000 13300 yuan/ton for cash delivery.

Fundamental analysis:

Supply side:

The domestic vinyl acetate market weakened significantly in the previous cycle, with two declines ranging from 800 to 1000 yuan/ton. As of April 2nd, the price of vinyl acetate in the East China market is around 6400, the price in the South China market is around 6650, and the price in the North China market is around 6600. The market supply is sufficient, and the on-site trading atmosphere is cold. The operation of the vinyl acetate unit is stable, and downstream demand is following up. Enterprise inventory is higher than market demand. The low prices in the market continued to increase during the week, but it was difficult to affect the demand side and continued to be low with a small amount of transactions.

Demand side:

The downstream market is showing a weak situation, and the market is gradually starting to operate, but the overall situation is not as good as in previous years. The usage has not improved, and the purchasing willingness is not good, making it difficult to increase the volume. Enterprises are offering discounts to sell. Overall, the demand side still slows down, and the negative impact on the polyvinyl alcohol market.

Future Market Forecast:

Supply side:

It is expected that the vinyl acetate market will continue to be weak and stable in recent days, and downstream demand has not significantly recovered. This may lead to further price reductions by holders, which will have a negative impact on corporate quotations and accelerate the decline. Business owners still have a bearish sentiment towards the future market, and they are cautious in their actual order operations. Overall,

Demand side:

Polymer additives, fabric slurries, and adhesives are expected to increase in demand due to weather changes and the expected increase in terminal construction. The market negotiation atmosphere will warm up, and demand may improve. Downstream demand is expected to rebound, which will have a certain stimulating effect on the polyvinyl alcohol market and provide support and increase.

Overall

The market price of polyvinyl alcohol is significantly affected by both the raw material and demand sides, and the overall industry chain is interconnected. The increase in demand is crucial and will boost the trend of the polyvinyl alcohol market. It is expected that the polyvinyl alcohol market will experience a slight upward trend, and the price fluctuation range in the future is between 12500 and 13000 yuan/ton.