I. price trend:

According to a large number of data in the list of business agencies, the domestic PA6 market continued to be weak in November, with some brand quotations falling. Up to now, the main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 is about 12933.33 yuan / ton, down 4.20% from the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of influencing factors:

The domestic spot price of caprolactam upstream of PA6 was affected by the fall in the price of raw material pure benzene in October, which was sharply reduced by nearly 6.61% last month. At present, the port inventory of pure benzene remains at a low level, and the external market continues to rise and boost. It is difficult to find a low-cost source of goods in the downstream. The long-term cargo negotiation is 5250-5300 yuan / ton, and the short-term market is strong. Caprolactam US dollar market is weak, businesses offer lower, the downstream factory inquiry atmosphere is light, on-site actual single deal is not much. The focus of market negotiation tends to be low-end. Downstream buyers are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, the market trading atmosphere is light; upstream caprolactam continues to weaken, weakening the support for PA6. At present, the improvement of market demand for PA6 is limited, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not good, on-site trading is blocked, and the center of gravity of factory traders’ offer is lowered. However, due to the recent environmental protection policy, the operating rate of more than 40 urban areas such as the Yangtze River Delta has declined, and the polymerization plant has been shut down for rectification in the fourth quarter, so PA6 inventory will be consumed. PA6 offer trend is not good in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to cost and environmental protection policies.

3. Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in mid November, the domestic PA6 market continued to adjust the weak market, and the spot price fell. The trend of caprolactam in the upstream is not good, and the support for PA6 cost end is not good. The downstream replenishment operation is cautious, with rigid demand as the main factor. PA6 is expected to remain weak in the near future.

Commodity index: on November 15, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 98.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.18% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 2.77% from 95.72, the lowest point on April 10, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on November 1, the main quotation of polyacrylamide (cation) market was about 16166.67 yuan / ton, and on November 15, the main quotation of polyacrylamide (cation) market was 16100 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 0.41%.

Industry chain: upstream: in November, the mainstream price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market continued to decline, with the price of 12500 yuan / ton on the first day, 10550 yuan / ton on the seventh day, 100 yuan / ton on the 14th day, 10450 yuan / ton, 500 yuan / ton in the first half of the month, down 4.5%; downstream: demand is still stable. Manufacturer: the factory in Henan main production area started normal this month, with stable supply of goods. Upstream costs continue to be reduced, and manufacturers’ procurement costs continue to be reduced.

Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. From May, October and November to now, the manufacturer’s production is basically normal; the environmental protection inspection is strict, there are occasional stoppages, the output is not affected, and the market mainstream quotation is slightly down, with little impact.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, from November to now, the North has gradually entered the warm season. The environmental protection inspection is strict, the manufacturer’s production is basically normal, the supply of goods is stable, and the downstream demand is still stable. As the upstream raw material, the price of acrylonitrile is adjusted to 4.5%, and the market price of polyacrylamide is slightly reduced, but the range is not large. If there is no unexpected situation in the future market, it should be mainly stable, but it will slightly decline in stability.

On November 14, the fluorite commodity index was 100.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.80% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 105.18% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite is stable temporarily. As of the 14th day, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2877.78 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic fluorite device has been started normally, the mine and flotation device in the field have been started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has been kept low in the near future. For the purchase on demand in the fluorite market, the stock situation in the fluorite field is general, and the price trend of fluorite market is stable temporarily. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not improved, resulting in weak market price. As of the 14th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2900 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, and that of fluorite remained low.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite remains low. As of the 14th, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 9600 yuan / ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream market of fluorite. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is generally, the demand for fluorite is weakened, and the price of fluorite remains low and volatile. In the near future, the transaction market of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is general, and the domestic refrigerant R22 market is volatile. From the perspective of market supply, the market of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the supply capacity of the market source has declined, and the inventory pressure has been buffered. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers only reduced the demand without increasing, and the price of domestic large enterprises is 12000-13000 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market remains low. At present, R134a market has entered the off-season, downstream demand is relatively weak, and the operating rate of several R134a production enterprises remains low. However, the transaction price in the market keeps falling, the merchants purchase on demand, the peak season ends, the downstream demand of the terminal only decreases but not increases, and the affected price of fluorite market is at a low level.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry is low and the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is poor. However, as the temperature drops, the supply of fluorite in the North may decrease. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may maintain a low trend.

I. price trend of acrylic acid:

The average price of acrylic acid as of November 13 was 6900 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of December 12. The market was stable temporarily, down 10.39% compared with that of October 13, according to the bulk list of business agencies. On the 13th, the main price of acrylic acid in China was 6800-7000 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: acrylic acid market run smoothly on the 13th. The supply side of acrylic acid market is acceptable, the downstream construction load has not improved, the consumption of demand side is general, the manufacturer’s operation enthusiasm is not high, and the delivery and investment side is light. As of March 13, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. has been temporarily stable, with 8200 yuan / ton of common acid and 8850 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is determined by the actual contract. The price of acrylic acid of Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. is 7500 yuan / ton of common acid and 9400 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is determined by the actual contract. The price of acrylic acid of Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has remained stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. At present, acrylic acid The price is 7000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong Province has increased recently. At present, the market turnover is about 7320-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7350 yuan / ton. At present, propylene inventory is low, supply is more tight, downstream purchasing sentiment is good, and crude oil and PP market is still ideal, some prices are still rising. The operation rate of downstream acrylic acid manufacturers is low, and the purchase is just needed. The atmosphere of waiting and watching is strong.

3. Future forecast:

According to the acrylic analysts of the business community, the price of raw material propylene has increased recently, supporting the cost of acrylic acid. The downstream demand is light, and the market is just in demand. The industry participates cautiously. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will maintain stable operation in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market has been stable recently. As of November 12, the quotation in Henan is about 2600 / T, in Shandong is about 2700-2850 yuan / T, in Hebei is about 2750-2800 yuan / T, in Shaanxi is about 2250 yuan / T, in Jiangsu is about 2750-2850 yuan / T, in Zhejiang is about 2950-3000 yuan / T, and in Huahua is about 2600-2800 yuan / T The price of delivery in South China is about 3000-3100 yuan / ton.

II. Cause analysis

Product: the domestic acetic acid market gradually entered a stable period after continuous decline. Due to the low price of acetic acid for a long time before, the lower market and traders’ bottom reading and replenishment were good, and the inventory of the enterprise decreased, so the quotation of the enterprise gradually stabilized. At present, the industry has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the buying is more cautious.

Industrial chain: the methanol market is in a downward shock, and the downstream receiving is relatively limited. Some manufacturers sell at a profit. At present, the price is about 2146 yuan / ton; domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and acetic anhydride industries are gradually stable, but the industry’s trading is limited, and the downstream demand continues to be soft; the orders in the downstream terminal market of PTA market have not improved significantly, and the overall trading is still flat.

International: the North American acetic acid market has been in stable operation in the near future, at present, it is about 620 US dollars / ton; the Asian acetic acid market continues to weaken, at present, it is 335-395 US dollars / ton; the European acetic acid price is high and firm, and the current quotation is about 675 euros / ton.

III. future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of the business association, due to the continuous low price shipment in the early stage, the profit space of domestic acetic acid enterprises has been compressed. Although the overall inventory of the domestic acetic acid market has declined recently and Nanjing Yangzi maintenance Co., Ltd., the operating rate is still at a high level. In addition, the demand end of the downstream market has no obvious signs of improvement, and it is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will continue to operate stably in a short period of time.