Domestic cyclohexanone fell first and then consolidated, and the overall market price fell in July. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers was 6125 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 5633 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.03% within the month. The price fell by 32.40% compared with the same period last year.

 

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In July, cyclohexanone market first fell slightly and then fluctuated in a narrow range. In the first half of the year, the spot market of pure benzene fluctuated in a narrow range, and the cost support was stable. However, the price of caprolactam in the downstream market was weak, and the orders for chemical fiber were mostly purchased on a just need basis. The pressure on the shipment of cyclohexanone was increasing. Although some factories stopped for maintenance, the spot supply was still relatively abundant and the cyclohexanone market was weak. At the end of the month, the pure benzene market was relatively strong, but the terminal demand was not significantly improved. Downstream purchasing on demand, cyclohexanone was passively and slightly explored under the cost pressure, and the market low price was reduced. However, the market confidence in the future market was insufficient, and the market transaction atmosphere was general.

 

Raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene in Shandong Province dropped rapidly to 2800-2900 yuan / ton due to the impact of low price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province, and the price of downstream factories was seriously depressed. However, at this time, the downstream and traders’ bottom reading intention increased, and the price of refined low-priced goods was better, and the price began to rebound. However, due to the unprecedented pressure on the port to pick up goods, downstream buyers tend to lower prices, and high prices are generally traded. Therefore, in the first ten days of the month, the trading atmosphere in Shandong market turned to be cautious and wait-and-see, and the rebound was limited. By the middle of June, a new refinery in Dongying purchased pure benzene as starting material, driving up the price of pure benzene in surrounding refineries.

 

Caprolactam: the caprolactam market fell sharply in July 2020. Since the last ten days of June, the negative factors of caprolactam market have gradually appeared. The downstream textile demand is weakening, the intermediate link demand transmission is blocked, the weaving and spinning link inventory is accumulated, and the demand side weakness continues to conduct upward in July. The downstream spinning and polymerization factories begin to reduce the burden and production, and the caprolactam demand decreases, while the manufacturers maintain a high start, and the caprolactam supplier pressure increases Big. In addition, pure benzene rose to a high point of 3700 yuan / ton in June, and then began to fall. On July 1, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene fell to 3100 yuan / ton. The pressure transmission at the demand side added cost disadvantage, which accelerated the decline of caprolactam price. The spot price of caprolactam fell from 10100-10200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 9200-9300 yuan / ton in the middle and late ten days.

 

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Adipic acid: due to fluctuation of raw materials and downstream demand, domestic adipic acid market fell first and then rose in July. In the first and middle of the month, the market demand was low, and the market bidding was lower; in the second ten days of the month, driven by the cost, the spot market offer was high with rhythm.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in July 2020, there were 32 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose on a month on month basis, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 16.7% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate. The top three commodities that increased were sulfuric acid (42.50%), butadiene (29.83%) and propane (14.43%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 18.9% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were acetone (- 38.02%), phenol (- 19.93%) and isopropanol (- 18.75%). This month, the average rise and fall was – 0.47%..

 

From the supply side, Hualu Hengsheng has a maintenance plan in August, but in the near future, the spot supply is relatively abundant, the shipment of cyclohexanone is blocked, and the social inventory pressure is relatively high. From the demand side, the terminal demand has not obviously improved for the time being, and the downstream caprolactam supply is also becoming abundant. The expected enthusiasm for outsourcing is still weak, and most of them are just needed goods. Business community cyclohexanone analysts predict that short-term cyclohexanone market consolidation

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Zinc price trend

 

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According to the data monitoring of business agency, the trend of zinc price in July can be divided into several stages: 1 July to 8 July shock and maintain stability; 9 July to 13 July the first wave of rapid rise; 14 July to 27 July shock adjustment stage; 27 July to 31 July again rapid rise stage. As of July 31, the average price of zinc was 18980.00 yuan / ton, up 11.12% from 17080.00 yuan / ton on July 1.

 

The retail scale of home appliances in the first half of the year reached 369 billion yuan

 

On July 27, the report on China’s home appliance market in the first half of 2020 released by the China Institute of electronic information industry development showed that the retail sales of China’s home appliance market in the first half of 2020 was 369 billion yuan, down 14.13% from the same period last year. In the second quarter, the total retail sales of China’s home appliance market reached 248.6 billion yuan, twice as much as that in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 2.64%. Affected by the epidemic situation, domestic household appliances consumption fell sharply in the first quarter. With the resumption of work and production in the second quarter, consumption recovered and there was a certain amount of retaliatory consumption, which led to a year-on-year increase in household appliances consumption in the second quarter. It is expected that household appliances consumption will recover in the third quarter. As the main downstream of zinc ingot consumption, the zinc market demand is expected to maintain stability, and the positive effect on the zinc market is weakened.

 

Domestic zinc production

 

Date output of the month (10000 tons) cumulative output (10000 tons) year on year increase (%) cumulative growth (%)

June 2020 52.304.8 1.2 7.7

May 2020: 51.4 252.7 4.5 9.1

April 2020 51.7 201.3 7.3 10.7

March 2020 48.9 149.5 4.7 11

February 2020 — 104 — 12.9

It can be seen from the table that the output of zinc ingots in the first half of the year increased year on year, but the increase slowed down month by month. The supply growth of zinc market slowed down significantly, the risk of excess supply decreased, and the risk of supply shortage increased.

 

Zinc inventory in Shanghai market

 

Time this week inventory increase / decrease

Subtotal futures

June 29 – July 3 95809 37146 – 1896 – 104

July 6 – July 10 91307 36696 – 4502 – 450

July 13 – July 17 93637 38895 2330 2199

July 20 – July 24 89188 37285 – 4449 – 1610

July 27 – July 31 88347 35631 – 841 – 1654

It can be seen from the table that the zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures exchange market decreased slowly in July, the futures inventory also decreased slightly, and the domestic zinc market supply decreased. With the recovery of domestic economy, the demand for zinc ingot is gradually increasing, and the shortage pressure of zinc market is increasing.

 

Zinc inventory in LME Market

Time stock (ton) change (ton)

July 1 122550 – 25

July 2 122525 – 25

July 3 122525 0

July 6 122275 – 250

July 7 122150 – 125

July 8 121950 – 200

July 9 121775 – 175

July 10 123375 1600

13 July 123475 100

14 July 123200 – 275

July 15 122975 – 225

July 16 122525 – 450

July 17 122400 – 125

July 20 121700 – 700

21 July 121050 – 650

22 July 133450 12400

July 23 150050 16600

July 24 154500 4450

27 July 158825 4325

July 28 173000 14175

July 29 187475 14475

July 30 188175 700

It can be seen from the table that the zinc ingot warehouse in LME market has a small fluctuation and drop in the first and middle of July. Affected by the epidemic situation, zinc ore production is more stopped, the supply of zinc market is reduced, and the zinc ingot inventory is reduced. However, since late July, the inventory of zinc market has increased sharply, and the pressure of excess supply in zinc market has increased. Affected by the epidemic situation, the global economy is weak seriously, and the economic recovery in the second half of the year is not ideal, and the demand for zinc is bad. After the market zinc ingot supply surplus risk surge.

 

China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index

 

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According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in July, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 51.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, which was above the critical point for five consecutive months. China’s economic prosperity continued to recover, and the operating conditions of enterprises continued to improve. The improvement of macroeconomic environment is good for the zinc market, which has a certain upward momentum.

 

Zinc concentrate processing fee

 

Name: Rise and fall time of average quotation (yuan / ton)

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Guangxi 5000-5200 5100 00 June 29

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Hunan 5100-5200 5150 0 June 29

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Yunnan 4800-5100 4950 0 June 29

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Shaanxi 4800-5000 4900 0 June 29

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Inner Mongolia 5000-5200 5100 00 June 29

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Guangxi 5200-5400 5300 200 July 6

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Hunan 5400-5500 5450 300 July 6

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Yunnan 4800-5100 4950 0 July 6

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Shaanxi 4900-5100 5000 100 July 6

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Inner Mongolia 5200-5400 5300 200 July 6

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Guangxi 5200-5400 5300 0 July 13

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Hunan 5400-5500 5450 00 July 13

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Yunnan 4900-5100 5000 50 July 13

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Shaanxi 4900-5100 5000 0 July 13

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Inner Mongolia 5200-5400 5300 0 July 13

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Guangxi 5200-5400 5300 0 July 20

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Hunan 5400-5500 5450 00 July 20

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Yunnan 4900-5100 5000 000 July 20

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Shaanxi 4900-5100 5000 0 July 20

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Inner Mongolia 5200-5400 5300 0 July 20

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Guangxi 5400-5600 5500 200 July 27

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Hunan 5400-5500 5450 00 July 27

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Yunnan 4900-5100 5000 000 July 27

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Shaanxi 5100-5300 5200 200 July 27

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Inner Mongolia 5200-5400 5300 0 July 27

It can be seen from the data in the table that the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee rose sharply in July, ranging from 200-500 yuan / ton. The zinc concentrate processing fee rose and the zinc ingot cost rose, which was good for the zinc market, and the driving force for the rise of the zinc market was increased.

 

Analysis, review and Prospect

 

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, believes that since July, the processing cost of zinc concentrate has risen sharply, the impetus for zinc ingot rise has increased, the domestic economy has recovered, the demand for zinc market has recovered, the zinc price has been supported by the rise, and the domestic zinc market inventory has continued to decline slightly, which is the specific manifestation of the recovery of zinc market demand. However, we should pay more attention to the risk of zinc market while we pay attention to the rising power of zinc market. After the sharp rise of zinc market in July, the price of zinc is relatively high. However, the international market is affected by the epidemic situation, the risk of excess supply in zinc market is increasing, the inventory of LME market is soaring, and the risk of zinc market falling sharply. After the market zinc ingot falls the pressure to increase. Generally speaking, the good zinc market supported the ladder rise of zinc market in July, but the decline risk of zinc market in the future was greater. After the price of zinc should avoid chasing higher and be alert to the falling risk.

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According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride decreased in July. As of the 30th day, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 5037.5 yuan / ton, which was 3.59% lower than the price of 5225 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 12.14% lower than that at the beginning of the month. In July, the price of phthalic anhydride dropped and the market price of phthalic anhydride fell.

 

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In July, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride declined, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride was general. In the near future, the downstream demand was not good, and the price of o-phthalic anhydride dropped, which affected the price of phthalic anhydride slightly. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started normal operation, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride was about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was sufficient. The downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchased on demand. The merchants in the market were bullish and the market was general. In East China, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride declined, and high-end transactions were limited. In East China, the main source negotiation of neighboring France was RMB 5000-5100 / T, while that of naphthalene process was 4800-4900 yuan / T; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China was 4900-5100 yuan / T, and the market outlook of phthalic anhydride was still in existence, and the market price of phthalic anhydride fell.

 

The domestic price of o-benzene decreased slightly in July. As of the end of the month, the price of o-benzene was 4400 yuan / T, down 1.35% from the price of 4460 yuan / T at the beginning of the month. The decline of domestic o-benzene price was a big negative effect on the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the price of imported o-benzene in the port area declined, and the external quotation of o-benzene declined. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. The actual list was discussed in detail. In addition, the on-site o-benzene merchants had a strong wait-and-see mood, The price of o-benzene decreased slightly, and the price of raw material o-benzene declined, which was detrimental to the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride.

 

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The DOP market price in the downstream of phthalic anhydride fell in July. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of DOP at the end of July was 7133.33 yuan / ton, which was 4.04% lower than the price of 7433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of isooctanol in the field fell down. DOP device operated stably, and the spot supply was sufficient. The DOP market price fell. The market of plasticizer industry declined. DOP market quotation was 6800-7200 yuan / ton. The turnover of plasticizer in the market decreased, and the downstream market was poor. Affected by bad luck, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride declined.

 

Generally speaking, under the background of severe epidemic situation, it is very difficult for fuel demand to fundamentally improve. Although the United States and Europe have recently introduced economic stimulus policies, most of them are monetary policies. Due to the particularity of the epidemic situation, it is difficult to solve the problem from the perspective of increasing money supply. At present, the rebalancing of market supply and demand is mainly due to the efforts of oil producing countries to limit production. Crude oil prices mainly fluctuate, but there are also downside risks. Domestic petrochemical products prices are affected by certain negative effects.

 

In the future, the domestic o-benzene price trend is mainly volatile, but the transaction price of plasticizer is general, the plasticizer price has a downward trend, and the downward pressure of DOP market is still there. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will decrease slightly in August.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the market of chloroform in Shandong was stable and weak in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of chloroform in Shandong remained at about 2000 yuan / ton. Near the end of the month, the average price of chloroform dropped to 1900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5% compared with the beginning of the month.

 

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Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Jinling, Shandong: 440000 tons / year, 80%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

400000 tons / year

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year normal

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

The overall chloroform market in this month is mainly horizontal arrangement. The production start-up of enterprises is limited, and the inventory pressure is not high. Due to the high price of liquid chlorine of raw materials, the production cost of enterprises is high. However, the demand of downstream market is not good, and the price of chloroform continues to be stable. Near the end of the month, with the gradual recovery of enterprise production, the price of chloroform continues to decline. At present, the price quoted by Shandong is about 1900-1950 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 2300 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu is about 2650 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of upstream market, methanol market fluctuated downward, maintenance enterprises in Northwest China gradually recovered, enterprises and port inventory increased, spot price of methanol continued to decline, at present, about 1622 yuan / ton; liquid chlorine market was high, regional differences in enterprise start-up were large, regional market was affected by enterprise start-up, the current average price was about 700-900 yuan / ton.

 

On the other hand, the terminal demand of after-sales market of R22 downstream of trichloromethane is in general, the export is not good, and the domestic after-sales market has not improved significantly. Due to internal and external troubles, R22 manufacturers are under pressure to ship, and the market start-up is not high, at present, about 15000-16000 yuan / ton; pharmaceutical and agricultural diluents and other industries mainly purchase rigid demand, and support the chloroform market is flat.

 

Analysts of CH4 chloride data from business society believe that the current spot supply of chloroform market is increasing with the operating rate of enterprises, while the downstream refrigerant market is approaching the off-season, and the market demand will further decline. Under the high production cost of enterprises, it is expected that the chloroform market will remain weak and stable in a short time.

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According to the data monitored by the business agency, today’s market comprehensive price is 13600.00 yuan / ton, and the domestic PC market is running in a weak position, and the price has decreased slightly, down 0.73% compared with the same period last week, down to 100 yuan / ton.

 

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The focus of the domestic PC market is low, the downstream demand is insufficient, the upstream lacks good support, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the negotiation atmosphere is cold, the center of gravity in South China moves down, and the negotiation is cautious. At present, the market price in East China is 12700-14500 yuan / ton, and the middle and high-end price is 14200-16000 yuan / ton. The latest price of the enterprise, Luxi Chemical 12900 yuan / ton, Lihua yiweiyuan 13500 yuan / ton, Shanghai Kesi 14400 yuan / ton, slow delivery.

 

The upstream market price of bisphenol continued to decline, with poor trading atmosphere and cold negotiation atmosphere. The reference price in East China market was around 9100 yuan / ton.

 

On July 27, the rubber and plastic index was 610 points, down 1 point compared with yesterday, 42.45% lower than 1060 (2012-03-14), and 15.53% higher than the lowest point of 528 on April 06, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

 

PC analysts of business agency believe: it is expected that the PC market will be stable and weak in the short term, and the decline is likely to continue. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

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