1、 Price trend
As of May 21st, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane is 7383 yuan/ton. Currently, cyclohexane is mainly operating in a narrow range, and weak demand is suppressing its upward trend.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of the market, terminal demand is relatively weak, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. Downstream caprolactam/adipic acid production rates remain at 70% -75%, with insufficient orders. Demand remains stable but without any increase, while downstream demand insists on low inventory and on-demand procurement, resisting high prices. Batch transactions are rare, and traders are cautious. The nylon and chemical fiber industries are in the off-season, with weak textile demand, which is transmitted to the cyclohexane sector, and the demand side lacks driving force.
In terms of supply, the production of the equipment is stable, with sufficient spot supply and an average operating rate of 75% -80% for domestic cyclohexane plants. Large factories are operating at full capacity, with stable and loose supply. The inventory of enterprises is moderately high, and the inventory of ports in East China is about 12000 tons, with increasing shipping pressure.
In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene has weakened, cost support has loosened, and raw material pure benzene has continued to fall since May. Today, Shandong pure benzene is 6800 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of more than 5%. The production cost of cyclohexane has decreased, benzene prices have weakened, and the gross profit of cyclohexane tons has been restored to 800-1000 yuan. Manufacturers lack the confidence to raise prices, and their willingness to sell at high prices has weakened. The cost decline has been transmitted to the spot market, resulting in a short-term price stalemate, which may continue to be under pressure with benzene prices in the future.
3、 Future forecast
The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the market price of cyclohexane lacks upward momentum, downstream demand is insufficient, and upstream cost support is lacking, with narrow fluctuations being the main factor.
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