1、 Market Review
Recently, the PA66 market has shown a slight downward trend after fluctuating at a high level. On May 8th, the benchmark price was 23666.67 yuan/ton, which dropped to 22666.67 yuan/ton on May 14th, a decrease of 3.55% from the beginning of the month (23500.00 yuan/ton), and the short-term trend shifted from upward to downward. The current price is in the mid to high range of the one-year statistical cycle, with a drop of about 2400 yuan/ton from the one-year high.
2、 Cause analysis
On the cost side, in terms of adipic acid, the increase in the first quarter exceeded 50%, but since April, the market has turned into a narrow range oscillation, with some periods experiencing a decline of up to 2000 yuan/ton, and the marginal cost support has weakened. Although there was a significant increase in the price of hexamethylenediamine at the beginning of the year (with the bulk water price in East China rising from 16300 yuan/ton to 28000 yuan/ton), the recent upward trend has slowed down, which has reduced the driving force for PA66 prices. Although the energy premium still exists and the short-term cost center is difficult to shift downwards, the overall raw materials have entered a period of adjustment.
On the supply side, the decrease in imported goods has led to a tight spot market, low inventory levels among manufacturers and traders, and a strong reluctance to sell, resulting in certain price support.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as textiles have low acceptance of high prices and generally adopt the strategy of “small orders for immediate demand and on-demand procurement”. Large orders are rare, trading is light, and high prices suppress production, forming a stalemate pattern of “supply side control and demand suppression”.
3、 Future forecast
In the future, it is expected that the PA66 market will maintain high volatility in the short term, and there is little possibility of significant unilateral fluctuations. The price trend will highly depend on changes in raw materials and the progress of downstream order recovery. If there is no significant improvement in demand, high prices may continue or the situation of “having price but no market” may persist.
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