This week, the acrylic acid market continued its downward trend. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of acrylic acid on May 12th was 9316.67 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 8.21% from the beginning of this month (10150 yuan/ton on May 5th).
This week, the price of acrylic acid showed a continuous weakening trend: on May 5th, the price was 10150 yuan/ton, and on May 8th, it fell sharply by 3.06% to 9516.67 yuan/ton, and then continued to decline slightly. On May 11th, the price fell to 9316.67 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.76%. The market downturn has not shown any obvious signs of slowing down.
2、 Moving average signal: bearish trend clear, downward momentum still exists
Based on the analysis of the Business Society’s spot market moving average and spread indicators, the current bearish signals in the market are clear:
1. The moving average arrangement has completely weakened: This week, the price of acrylic acid has continued to operate below the 10 day and 20 day moving averages, and the 10 day moving average (red) has always been below the 20 day moving average (blue), forming a typical “bearish arrangement”. The 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average both show a downward sloping trend, with prices continuously breaking below the moving average, and the short-term trend has completely turned downward.
2. Verification of downward momentum using the moving average indicator: According to the principle of business social moving average, the current 10 day moving average is below the 20 day moving average, and the moving average is in the negative range. As the price continues to fall, the moving average shows a negative expansion characteristic, indicating that the market’s downward momentum is still being released and there is no short-term stop signal.
3、 Price Position and Supply Demand Analysis
1. Price position: Short term low operation, there is still downward space
From the perspective of cycle position, the current price of acrylic acid is at a low level during the 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, and 60 day cycles, only at the median level in the 90 day and one-year dimensions. Based on the price statistics within the year, the current price is 9316.67 yuan/ton, with a downward space of 3466.67 yuan/ton from the low point of 5850 yuan/ton within the year. However, there is a pullback of 3800 yuan/ton from the high point of 13116.67 yuan/ton within the year, and short-term downward support has not yet fully manifested.
2. Supply and demand side: Limited cost support and insufficient demand follow-up
Cost side: Raw material propylene fluctuated and consolidated this week, with relatively stable support on the cost side. There was no significant cost collapse or rise, and the impact on acrylic acid prices was neutral. On May 12th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9264.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.42% compared to the beginning of this month (9494.33 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Acrylic acid factories and holders continue to loosen their orders, with some sources offering discounts for shipments. The pressure on market circulation has increased, and traders have a strong willingness to ship, further suppressing market prices.
Demand side: Downstream demand follow-up is average, and terminal procurement is mainly based on essential needs. The market lacks centralized replenishment support, and coupled with the lack of significant increase in downstream industry operating load, the overall purchasing sentiment is cautious, making it difficult to form an effective bottom line for prices.
4、 Future prospects
In the short term, the acrylic acid market still faces a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the signals of bearish alignment of moving averages and negative expansion of moving averages have not yet reversed. The market downturn is likely to continue.
If there is no significant increase in the price of raw material propylene and there is no concentrated release of downstream demand, the price of acrylic acid may continue to decline, falling towards the range of 8800-9000 yuan/ton. 9000 yuan/ton is a short-term key psychological threshold, and if it falls below or accelerates towards 8800; If there is a concentrated maintenance of factories or a rebound in downstream orders in the later stage, coupled with unexpected cost side strengthening, the market downturn may gradually slow down, but the possibility of short-term reversal and upward trend is relatively small.
In the future, it is necessary to focus on the trend of raw material propylene, factory operation dynamics, and downstream terminal procurement rhythm, and timely grasp the changes in market trends.
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