This week, the domestic acrylic acid market continued its downward trend, with the price center continuously shifting downwards. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of acrylic acid on May 7th was 9916.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.3% from the beginning of the month (10150 yuan/ton). Under the dual effects of supply and demand game and cost transmission, the market has a significant downward trend, with strong downstream wait-and-see sentiment and overall weak trading.
1、 This week’s core market performance
From the perspective of price trends, the acrylic acid market continued its downward trend this week, with prices falling below the 10000 yuan mark. The daily decline during the week reached 2.3%, and it has fallen more than 3000 yuan/ton from the previous high of 13116.67 yuan/ton. The market as a whole presents a pattern of “upstream concessions and downstream wait-and-see”, with production enterprises gradually showing pressure on shipment, and quotations continuing to decline with market sentiment. However, downstream buyers generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, with rigid demand procurement as the main focus, insufficient follow-up on large orders, and a weak market trading atmosphere.
From the perspective of the cyclical price position, the current price of acrylic acid is in the low range of the past 10 days, 20 days, and 30 days. The 60 day position is at a medium low level, and the 90 day and one-year dimensions are at a medium level. The signals of “10 day oversold, 20 day oversold, and 30 day oversold” in the early stage have gradually eased, and the short-term price has entered a stage low area, but there is no clear signal of stopping the decline and stabilizing.
2、 Factors causing price decline
1. Supply side:
Previously, the price of acrylic acid soared to over 13000 yuan/ton, significantly restoring the industry’s profit margin. The enthusiasm of enterprises to start production has increased, and the overall market supply of goods is in an abundant state. As prices fall, the selling pressure of high inventory in the early stage gradually becomes apparent. Some companies actively lower their quotations to alleviate shipping pressure, further driving the market price center downward and forming a cycle of “price decline inventory pressure further price reduction”.
2. Demand side:
Acrylic acid is mainly used downstream in acrylic esters SAP、 In the field of high water absorbent resin, downstream enterprises have shown weak overall purchasing willingness this week, with no significant improvement in terminal demand. There is a strong resistance to high priced raw materials, and the procurement rhythm is mainly based on on-demand procurement, lacking large-scale stocking actions. Especially in the acrylic acid industry, its own profits are also affected by weak demand from downstream industries such as coatings and adhesives, which limits the increase in operating rates and makes it difficult to effectively support the procurement demand for acrylic acid. The market’s wait-and-see atmosphere continues to be strong.
3. Cost side:
Although there have been periodic fluctuations in upstream propylene prices, the overall cost support for acrylic acid has significantly weakened. With the rapid decline of acrylic acid prices, the upward logic driven by previous costs has been broken, and the market mentality has shifted from bullish to cautiously bearish.
3、 Market Forecast Based on the Business Society Spot Communication System
Based on the technical signals from the Business Society Spot Market Analysis System, the current downward trend in the acrylic acid market has not been completely reversed, and may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the opportunities for stabilization brought about by changes in the supply and demand margin.
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