Crude oil prices rose slightly, domestic refined oil prices rose for two consecutive times, gasoline market prices rose slightly, and MTBE market prices followed. The price of MTBE on December 4 was 3900 yuan / ton, up 2.63% from the beginning of the week, according to business agency data.

 

This week, international oil prices rose slightly, WTI crude oil prices rose 1.60%, Brent crude oil prices rose 2.95%. In addition, the domestic demand for refined oil is supported by the rising of terminal oil price and the demand of refined oil. Downstream of MTBE and other intermediate materials purchase intention is positive, MTBE manufacturers actively push up, market transaction atmosphere is good. In the short term, the overall start-up load of domestic MTBE units will still be at a low level, and tight supply will also support the market price.

 

MTBE product analysts of energy branch of business cooperatives believe that: the demand of refined oil market remains rigid. In the short term, the market price of refined oil continues to be weak, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream for MTBE and other intermediate materials is slow. It is expected that domestic MTBE prices will recover steadily in the short term.

PVA

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic ethanol market price was 6925 yuan / ton on November 30, and 6887 yuan / ton on December 4, with a decrease of 0.54% during the week, a rise of 0.36% on a month on month basis and a rise of 25.68% on the same period.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

In terms of regional market conditions, the ethanol market in Northeast China is high; the ethanol market in East China and Shandong is up; the ethanol market in Henan is stable; the molasses ethanol market in Guangxi is strong; the ethanol market in Guangdong is slowly pulling up; the ethanol market in Anhui is on the sideline; the ethanol market in Sichuan is stable; and the ethanol market in Yunnan is in operation.

 

From the perspective of raw corn, after the rain and snow, grain prices in Northeast China rose again, and the domestic corn market as a whole entered the stage of long space game. From the demand point of view, the demand of downstream liquor was mainly rigid demand procurement. In terms of ethyl acetate, the price of acetic acid raw materials rose sharply, resulting in low load operation of ethyl acetate enterprises, which had a significant negative impact on the demand for ethanol.

 

The latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Corn alcohol in Sichuan is about 7500-7600 yuan / ton, including tax

Molasses alcohol in Yunnan Province: 6750 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol 7000 yuan / ton in Yunnan

General grade of corn alcohol in Heilongjiang Province: 6450-6600 yuan / ton, tax included

Honey alcohol in Guangxi: 7100 yuan / ton

Guangxi cassava alcohol 7150 yuan / ton yuan / ton

Absolute ethanol in Guangxi: 7880 yuan / ton

In Guangdong, cassava alcohol is about 7150-7250 yuan / ton

Anhydrous cassava ethanol in Guangdong Province is about 7950-8050 yuan / ton

Henan Province excellent grade: 6850-6900 yuan / ton, tax included

Anhydrous ethanol in Henan Province: 7350-7450 yuan / ton

Shandong area: 6850 yuan / ton

Excellent grade 7300-7400 yuan / ton in Shandong Province

No water in Shandong Province: 7400-7450 yuan / ton

General grade 6800-6900 yuan / ton in southern Jiangsu

In southern Jiangsu Province, no water: 7350-7450 yuan / ton

In Anhui Province, corn is about 7000-7150 yuan / ton

Cassava in Anhui Province is about 6900 yuan / ton

Anhydrous water in Anhui Province is about 7650 yuan / ton

At present, the price of ethanol market is still at a high level, but the downstream demand is relatively stable. In the short term, the domestic ethanol market is expected to be stable.

PVA

This week, the domestic butadiene market was slightly sorted out. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 9938 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 9856 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a decrease of 0.83% during the week, a rise of 7.81% on a month on month basis and a rise of 9.10% on a year-on-year basis.

 

The external supply price of butadiene of Sinopec production enterprises is as follows:

 

Enterprise, price (yuan / ton), plant dynamics

Normal operation of 10100 165000 T / a unit in Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd

Normal operation of 10.12 million T / a unit in Shanghai Petrochemical Company

Normal operation of 10.12 million T / a unit in Yangzi Petrochemical Company

Sinopec’s 101.2 million T / a plant is in normal operation and mainly supplied by each other

Maoming Petrochemical’s 101.15 million T / a unit is in normal operation, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount of export

Guangzhou Petrochemical’s 101.03 million T / a plant is in normal operation, mainly supplied by each other and exported in a small amount

Shutdown and maintenance of Wuhan ethylene plant with a capacity of 101.13 million tons / year

External market: as of December 3, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at 1335-1345 US dollars / ton; CFR China closed at 1305-1315 US dollars / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe rose: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $1010-1020 / T, stable; FD northwest Europe closed at 705-715 euro / T, up 10 euro / T.

 

In the future, the downstream synthetic rubber market rose slightly, while the external price increased in a narrow range. On the negative side, some parking devices were restarted, and the market supply in the later period will be further increased, and the downstream will slightly resist the high price. Business agency butadiene analysts predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market narrow range finishing.

PVA

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the high pressure of enterprise maintenance and production costs, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong has been strong and upward. As of December 3, the average price in Shandong was about 3430 yuan / ton, up 5.54% compared with last week and 7.19% higher than the same period of last month.

 

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Shandong Jinling 440000 T / a Dawang plant 20%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 50%

Shandong Dongyue: 280000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 70%

Jiangsu Liwen: 160000 tons / year

Jiangsu Meilan 200000 tons / year 70%

Quhua, Zhejiang: 300000 yuan / year: 70%

Zhejiang Juhua 300000 tons / year 70%

Recently, the dichloromethane market in Shandong continues to be strong. Affected by the high price of raw materials, the cost of dichloromethane production enterprises is high, the enterprises are operating with reduced load, and the market supply is declining. In addition, the short-term non pressure of enterprise inventory makes the industry enthusiastic. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 3350-3450 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 3250 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of raw materials, due to the weather in some parts of the methanol market, there is no quotation for the shutdown and overhaul of the units. The inventory of production enterprises is not high, and the attitude of the industry is mostly optimistic. At present, the profits of traders are fair. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate in the short term, at present, it is about 2097 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is running at a high level, affected by the enterprise maintenance in Shandong, the spot supply is declining, but the downstream market is obviously in conflict with the high price, and the purchase completion is high. Some liquid chlorine enterprises have accumulated inventory, and the price has declined slightly. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is between 1500-1700 About yuan / ton.

 

In terms of the downstream refrigerant market, due to the limited quota at the end of the year, the price of the refrigerant increased slightly due to the slight rise of raw materials. However, the support from the demand side was not strong, the transaction atmosphere was weak, and the industry was bearish. The pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started smoothly and supported dichloromethane.

 

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, the overall starting of dichloromethane market in Shandong is not high, the inventory pressure of enterprises is not big, and the enterprise’s intention of price promotion is obvious, which drives the surrounding market to be strong and upward. It is expected that the dichloromethane price will be high and strong in a short time. Pay attention to the change of raw material liquid chlorine price.

PVA

1、 Price trend:

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

According to the news agency, the domestic market was adjusted in late June. As of December 1, the main offer price of 2.75-2.85 from traders was about 12566.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 16.36% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

 

In terms of upstream caprolactam, domestic caprolactam prices rose in November, with the increase concentrated in the middle of the year, and some brands increased more. At the end of the month, the average price quoted by caprolactam sample enterprises of business community was 10566.67 yuan / ton, which was 7.82% higher than the average price level in early November. The price of pure benzene in the upstream rose, and the support for caprolactam cost side was stronger. At present, caprolactam inventory position is low, Lanhua Kechuang, which has been shut down for maintenance in the early stage, has not been restarted. Zhejiang Juhua and Shandong Haili have also stopped for maintenance, aggravating the tight supply pattern. Caprolactam this good market sustained support from the supply side. At the same time, the domestic caprolactam factory generally increased the factory price recently to stabilize the market confidence. Far upstream international crude oil also had a strong performance in November, which was beneficial to the products of the chemical industry chain. Overall, caprolactam spot price by cost side and supply side is good, it is expected that caprolactam market will be strong in the near future.

 

The upstream caprolactam market is positive, which supports the cost of PA6. At the beginning of the month, PA6 fluctuated and remained stable, and in the middle of the month, the prices of various brands of products increased greatly. The whole month operating rate of downstream nylon filament is acceptable, but the factory has a mentality of resistance to high price goods, the replenishment operation is cautious, and the demand is slightly weak. In the last ten days, the atmosphere of traders selling goods was strong, and the price of PA6 market was impacted by the single profit. However, the tight supply pattern of caprolactam in December has become clear. Under the pressure of cost, the price of PA6 polymerization plant is on the way to increase. In the short term, PA6 may end the shock and rise again

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

Business agency analysts believe that: domestic PA6 market rose in November, the end of the high finishing. The upstream caprolactam supply decreased and the price went up, which strongly supported the cost side of PA6. Downstream factories just need to take delivery of goods, and have conflicts with high price goods, so they should be cautious in purchasing and trading. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 will continue to rise in the short term. It is suggested to pay close attention to the supply and demand of raw materials.

PVA