1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products was 4766 yuan / ton on May 25, and 4766 yuan / ton on May 29, with a stable price this week. On May 29, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin was 70.97, which was the same as yesterday, down 35.15% from the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and up 11.15% from the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

2、 Market analysis

 

Product: chlorinated paraffin market is stable this week. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5100 yuan / ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Hebei Province is 3900-4500 yuan / ton, and that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Henan Province is 4000-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4300-5200 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4800-5400 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4500-5400 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4000-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

 

Industrial chain: there is no obvious fluctuation in the current raw material market. The price of wax in the upstream feed liquid remained stable, and the downstream purchased as required. The demand for liquid chlorine for raw materials weakened, and the prices in many regions remained stable, while in Shandong region, they were stable and moderate.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 21st week of 2020 (5.25-5.29), there are 26 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are calcium carbide (7.39%), bisphenol A (6.99%) and ethylene (5.53%). There are 28 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are R134a (- 7.38%), acetic acid (- 5.49%) and propylene (- 4.60%). This week’s average was 0.18%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The chlorinated paraffin analyst of business association thinks that the current chlorinated paraffin market is not good, the transaction is general, the overall atmosphere is flat, and some manufacturers are flexible to adjust. It is expected that the market price of chlorinated paraffin will be stable in the later stage.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business association, at the beginning of the month, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4325.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4262.50 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.54%. The lowest price was 4237.50 yuan / ton on May 22, and the current price was 1.45% lower than last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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In May, the domestic potassium nitrate first fell and then rose. Recently, the domestic potassium chloride was weak in consolidation. The inventory pressure was large, the port shipment speed continued to be slow, the downstream factory purchase was not active, the traders were eager to ship, the market real order transaction was general, and the potassium chloride price was weak in consolidation. The market of potassium nitrate is not well supported. As a whole, the operating rate of potassium nitrate manufacturers is at a low level, so the overall inventory of potassium nitrate is at a low level, and there is no sales pressure for the time being. The downstream purchase volume is on the low side for a small amount of replenishment, and there is basically no stock situation. The price of potassium nitrate keeps fluctuating and falling, and occasionally a small increase is also a flash in the pan. In May, the main domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 4000-4400 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Potassium nitrate analysts of the business agency believe that: the domestic potassium fertilizer market has a large supply of goods, and there are still new ships arriving at the port after the import of potassium, the inventory is further increased, the overall transaction is not positive, and it is expected that the market situation of potassium nitrate in the short term will be dominated by a weak decline. The long-term market remains to be seen. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of the mainstream manufacturers on May 26 was 18833.33 yuan / ton, down 15.67% compared with the beginning of the month and 35.8% compared with the same period last year. On May 25, the R134a commodity index was 78.05, the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 21.95% lower than the highest point of 100.00 on September 2, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

In May, R134a demand in refrigerant market increased to some extent, but it did not meet the expectation. Domestic and foreign demand was not good. The automobile industry was in a downturn. The downstream after-sales market was general. The manufacturer’s shipping volume was not large, the industry’s mentality was pessimistic, the enthusiasm of traders to take goods decreased, and the market situation was still in a weak position. Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end has been lowered, the support force has been weakened, and the new capacity has been released. The supply of goods in the site is sufficient, and the situation of oversupply appears. Many negative factors have suppressed the price of refrigerant R134a, and the market is still in danger of falling. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of May 26, the average price of refrigerant R134a is 18833.33 yuan / ton, and the market price is concentrated around 17000 yuan / ton – 22000 yuan / ton.

 

According to statistics, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is still slightly lower. As of May 25, the price of hydrofluoric acid market is 8630 yuan / ton, which is 15.72% lower than the price trend at the beginning of the year, 22.81% lower than the same period last year. The price of hydrofluoric acid continues to be slightly lower. In the near future, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market remains low. The downstream refrigerant industry purchases on demand. The operating rate of the refrigerant industry is low, and the delivery of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is poor. Some manufacturers report that the price is low in the near future, and some manufacturers report that the loss is serious. The market of hydrofluoric acid has many advantages and disadvantages, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has hit a new low in the year. Hydrofluoric acid analysts of business club think that the market price of hydrofluoric acid is still dominated by low volatility in the short term, and there may be a rebound opportunity in the later stage.

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According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there is a total of 1 rising commodity, 1 falling commodity and 3 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities rising were chloroform (9.52%); the main commodities falling were hydrofluoric acid (- 0.57%). This week’s average was up or down 1.79%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, the demand side of refrigerant R134a is still recovering slowly at present, while the supply side is relatively loose, and the refrigerant R134a market is expected to decline in the short term.

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According to statistics, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is still slightly lower. As of May 25, the price of hydrofluoric acid market is 8630 yuan / ton, which is 15.72% lower than the price trend at the beginning of the year, 22.81% lower than the same period last year. The price of hydrofluoric acid continues to be slightly lower.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

In recent years, the price of hydrofluoric acid in China has declined slightly. The goods in the hydrofluoric acid yard are generally sold. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient. However, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is not improved. The market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to decline. In addition, the price of raw material fluorite remains low. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is affected by certain negative effects. The price of hydrofluoric acid in China has declined slightly as of May 25 in the south The mainstream of regional hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 7500-8000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 7500-8500 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market remains low. The downstream refrigerant industry purchases on demand. The operating rate of the refrigerant industry is low, and the delivery of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is poor. Some manufacturers report that the price is low in the near future, and some manufacturers report that the loss is serious. The market of hydrofluoric acid has many advantages and disadvantages, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has hit a new low in the year.

 

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From the industrial chain diagram, it can be seen that the prices of upstream and downstream products of hydrofluoric acid will decline in varying degrees in 2020, and the prices of upstream fluorite will drop by 10.74%. As of the 25th day, the factory price of fluorite is 2577.78 yuan / ton. The supply of domestic fluorite is sufficient, and the price of fluorite will remain low. The low price of upstream cost will have a negative impact on the market of hydrofluoric acid, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid will be affected Low shock. In the near future, the price of refrigerant products has recovered. As of the 25th, the price of domestic R22 products is 15500 yuan / ton, and the price of R134a is 21333.33 yuan / ton. In the near future, the sales of automobile industry is in a downturn, and the trend of downstream refrigerant market remains low. The demand for refrigerant is not good, foreign special events are serious, and the export of refrigerant terminal is not smooth, which is mainly supplied to the domestic market. However, the starting price of domestic air conditioning industry is low, The demand for after-sales maintenance is weak. On the whole, the demand at home and abroad is lower than expected. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 manufacturer is fluctuating, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the situation of market price or not appears. The price mainstream of domestic large enterprises is 15500-17500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of refrigerant products is still low. The price of hydrofluoric acid market is affected by the negative impact.

 

In the near future, the operating rate of domestic refrigerant units has remained low, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid market is general, but the demand for downstream refrigerant is difficult to rise. In addition, some manufacturers have reported that fluorite prices are near the cost line, and there is little room for price decline in the later period. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid business association, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid is still dominated by low volatility in the short term, and there may be a rebound opportunity in the later period.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China continued to rise steadily this week, with a stable weekend. The initial weekly price was 6829 yuan / ton, and the Thursday and Friday prices were 6979 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 2.20%.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

2、 Analysis and comment

 

Product: last month, Shandong propylene price soared and plummeted, and then remained stable again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th day, the price increased by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th day, some enterprises continued to increase by 50 yuan / ton. On the 11th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th day, it increased by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th day, it continued to increase by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the 14th day, it increased by 50-100 yuan / ton again. On the 15th day, it still increased by 50-100 yuan / ton on weekends Until 22, the upward trend has remained unchanged, with a daily upward trend of 50-100 yuan / ton. Today, it finally began to stabilize. Now, the market transaction is still between 6950-7200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6950 yuan / ton.

 

Industry chain: influenced by the international situation, the international crude oil price rose significantly at the end of last week, and now the crude oil is still rising, but the trend is slowing down. Influenced by the international events on August 8, the crude oil rose again significantly. On November 11, the crude oil went down slightly, and in the later period, the crude oil price rose slightly in a row. On the 15th, it also rose significantly. On the 18th, Monday, it rose a lot, and from the 19th to the 21st, it fluctuated slightly, which is still good for propylene Obviously.

 

Affected by public health events, the modified special material in PP last month was melt blown cloth material, and the price rose sharply in the early stage. Now, the price of melt blown cloth has been lowered, and PP futures have been restored to rationality. This week, the spot price of PP has stepped up, with a weekly increase of 2.47%, slightly positive impact on propylene.

 

This week’s acrylic acid market rose slightly and remained stable, with a weekly increase of 0.79%, which had little impact on propylene.

 

Propylene oxide market fell this week, down 2.11%, slightly negative impact on propylene.

 

Epichlorohydrin rose steadily this week, with a weekly increase of 3.12%, which had a small positive impact on propylene.

 

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol continued to rise, with a significant increase over the weekend, with a weekly increase of 3.03%, which is good for propylene.

 

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Octanol rose steadily this week, up 2.34%, slightly positive for propylene.

 

Affected by the epidemic situation, isopropanol market, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, rose sharply in the early stage, fell sharply, and remained stable after rising this week, with a weekly increase of 4.87%, which may still have a positive impact on propylene.

 

Phenol Market in Shandong Province maintained stability this week, with no weekly increase or decrease, which had little impact on propylene.

 

Shandong acetone market also maintained stability this week, with no weekly increase or decrease, which had little impact on propylene.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, on the whole, the international crude oil market has a positive support, and the price has been rising for many times, which has a certain supporting effect on propylene. However, the downstream operating rate is relatively high and propylene inventory is not large, but the recent rise of several consecutive days still puts pressure on the downstream. Therefore, although the downstream is also up, the trading is still cold. It is expected that propylene prices will maintain stability in recent days.

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