On April 30, the natural rubber commodity index was 39.76, up 0.06 points from yesterday, down 60.24% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 45.75% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

Figure 2: Trend of natural rubber mainstream price in late April 2021

As shown in Figure 2, natural rubber showed a slight upward trend in late April. Spot rubber: the monitoring data of natural rubber in East China (standard 1) showed that in the second half of this month, the mainstream quotation of domestic Baodao whole milk in East China market was about 13015 yuan / ton on the 16th, and 13407 yuan / ton on the 30th, up about 3%. Among them, the highest price in the last ten days was 13437.5 yuan / ton on the 22nd, and the lowest price was 13015 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a maximum amplitude of 3.25%. But in fact, this period of natural rubber out of a similar unilateral upward trend, the market in the last ten days to small shocks.

New rubber output: latest monthly global rubber output data: according to the latest report released by ANRPC, the global natural rubber output increased by 1.3% to 910000 tons in March 2021. Among them, Thailand dropped by 10%, Indonesia by 2.8%, Vietnam by 12.5% and Malaysia by 44.9%. In March, global consumption of natural rubber increased by 7.4% to 1.234 million tons. Among them, China increased by 3.3%, India by 40.8%, Thailand by 8.4% and Malaysia by 3.4%. In April, the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia rebounded, and the situation was grim. Thailand had begun a curfew, and India’s situation was so serious that it was out of control. Although the epidemic has increased the demand for the rubber market, the industrial environment of India, which accounts for nearly 8% of the rubber production, has been damaged. Not only the rubber output has been affected, but also the local demand for China’s rubber products has been seriously affected. The most important thing is that the out of control of the epidemic has led to global concerns about the future economic situation. Since mid April, the rubber market has rebounded, It’s not powerful. There was a shock in the middle, and then it went up slightly.

Downstream demand: data show that from February 18, the end of the Spring Festival holiday, to around the 25th of that month, bulk raw materials followed the crude oil and the related commodity market rose sharply, which boosted the enthusiasm of enterprises to resume work and production. The operating rate of tire enterprises quickly increased, and the tire production was at a high level in the past five years in the peak season of traditional sales in spring, By the first half of April, the operating rate remained high. However, since the middle and late ten days, the complex international situation and the serious epidemic situation in parts of Southeast Asia have doubled the concerns of enterprises about overseas market demand, weakened the market procurement demand, and reduced the operating rate of tire enterprises. It is understood that this is also the first decline in the operating rate of tire enterprises after the Spring Festival. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China’s production of rubber tire casing in March was 82.649 million, up 18.7% year on year. From January to March, the output of rubber tire casing increased by 46.8% over the same period last year to 214.716 million. According to the analysis, the April data may be different.

Import and export: from the perspective of China’s situation, according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 13, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 711000 tons in March 2021, an increase of 18.1% year on year. From January to March 2021, China imported 1.791 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 8% compared with 1.659 million tons in the same period of 2020. Thailand: in the first quarter of 2021, Thailand’s exports of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber) totaled 870000 tons, up 11% year on year. Among them, the total export of standard gum was 383000 tons, up 17% year on year; The export volume of cigarette glue was 125000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; The export of latex was 351000 tons, up 12% year on year. Vietnam: according to the latest data, Vietnam exported 156000 tons of natural rubber in the first quarter of 2021, an increase of 56% over last year’s 100000 tons. Among them, the export of standard rubber was 101000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 37%; 18000 tons of cigarette glue were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 33%; Latex exports were 35000 tons, up 182% year on year. In the first quarter, Vietnam exported 257000 tons of mixed rubber, up 86% from 138000 tons last year. Among them, the mixed export of SVR3L was 78000 tons, up 105% year on year; The mixed export of svr10 was 176000 tons, up 87% year on year; The mixed export of RSS3 was 3000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 58%. Vietnam’s exports of natural rubber to China totaled 23000 tons, up 72% from 13000 tons last year.

Inventory: as of April 30, 2021, the natural rubber inventory in the previous period was 178192 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 176240 tons, with an increase of 650 tons and 2160 tons respectively; The inventory of No. 20 glue was 58422 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 56074 tons, increasing by 180 tons and 382 tons respectively; In the previous period, the natural rubber inventory and warehouse receipt increased significantly, and the 20 rubber inventory and warehouse receipt inventory also increased.

Tire price increase: Recently, Hubei outlets Tire Co., Ltd. issued a price increase notice: the price of some specifications of tires will be increased by 30-50 yuan on the basis of the original price, and the price of all tread patterns and agricultural tire series of some specifications will be increased by 2%. In fact, since October last year, price increase notices have been issued repeatedly. Olas tire said that the price rise again at the end of April, one is to remind dealers to pay close attention to stock up before the price rise, the other is the side reaction of the rising tide of tire enterprises, the afterglow is still there, and it is preliminarily judged that there will be no possibility of price reduction in a short period of time. In fact, the analysis shows that the price of natural rubber is less than 14000 yuan / ton among the main raw material prices of tires in the near future. The price fluctuates slightly and rebounds from time to time. There is no big rising market, and the price of carbon black also shows a downward trend. The biggest driving factor for the tire price increase this time is the sharp rise in the price of steel. As shown in Figure 3, the price of iron and steel industry has risen sharply in the past year

Figure 3: trend chart of steel industry index from April 2020 to April 2021

On April 30, the steel index was 1365 points, up 2 points from yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 176.88% from the lowest 493 points on December 20, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

About the future: according to the analysis of the business community, rubber tapping has begun in Southeast Asian rubber producing countries and China’s main producing areas, and there is a certain supply. Although it is not enough to have a great impact on the market, the impact on the market expectation has appeared. The difference is that the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia is serious, especially in India, In addition, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States and the complexity of the relationship between many countries and China have a certain interference on the future economic recovery. The start-up of downstream tire enterprises has been affected to a certain extent. It is expected that with the continuous increase of new rubber supply, natural rubber will be more likely to weaken in the future.

New high of aluminum price

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market in 29th was 18740 yuan / ton, reaching a new high in nearly ten years.

On April 29, 2021, the average price of domestic spot aluminum ingot Market was 18740 yuan / ton, with a one-day increase of 1.76%; After the middle of April, the price of aluminum went up again, up 8.47% by the 29th.

Capacity “ceiling” expected to strengthen aluminum supply Limited

According to relevant data, as of the beginning of April, the annual operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 39.44 million tons, the effective built capacity was 43.59 million tons / year, and the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in China was 90.5%. According to the requirements of the implementation plan for carbon peaking in non ferrous metal industry, the non-ferrous metal industry will strive to achieve carbon peaking by 2025 and carbon reduction by 40% by 2040, which will restrict the new production capacity of aluminum industry. It is estimated that the market will require policies or strictly control the “ceiling” of electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 45 million tons.

Changes in electricity price policy and limited new capacity in some areas

In early February, the Inner Mongolia development and Reform Commission and the Department of industry and information technology announced that from February 10, 2021, self owned power plants will pay policy based cross subsidies according to their own electricity consumption, and the collection standards of Mengxi and Mengdong power grids are 0.01 yuan and 0.02 yuan (including tax) per kilowatt hour respectively. In addition, the electricity price policy of 3.39 cents per kilowatt hour for basic electricity charge of electrolytic aluminum industry in western Inner Mongolia is cancelled, and the inverted ladder transmission and distribution electricity price policy of Western Inner Mongolia power grid is cancelled.

In addition, Guizhou, Shandong and other places have introduced a ban on electrolytic aluminum industry illegal new capacity projects.

Aluminum social inventory is relatively low on a year-on-year basis, and aluminum consumer side has strong support

According to the social inventory data of aluminum ingots, the current inventory is relatively low in the same period of recent years. The spot consumption is good, and the destocking is obvious. The terminal demand is expected to be good, the investment data of power grid is relatively stable, the data of real estate, household appliances and automobile are better, and the support of aluminum consumer is strong.

Future forecast

At present, the profit level of aluminum ingot manufacturers has increased significantly, and the profit per ton of manufacturers with better energy efficiency ratio is close to 4000-5000 yuan. With China’s aluminum industry speeding up the implementation of the carbon peak target, the promotion of the local government’s energy consumption “double control” policy, the market situation is strengthened under the guidance of macro sentiment, and the sustainability is strengthened by the amount of intervention funds. In addition, the spot market is obviously destocked. It is expected that the spot aluminum ingot price will maintain a strong operation in the short term.

Recently, the domestic market of cyclohexanone is weak and stable. The crude oil market is strong, and the cost of cyclohexanone is strongly supported. However, the downstream users mostly prepared goods last week, and the recent purchasing slowdown. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of April 28, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 10420 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 12.50% and a year-on-year increase of 92.25%.

region ., Price

East China 10500-10600 yuan / ton in cash

South China 10800-11000 yuan / ton in cash

Shandong Province 10200-10400 yuan / ton cash withdrawal or delivery

In terms of raw materials, Sinopec increased the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton, and implemented 7300 yuan / ton, which was implemented by all its refineries. The price is effective from April 21. Downstream, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam price this week remained stable at 13900 yuan / ton (liquid premium products were accepted in June).

The price of pure benzene continues to rise with strong cost support, but the supply of cyclohexanone increases. Cyclohexanone analysts of business community expect that the domestic cyclohexanone market will be mainly on the wait-and-see side in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 26, the average price of domestic power grade lithium iron phosphate was 50000.00 yuan / ton. Recently, the rising trend of lithium iron phosphate slowed down, with an overall increase of 4.17% in April, or 2000 yuan / ton. The situation that the upstream lithium carbonate is in short supply has also been alleviated. Since 2020, with the development of global economy, the awareness of environmental protection has been continuously strengthened, With the rapid development of new energy battery industry, LiFePO4 has become the mainstream development direction by virtue of its excellent performance and manufacturing cost.

Application of LiFePO4

At present, the main application field of LiFePO4 is new energy vehicles, accounting for a relatively large proportion, followed by energy storage, electric ships and other fields are also developing rapidly. The production capacity of LiFePO4 is growing rapidly, with the production capacity of 7-8 tons in 2017-2018, 9-10 tons in 2019 due to the growth of demand, and 250000 tons in 2020, From 2015 to 2019, the production and sales scale of new energy vehicles in China will increase from more than 300000 to more than 1.2 million. In 2021, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate power battery in China will reach 41.8gwh, and the share of lithium iron phosphate in the power battery market will be between 40% and 50%. The sales volume of hot new energy vehicles will continue to increase, and it will maintain a steady growth from 2021 to 2023, From July to September, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached a record high in the same period. Lithium iron phosphate is favored by more and more new energy vehicle enterprises. After 2021, lithium iron phosphate will undoubtedly emerge in more application markets. New land transportation vehicles, 5g base stations, marine transportation tools, and domestic energy storage are all future battlefields of lithium iron phosphate, with data backup power supply, Standby power supply for medical devices, elevator, etc. the power demand will also bring certain development space for lithium iron phosphate. The field of 5g communication energy storage standby power supply is developing rapidly. China Mobile and China Tower have successively carried out 5g base station standby power supply, using lithium iron phosphate energy storage. At present, the bidding for centralized projects has been announced, and the bidding volume is 2.09gwh, There are about 14.38 million base stations to be reconstructed in the future. 5g energy storage market brings huge space for the demand of LiFePO4 battery.

product Specifications Quotation (10000 yuan / ton) date

Lithium iron phosphate Dynamic type 4.8-5.2 April 26th

Lithium iron phosphate Energy storage type 4.2-4.6 April 26th

Lithium carbonate Industrial grade 8.1-8.5 April 26th

Lithium carbonate Battery grade 8.8-9.2 April 26th

Price

According to the statistics of the business society, the overall price of LiFePO4 increased by 35.14% from the beginning of January to the end of April in 2021, up to 13000 yuan / ton. The price of LiFePO4 in the beginning of January in 2021 increased by 37000 yuan / ton to 38000 yuan / ton by the end of January, up by 2.7% to 1000 yuan / ton. The price of LiFePO4 in the beginning of February increased by 13.51% from 38000 yuan / ton to 42000 yuan / ton, The price of LiFePO4 increased by 10.53% to 4000 yuan / ton compared with that in early February. The price of LiFePO4 increased by 11.63% from 43000 yuan / ton to 48000 yuan / ton in early March. The price of LiFePO4 increased by 29.73% compared with that in early January and 26.32% compared with that in early February. The price continued to rise in April, and the overall price rose by 4.17%, Up 2000 yuan / ton.

We learned from the lithium carbonate data division of the business society that the price of lithium carbonate has been in a stable state in the near future. Due to the continuous increase of domestic lithium carbonate from March to may, the relationship between supply and demand has been improved to a certain extent. The previous shortage of lithium resources does not seem to have any impact on the price of lithium carbonate in the near future. However, in 2021, the problem of lithium shortage is more important. After the bankruptcy of Altura, the supply of Australian mines began to tighten, and some of Tianqi’s production capacity could not be guaranteed. There were only two lithium mines available in Australia, and the demand of other smelters in the market for lithium mines decreased greatly. The following price trend comparison chart of lithium carbonate and lithium iron phosphate.

According to the LiFePO4 analyst of business news agency, the development trend of new electric vehicles is becoming increasingly apparent, marine vehicles are developing rapidly, and there is a huge development space in the field of standby power storage. It can be seen that the market position of LiFePO4 will be further improved in the future（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

From April 19 to 23, 2021, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China decreased. The domestic ex factory price was 6550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7050 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly rise of 7.63%.

This week (April 19-23), the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province fluctuated slightly, with 6575 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7125 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 550 yuan / ton.

In April 2021, Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price was raised five times, and now it is 7300 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical is 7250 yuan / ton, and this week it is raised twice, with a total of 450 yuan / ton.

This week, with the price of pure benzene rising, the domestic pure benzene station reached 7000 yuan / ton. Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene twice in a row, while the price of hydrogenated benzene increased significantly. Next week is approaching the 51st holiday, there is a certain stock demand in the downstream, and the downstream unsaturated resin is in the peak season of the industry, and the demand for hydrogenated benzene and pure benzene is stable. Styrene inventory is low, spot circulation is tight, and market price is firm. Multiple positive support, hydrobenzene prices rose significantly.

In the future, the business community believes that there are many favorable factors in the fundamentals at present. In addition, the bidding price of upstream raw material crude benzene has increased sharply this week, which can further support the high price of hydrogenated benzene. However, the current price has increased greatly, and the downstream enterprises have a little resistance. Moreover, the port pure benzene inventory is now stable at about 110000 tons, and the speed of de inventory is slowing down. It is expected that the high price will fluctuate in the future, The rise is weak.