On April 29, aluminum price reached a new high

New high of aluminum price

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market in 29th was 18740 yuan / ton, reaching a new high in nearly ten years.

On April 29, 2021, the average price of domestic spot aluminum ingot Market was 18740 yuan / ton, with a one-day increase of 1.76%; After the middle of April, the price of aluminum went up again, up 8.47% by the 29th.

Capacity “ceiling” expected to strengthen aluminum supply Limited

According to relevant data, as of the beginning of April, the annual operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 39.44 million tons, the effective built capacity was 43.59 million tons / year, and the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in China was 90.5%. According to the requirements of the implementation plan for carbon peaking in non ferrous metal industry, the non-ferrous metal industry will strive to achieve carbon peaking by 2025 and carbon reduction by 40% by 2040, which will restrict the new production capacity of aluminum industry. It is estimated that the market will require policies or strictly control the “ceiling” of electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 45 million tons.

Changes in electricity price policy and limited new capacity in some areas

In early February, the Inner Mongolia development and Reform Commission and the Department of industry and information technology announced that from February 10, 2021, self owned power plants will pay policy based cross subsidies according to their own electricity consumption, and the collection standards of Mengxi and Mengdong power grids are 0.01 yuan and 0.02 yuan (including tax) per kilowatt hour respectively. In addition, the electricity price policy of 3.39 cents per kilowatt hour for basic electricity charge of electrolytic aluminum industry in western Inner Mongolia is cancelled, and the inverted ladder transmission and distribution electricity price policy of Western Inner Mongolia power grid is cancelled.

In addition, Guizhou, Shandong and other places have introduced a ban on electrolytic aluminum industry illegal new capacity projects.

Aluminum social inventory is relatively low on a year-on-year basis, and aluminum consumer side has strong support

According to the social inventory data of aluminum ingots, the current inventory is relatively low in the same period of recent years. The spot consumption is good, and the destocking is obvious. The terminal demand is expected to be good, the investment data of power grid is relatively stable, the data of real estate, household appliances and automobile are better, and the support of aluminum consumer is strong.

Future forecast

At present, the profit level of aluminum ingot manufacturers has increased significantly, and the profit per ton of manufacturers with better energy efficiency ratio is close to 4000-5000 yuan. With China’s aluminum industry speeding up the implementation of the carbon peak target, the promotion of the local government’s energy consumption “double control” policy, the market situation is strengthened under the guidance of macro sentiment, and the sustainability is strengthened by the amount of intervention funds. In addition, the spot market is obviously destocked. It is expected that the spot aluminum ingot price will maintain a strong operation in the short term.