According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of June 30, the average factory price reference of domestic butanone market was 8100 yuan / ton. Compared with April 1 (reference price of butanone was 8033 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.83%.

According to the data monitoring chart of butanone in the second quarter of 2021, the domestic butanone market had experienced a sharp rise in the second quarter of 2021. The main reason for the sharp rise in the market came from the favorable support of reduced supply brought by equipment maintenance. At the end of March and the beginning of April, the main domestic butanone factories were overhauled and the spot supply of butanone was tight. With the decrease of supply, the market price began to rise steadily at the beginning of April. The market price of butanone continued to rise to the middle of May. On May 16, the reference average price of butanone was 9400 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of April, the average price rose 1433 yuan / ton, or 18%. However, since late May, the price of butanone began to fall, mainly due to the fact that the factories started to drive one after another and the supply increased, the market mentality was frustrated, the butanone holders also had great panic, the high end of butanone began to worry, the bearish mentality of the industry increased, and the price of butanone began to fall gradually.

In June, the butanone market continued to decline sharply. Under the imbalance of supply and demand, the contradiction between supply and demand gradually intensified, and the market began to show signs of bidding. The price fell all the way below the price at the beginning of April. On June 16, the reference average price of domestic butanone was 7700 yuan / ton, which was 333 yuan / ton lower than the price at the beginning of April, a decrease of 4.15%. Near the end of the month, affected by the maintenance of butanone equipment in Lanzhou and other regions in the next July and August, the spot supply of butanone began to be tight at the end of June, and the market price began to rise at the end of the month. As of June 30, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average factory reference price of domestic butanone was 8100 yuan / ton, which was 400 yuan / ton higher than the low price in the middle of June, Compared with the high price of butanone market since the second quarter (the reference price of butanone is 9400 yuan / ton), the average price has decreased by 1300 yuan / ton, or 14.44%. Compared with the beginning of the second quarter (the reference price of butanone is 8100 yuan / ton), the average price has increased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.83%.

On the upstream side, in June, the overall LPG market in Shandong Province went up in shock. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of LPG on June 30 was 4283 yuan / ton, up 3.38% compared with that on June 1 (4143.33 yuan / ton).

Future market analysis of butanone

At the end of June, the butanone market was in short supply. In July, the maintenance of butanone equipment in Lanzhou and Shandong continued. In the short term, the market supply could not be effectively alleviated. Therefore, the butanone Data Engineer of business society believes that after entering July, the domestic butanone market will continue to rise at the end of June, and the market price is expected to continue to rise.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of July 7, the average price of PET water bottle manufacturers was 7220.00 yuan / ton. The overall pet market was running smoothly, with a slight upward trend. The quotation of manufacturers increased slightly, up 3.14% compared with the same period last month.

Recently, the price of pet market has gone up. Some manufacturers have slightly increased their prices, but the prices have gone up in a narrow range. At present, pet is in smooth circulation. The transaction price is floating on and off the cost line. The focus of the negotiation is narrow and upward. The downstream demand is general, and the inventory is normal. The mainstream price range of pet is about 7200 yuan / ton.

On July 6, the rubber and plastic index was 791 points, up 4 points from yesterday, down 25.38% from 1060 points (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 49.81% from 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

Business community PET analysts believe that: in the short term, pet prices rose slightly, the center of gravity moved up（ To learn more about the latest market trends, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get information on goods, and grasp the price of commodities.

Trend of magnesium (6.28-7.2, the same below)

At the beginning of last week, due to the decrease of market demand, the price fell back. In the middle and later period of this week, the market stabilized at 19000 yuan / ton of spot exchange including tax, a year-on-year decrease of 1.72%. As of July 2, the specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory cash including tax is 19000-19100 yuan / ton; In Ningxia, 19000-19100 yuan / ton of ex factory cash including tax; In Taiyuan, the ex factory cash including tax is 19100-19200 yuan / ton; In Wenxi area, the ex factory cash including tax is 19200-19300 yuan / ton.

Market analysis of last week

Cost side: last week, magnesium price was affected by policy control, and the cost gap decreased. Last week, coke increased by 0.75%, and last week, it decreased by 2.02% year on year. However, the price of ferrosilicon and coke at the cost side is still at a high level, and the cost pressure supports the magnesium plant’s strong willingness to stabilize the price.

Demand side: at present, it is still in the off-season of the industry. This week, the quotation has declined, and the market transaction situation has gradually improved. However, generally speaking, most of the people waiting and waiting in the market are still in the majority, and the actual order recovery is limited.

Supply side: at present, some magnesium plants are in the summer maintenance period, and the inventory of large plants is low, but it is still difficult to change the overall situation of oversupply.

Future forecast

In the short term, the magnesium market will remain at the current level, and the price will not change greatly. At the same time, considering the support from the cost side, it is unlikely that the magnesium price will fall sharply, and the magnesium price may continue the weak and stable consolidation operation of the current price.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market rebounded slightly in June. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 11970 yuan / ton at the beginning of June and 12330 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 3.01% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. In June, the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber dropped first and then rose. As of June 30, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of Sinopec North China sales company was stable. Qilu cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber reported 12100 yuan / ton, and North China warehouse raised the price; Yanshan Shunding quoted 12020 yuan / ton, and Huabei warehouse raised the price.

In June, the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber industry started down slightly. According to the business news agency, Yangzi’s 100000 t / a Shunding plant continued to shut down in June; The Shunding units with a total capacity of 200000 tons / year, such as Lande, Wanda and ChuanHua, were shut down for maintenance in the first and middle of June respectively, and the two units returned to normal at the end of the month; Maoming 100000 t / a shundingzhuang was put into operation in mid June; Shunding units in Daqing, Qilu and Dushanzi were in normal operation.

enterprise Plant capacity Commencement at the end of June

Yantai Haopu 60000 tons / year normal operation

Shandong Wanda 50000 tons / year parking

Qi xiangtengda 50000 tons / year normal operation

Qilu Petrochemical 70000 tons / year normal operation

Sichuan Petrochemical 150000 tons / year normal operation

Maoming Petrochemical 100000 tons / year restart

yanshan petrochemical 150000 tons / year normal operation

Yangzi Petrochemical 100000 / year parking

Huayu rubber 80000 tons / year parking

Taixiang Yubu 72000 / year normal operation

Dushanzi Petrochemical 30000 / year normal operation

Lande, Xinjiang 50000 / year normal operation

Daqing Petrochemical 160000 / year normal operation

Liaoning Shengyou 30000 / year parking

Jinzhou Petrochemical 30000 / year normal operation

Shandong Huamao 100000 / year restart

Zhejiang ChuanHua 100000 / year normal operation

The price of natural rubber is at a low level, which forms a certain pressure on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber from the perspective of substitutability.

In June, the price of butadiene rose sharply, and the cost side was strongly supported. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of butadiene was 7458 yuan / ton at the beginning of June and 8852 yuan / ton at the end of June, with an overall increase of 18.68%.

Future forecast: business community analysts believe that, on the one hand, the price of raw materials rose sharply, forming a positive support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber; On the other hand, the low price of natural rubber and the slight decline of downstream construction have a negative impact on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range.

This week (6.28-7.2) the domestic price of ethyl acetate fell. After the first two weeks of June, the price of ethyl acetate rose and hovered at a high level in the second half of the month, it is now in a downward trend. According to the monitoring of business news agency, this week’s rise and fall rate was 0.27%, and the prices of some domestic manufacturers were lower. At present, the prices are in the range of 9200-9500 yuan / ton.

First of all, in terms of the upstream acetic acid market, the price of acetic acid fell sharply this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, since late June, the price of acetic acid has been falling continuously. Since June 20, the cumulative decline has been 9.08%, and this week’s decline has also exceeded 5%. On the one hand, in the early stage, high market prices gradually accumulated resistance psychology, superimposed with high social inventory, traders competing to reduce prices and ship goods, superimposed with export obstacles and other factors, resulting in the market price falling again and again.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, part of the maintenance units have resumed operation in the early stage. At present, the supply of goods in the market is relatively sufficient, and the manufacturers are under great pressure to maintain the price, and there are gradually downward adjustments. In addition, the recent transport constraints, poor shipping and other factors, the new single trading low hover.

From the perspective of ethyl acetate demand side, the terminal demand entered the traditional off-season, and the market demand continued to be weak. After a previous round of price increase, the current price is still relatively high. The lower reaches are rational and somewhat resistant to the high price of ethyl acetate, and the trading volume is affected to some extent, making the market more vulnerable.

In the future, ethyl acetate analysts from business clubs believe that with the continuous decline of acetic acid price, the cost pressure of ethyl acetate has been greatly alleviated, but the supply and demand side is still loose, and the demand is mainly insufficient. It is expected that in the later stage, both in terms of cost and supply and demand side, ethyl acetate will have downward pressure.