1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), on September 17, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 10125 yuan / ton, up 262.5 yuan compared with 9862.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 2.66% during the week, 8.14% compared with the beginning of the month and 52.14% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the PVC market stabilized first and then rose. Near the weekend, the price rose rapidly. The enterprise increased by about 250-350 yuan / ton, and the price continued to rise. The rise of PVC prices this week was mainly driven by the strong disk. The PVC futures price rose again to more than 10000 yuan. The highest price in the week was 10285, breaking through 10090 last week, driving the rise of spot market prices. In addition, due to the impact of macro policies, most enterprises are now offering more than 10000 yuan, and the market focus has shifted upward. At the beginning of the week, the PVC market was generally stable, the price was adjusted in a narrow range, and the futures price weakened slightly, but the spot market was not strong in falling intention due to cost support, and the trend was still strong; On Wednesday, Yulin’s “double control” policy was introduced, including raw calcium carbide. Boosted by the news, the disk strengthened on the same day, and the PVC futures price rose rapidly, driving the spot price to rise sharply; Over the weekend, PVC futures prices fell, but the spot market did not follow the decline, and the price was still high.
In terms of spot goods, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 10000-10300 yuan / ton. The interval of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 10250-10350 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 10200-10400 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 10260-10350 yuan / ton; Market prices rose throughout the week.
region workmanship 9 / 17 (yuan / ton) 9 / 13 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks
East China Calcium carbide method 10130-10250 10050-10130 + 80/+120 Ex warehouse
south China Calcium carbide method 10100-10250 10080-10130 + 20/+120 Ex warehouse
North China Calcium carbide method 10020-10120 9920-10000 + 100/+120 Delivered
southwest Calcium carbide method 9950-10200 9800-9950 + 150/+250 Delivered
For international crude oil, on September 16, the international oil price was basically unchanged from the previous trading day. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $72.61/barrel, with an increase or decrease of 0. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $75.67/barrel, with an increase of US $0.21 or 0.3%. Due to the reduced possibility of another hurricane, the crude oil production crisis in the US Gulf region has been temporarily lifted, but at the same time, there are still some unrecovered production to support the oil price.
Ethylene, the ethylene market in the external market showed an upward trend as a whole. Asian ethylene market prices continued to rise. As of the 16th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1106-1116 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1046-1056 / T. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 16th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1227-1237 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1163-1170 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States rose. As of the 16th, the price was US $813-830 / ton. Recently, the overall demand of the external ethylene market is OK, showing an upward trend with little increase. The recent fluctuation of ethylene in Europe is mainly small.
Calcium carbide, business agency: on September 17, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest rose, the price of blue carbon in the upstream was adjusted at a high level, the cost support was good, the PVC market in the downstream was adjusted at a high level, the demand for calcium carbide increased, the environmental protection in Inner Mongolia was liberalized, and the output of calcium carbide increased. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in mid September.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the higher PVC futures price drives the price rise in the spot market, but the transaction atmosphere of high-priced PVC is negative. Downstream procurement still maintains rigid demand before the Mid Autumn Festival, the replenishment mood is not positive, it is difficult to digest the rapidly rising PVC raw material price, and the support on the demand side is insufficient. It is expected that the PVC market has a high probability of adhesion in the short term, and the price may tend to be stable.