I. price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline this week, with a decline of 4.06% within the week. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2850-3000 / ton; in Shandong, it is about 3050-3200 yuan / ton; in Hebei, it is about 3200-3250 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi, it is about 2750 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu, it is about 3050-3150 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang, it is about 3250-3350 yuan / ton. About 3300-3350 yuan / ton for delivery in South China.

II. Cause analysis

Product: this week, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline, and the price of acetic acid continued to decline. Except for Tianjin Bohua and Jiangsu Thorpe, other acetic acid production enterprises were in normal production, with the overall operating rate maintained at about 90%, and the inventory of some enterprises gradually increased, and the stock pressure significantly increased. Therefore, the enterprises made more profits to ship out. Because the price of acetic acid decreased significantly, the production enterprises tended to Stable intention is obvious, but the downstream market is weak, and there is no obvious sign of recovery in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream, domestic methanol market fluctuated and adjusted in a week, with the market mainly on the sidelines, down 0.25% in a week. At present, about 2350 yuan / ton is not enough to support the price of acetic acid; domestic acetate and vinyl acetate and other industries are not satisfied with the terminal gas purchase, and the support is insufficient under the condition that the raw material acetic acid continues to be soft, and the soft operation is weak in a week; PTA Market vibrated and operated, and the downstream just needs to be flat. , the overall delivery intention is not high.

International: the North American acetic acid market was affected by the previous Celanese parking, the spot supply of acetic acid was tight, and it continued to rise in the week, with the current price of 620 US dollars / ton; the Asian acetic acid market was affected by the poor demand, and the price continued to fall in the week, with the current price of 390-440 US dollars / ton; the European acetic acid market supply declined, and the acetic acid price rose slightly in the week, with the current price of 665 euros / ton.

III. future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid price has fallen sharply in recent years, the stock pressure in the industry has gradually increased, the downstream demand has not recovered, and the export-side negotiations are flat, resulting in the continuous weakness of the acetic acid price due to multiple negative factors. It is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will continue to operate in a weak position in a short period of time.

I. price trend

According to the data of the commodity list of the business association, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong Province recently fell. The average price of formaldehyde on the 14th was 1296.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of formaldehyde on the 17th was 1280.00 yuan / ton, down 1.29%. The current price is 21.58% lower than last year.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of formaldehyde in the domestic market has fallen. As of the 17th, the mainstream factory quotation in Hebei is about 1170 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation in South China is about 1200 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation in Shandong is about 1250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation in Jiangsu is 1450 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons and formaldehyde content of 37%. The plant has been restarted. Formaldehyde plant restart more, formaldehyde market stock up, formaldehyde factory mentality is empty, the price all the way down.

Industry chain: the upstream methanol is affected by the phenomenon of high inventory in the port, the delivery of methanol in the inland market is not smooth, and the delivery of upstream enterprises such as Inner Mongolia is general, the operators in the field are passive, and most traders wait and see. The price was 2356.00 yuan / ton on the 14th and 2330.00 yuan / ton on the 17th, down 1.08%. The downstream market demand is relatively stable, affected by the drop in supply and demand costs, formaldehyde prices fell.

III. future forecast

Recently, the upstream methanol has a large inventory in the site, and the phenomenon of high inventory in the port is hard to disappear in a short time. The overall trading atmosphere of the market is depressed. The methanol market continues to fall, and the cost side is insufficient. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society predicted that the recent domestic formaldehyde price or overall decline is the main trend.

I. price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has declined recently. The average price of ethylene on the 15th was 877.25 US dollars / ton, down 5.24% from 925.75 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the month. The current price is down 9.19% year on year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: ethylene has declined in recent days. Asian ethylene market prices fell in shock, as of 15 days, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $737-745 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $787-795 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell, as of 15 days, European ethylene market prices for FD northwest Europe closed at $1031-1042 / T, CIF northwest Europe closed at $937-946 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region fell. As of the 15th, the price was US $435-447 / ton. Overall, the price of upstream crude oil fell for the second consecutive trading day, and the overall ethylene market fell. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on October 15, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose to 52.81 US dollars / barrel, down 0.78 US dollars or 1.5% from the previous trading day, while Brent crude oil futures fell to 58.74 US dollars / barrel, down 1.0% or 0.61 US dollars from the previous trading day. According to the news, the latest estimate of the International Monetary Fund shows that the global economic growth rate is expected to drop to 3% this year. The drop in factory prices of Chinese industrial producers has also dampened the atmosphere in the international oil market. The cost support was weak, and the ethylene market fell. The price of downstream styrene continued to fall and the price of ethanol was consolidated, which could not support the price of ethylene, and had a downward trend.

3. Future forecast:

The International Monetary Fund warned that the trade war between the United States and China would reduce the global economic growth in 2019 to the lowest level since the financial crisis in 2008-2009, but the economy would rebound if the additional tariffs were removed. The next round of high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States will affect the supply and demand changes in the crude oil market to be further observed. The market is mainly guided by the news, so the data analysts of the business agency expect that the ethylene price will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future.

I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China in early October was 2466 yuan / ton, while on October 15, the average price of nitric acid in East China was 2100 yuan / ton, down 14.86%.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid continued to decline. As of October 15, Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 2100 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton compared with the pre holiday offer; Anhui Jinhe offered 2100 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton compared with the pre holiday offer; Shandong helitai offered 2100 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton compared with the pre holiday offer. Anhui Audley offered 1950 yuan / ton, 650 yuan / ton lower than that before the festival; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offered 2200 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton lower than that before the festival. At present, the demand for nitric acid is not good, and the price of the negative manufacturers is constantly reduced.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the upstream raw material of nitric acid, fell first and then rose slightly in Shandong after the festival according to the monitoring of the business association; the price of aniline and TDI, the downstream products, remained stable last week compared with that before the festival. The market price of aniline in Shandong is 7600 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing is 7800 yuan / ton. The price trend of TDI in the East China market is up. On the 14th, the price of TDI in the East China market was 13100.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.29%.

III. future forecast

The demand of nitric acid market is light, and the nitric acid analyst of the business agency thinks that the nitric acid market may continue to decline.

On October 14, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 19.43% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 14th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Unit was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Unit was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being, due to the introduction of new units in China. The market supply of xylene is normal and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene market in Asia rose by 15 US dollars/ton on October 11. The closing price is 793-795 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 813-815 US dollars/ton CFR China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On October 11, WTI crude oil futures market rose to 54.70 US dollars / barrel, or 1.15 US dollars, while Brent crude oil futures rose to 60.51 US dollars / barrel, or 1.41 US dollars. According to OPEC’s October oil market report, the crude oil output of 14 OPEC countries in September was about 28.49 million barrels / day, down 1318 tons / day, mainly Saudi Arabia ala. Production declined in Burma and Iraq, but crude oil production increased in Angola and Congo. In September 2019, the proportion of OPEC crude oil in global output fell by 0.8% to 29.3% compared with last month. The rising price of crude oil has a cost-supporting effect on downstream petrochemical products, and the domestic price trend of paraxylene is stable. Recent textile industry market shocks, PTA market start-up rate declined, PTA price trend shocks, the average price of East China in the vicinity of 5100-5200 yuan/ton, as of 12 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 87.5%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, due to sufficient PTA supply, general trading atmosphere, mainly traders, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, by crude oil price shocks. The downstream PTA market price will remain low due to the turbulence. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain 6,800 yuan/ton in the short term.