1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market price of asphalt fell sharply in March. At the end of the month, the price of asphalt was reported as 3250 yuan / ton, down 4.97% compared with that at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: in March, the price of international crude oil market fell sharply, the cost of asphalt kept dropping, and the demand of asphalt market fell to a low point, and the price of domestic asphalt market kept falling.

Industry chain: the OPEC + conference collapsed, Saudi Arabia and Russia successively announced the news of continuous release of a substantial increase in production. At the same time, due to the impact of the overseas epidemic, more and more countries have taken measures to restrict travel, forcing more refineries to gradually reduce production. Goldman Sachs predicted that the global demand for crude oil in March will fall by 10.5 million barrels / day, and may fall by 18.7 million barrels / day in April. It is still possible that the relevant agencies will continue to reduce their crude oil demand expectations. The international crude oil market fell sharply to $20 / barrel, WTI crude oil fell by 54% and Brent crude oil by 45%.

In the aspect of asphalt Market: in March, the crude oil market price continued to fall, the asphalt production cost continued to decrease, Sinopec’s Asphalt prices in East China and South China decreased by 200 yuan / ton, and the asphalt transaction prices in Northeast China, Shandong and Hebei continued to decrease, which made it difficult to stop the market price decline. And the domestic asphalt just needs to recover is limited, and the trend of crude oil price is pessimistic. Major institutions continue to reduce the price expectation in the later period, the market mentality is pessimistic, there are fewer transactions, and the space for asphalt reduction continues to expand. In March, the domestic asphalt market price continued to be lowered.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst at business news agency, believes that the overseas epidemic situation is on the rise, and there is no sign of production reduction in Saudi Arabia and Russia, and the international crude oil market is under pressure. In addition, April has not yet reached the peak season of asphalt demand, and it is expected that the asphalt price will be adjusted mainly below.

1、 Price trend

The domestic methanol market continued to decline. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the week was 1702 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic methanol market at the end of the week was 1612 yuan / ton, down 5.29% in the week, 20.27% month on month, 31.96% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: methanol market continued to decline this week, and the delivery atmosphere was better. At the beginning of the week, Guanzhong area fell by 200 yuan / ton to 1400-1460 yuan / ton, the profit of production enterprises shrank seriously, the bottom reading operation of downstream and traders increased, and the on-site negotiation was active; Inner Mongolia and Northern Shaanxi area fell to 1350-1400 yuan / ton of ex factory spot exchange, the production enterprises strengthened their prices, and the seller’s advantages gradually showed; the traditional downstream of Xinjiang continued to be depressed, the demand side was insufficient, and the supply in Xinjiang continued to be weak 800 yuan / ton ex factory spot exchange to Ningxia, 1350 yuan / ton tax inclusive from the sources outside Xinjiang. At present, the production and sales of regional production enterprises are basically balanced this week, and the inventory is kept within the controllable range. In terms of supply, Xianyang’s main factory will store the maintenance plan next week, which will boost the market.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market fell in a narrow range. The overall operation of the market started smoothly, the upstream formaldehyde market continued to explore, the production cost of formaldehyde enterprises followed the reduction, and the theoretical profit was acceptable, but the demand of the downstream market was limited, which led to the difficulty of formaldehyde enterprises’ shipment. Under this pressure, some enterprises reduced their profits and shipped at low prices.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market is light this week. After the price quoted by mainstream manufacturers rose, it fell back, and the overall market atmosphere was bearish. Then the price quoted by Henan manufacturers followed the correction. Although the market did not form an overall decline, the transaction was very light under the market bearish sentiment. Although the northwest supplier increased slightly last week, the customer said that the real price was still stable, and the low-end goods source successively hit North China. The northwest supplier’s recent transaction was smooth, and the inventory dropped significantly. However, the inventory of manufacturers in Shandong and Henan is still high, and the overall negative situation of acetic acid market is difficult to ease.

Dimethyl ether: this week, the domestic price of dimethyl ether continued to be low as a whole, and some regional prices rebounded slightly. International negative factors continue to spread, leading to the decline of crude oil. The price fluctuation has a close relationship with the upstream raw material methanol and terminal liquefied gas of DME, whether from the linkage of commodities or the relevance of downstream products. Under its influence, the momentum of the rise of methyl ether on Tuesday was insufficient and the price was mainly low. However, after a period of wait-and-see, the inventory of terminal gas stations is generally low, and there is a certain demand for replenishment. At the beginning of April, xinlianxin, a leading enterprise of dimethyl ether in Henan Province, planned two sets of units to be overhauled in turn, and the impact is expected to last about 60 days. The decline of its output has an impact on the market, and the market supporting behavior of enterprises has led to a slight rebound in the price of DME.

3、 Future forecast

Business club’s view: on the positive side, the domestic methanol price continues to decline, some of which has fallen near the cost line, and some of the factories have lost money; most of the factories in the main production area have little inventory pressure, and the purchase of purchased olefins is relatively considerable. On the negative side, overseas public security incidents triggered market concerns. The trend of international crude oil, finance and stock market was weak, and market participants were worried about it. The port demand was limited, and the arrival of inventory was stable, but the unloading speed was slow due to the tight storage capacity. After Iran’s gas limit was eased, methanol production increased, and it is expected to arrive in China in late March. The world financial environment has affected the domestic economic environment, and the mentality of methanol participants has been affected. Although the price has fallen to a historical low, there is little intention to copy and speculate. At present, the financial environment and international oil price have become the main logic affecting the bulk commodities, and the product fundamentals have little impact. Methanol analysts of the business club predict that the methanol rate will continue to decline next week.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market of PA6 in China fell in the middle and last ten days of March, with a large price reduction. As of Thursday, March 26, the main offer price of Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 was 10633.33 yuan / ton, 11.39% lower than the average price of the second weekend in March.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In early March, the price of caprolactam upstream of PA6 fell due to negative external news from crude oil and chemical industry. By the end of last ten days, the decline of pure benzene was still in progress with a wide range. The upstream caprolactam enterprises of PA6 are under heavy pressure due to the sharp drop of cost end. The market holds wait-and-see mood more, the demand of downstream is weakened, and the merchants reduce the orders. It is predicted that the caprolactam market will be in a weak position in a short period of time; the price of caprolactam in the upper reaches will decline significantly, PA6 cost surface will collapse, and the cost end support will be hard to find. At present, the price of PA6 in China continues to weaken, and the inventory consumption of slicing enterprises is slow. The downstream return rate is not high, following the strategy of bargain hunting and appropriate replenishment. The business offers are flexible and the market atmosphere is negative. Another source said that the recent international health events caused difficulties in the supply of chemicals at home and abroad, and orders of plastic and chemical enterprises were cancelled. There are many difficulties in the industrial chain. It is expected that PA6 market will not improve in the short term.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in the second week of March, the domestic PA6 market fell, and some spot prices fell significantly. The trend of upstream caprolactam is not good, and the support for PA6 cost end is weak. The resumption of downstream factories needs to be further improved and the demand remains low. In recent years, the domestic market atmosphere is cold, and the operators sell at a profit. It is expected that PA6 market will continue weak adjustment in the near future, so it is recommended to operate cautiously.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the commodity list of business association, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province on the 23rd was 1026.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province on the 24th was 1000.00 yuan / ton, down 2.60%. The current price is 23.47% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the domestic market has fallen. As of the 24th, the main factory quotation in Hebei is about 820 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 920 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is 1100 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons and formaldehyde content of 37%, which have been restarted. Formaldehyde market stock increased, formaldehyde factory mentality is short, the price all the way down.

Industry chain: upstream methanol situation: domestic methanol spot continued to decline, the northwest of the main production area dropped significantly, Inner Mongolia and Northern Shaanxi dropped to 1400-1550 yuan / ton; the consumption market fell synchronously. The methanol social inventory of ports in East and South China continued to increase, with a total inventory of 1031500 tons. Among them, the inventory of East China increased, and that of South China went to storage this week. The inventory accumulation in Jiangsu area is mainly due to the concentration of Taicang and Nanjing to the ship, but the pick-up volume in the week has not been significantly improved. The reason for Guangdong to go to the warehouse is that there are few imported ships this week. It is expected that the ships arriving at the port will be delayed due to the unloading at the last port. But the downstream market is mainly on demand, and the overall transaction is light. Formaldehyde enterprises in order to ship low prices, formaldehyde market all the way down.

3、 Future forecast

Recently, the upstream methanol market fell, the cost side fell, and the demand side was weak, so the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society predicted that the domestic formaldehyde price or low consolidation was the main trend in the near future.

Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of business association, from February 2020, the market of dimethyl ether has shown a downward trend. In March, the decline of dimethyl ether increased, especially in the last half of the month. On March 8, the average ex factory price of dimethyl ether was 2930 yuan / ton, and on March 23, the average price was 2583.33 yuan / ton. During this period, the price of dimethyl ether fell by 11.83%, 21.95% lower than that of the same period last year. At present, the price of dimethyl ether has reached a new low in nearly a decade, and the decline has not stopped.

In March, the trend of DME declined as a whole, with only a small rebound during the period. At the beginning of the month, with the support of crude oil, the civil market of liquefied gas continued to rise, and the downstream market entered the market for staged replenishment. The trading atmosphere in the DME market improved, and a slight rebound occurred on the 5th, but then it returned to the decline under the influence of the international crude oil slump. Entering this week, the transaction atmosphere of dimethyl ether market continued to be light and did not improve. This week, the decline of liquefied gas is obvious, more than 3000 yuan / ton, which has a great impact on DME. The price difference between gas and ether is gradually reduced, and the pressure of DME is downward. At the weekend, Henan xinlianxin once again carried out the policy of bottom protection, and the settlement price was lowered by 20 yuan / ton after the announcement, and the downward trend of the two methyl ether Market is still continuing.

Industry chain: on March 15, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 3466.67 yuan / ton, and on March 19, the average price was 2750 yuan / ton. On March 19, the daily decline was as high as 10.33%, the weekly price drop was 20.67%, and the price fell 29.97% compared with the same period last year. Affected by the decline of international crude oil, the civil market of liquefied gas follows the trend. Most of the civil gas in Shandong market has fallen below the 3000 yuan mark, and the civil gas market in other parts of the country is also on the edge of 3000 yuan. At present, the market supply has increased compared with the previous stage, but the load reduction production is more, the terminal market is not fully opened, and the demand is limited, and the market is still in a situation of supply exceeding demand. The downstream market sentiment is not high, and the attitude of “buying up, not buying down” is more wait-and-see. The manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, the inventory pressure is large, and the price drops broadly.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 0 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 11th week of 2020 (3.16-3.20). There are 16 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 7 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 43.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 18.34%), liquefied gas (- 18.23%) and Brent crude oil (- 14.50%). This week’s average was – 6.6%.

Future market forecast: on March 19, the crude oil market rebounded, especially the WTI settlement price rose by 27% in a single day, the largest one-day increase in recent years, which is good for the market mentality. Today (23) the liquefied gas market recovered and some rebounded. However, the crude oil fell in the morning, and the demand for dimethyl ether is still general, the terminal digestion capacity is limited, and the overall market is still weak. It is expected that in the short term, the weak adjustment will be dominant, and the long-term trend of crude oil still needs attention.