On April 6, the rare earth index was 334, the same as yesterday, 66.60% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 23.25% higher than the lowest point, 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals decreased by 2500 yuan / ton to 360000 yuan / ton, 2325000 yuan / ton and 635000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxide decreased by 1000 yuan / ton to 262500 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide was 1795000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide decreased by 5000 yuan / ton to 305000 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide decreased by 2500 yuan / ton to 282000 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy decreased by 2000 yuan / ton to 332500 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1795000 yuan / ton.

In the rare earth market, the price trend of rare earth continued to fall, and the domestic heavy rare earth market was well supplied. Myanmar unilaterally closed the customs clearance port, but the domestic manufacturers continued to resume work, the domestic supply increased, and the domestic heavy rare earth price trend continued to fall. The reduction of orders in the rare earth terminal industry is transmitted to the reduction of demand for upstream rare earth raw materials. In addition, domestic metal factories and downstream enterprises mostly maintain on-demand procurement, and the overall transaction situation of market orders is weak. Some upstream businesses are actively shipping, and the quotation of upstream businesses is gradually moving down. In recent years, the demand for permanent magnet has declined, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products has been slightly lower, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth has weakened in recent years, and some market prices have continued to decline. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controlled the sales, but in the near future, the downstream demand declined, and some rare earth prices fell.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the Ministry of natural resources and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the issuance of the total amount control index (the first batch) for the exploitation of rare earth ores and tungsten ores in 2020, which clarified that the total amount control index for the exploitation of the first batch of rare earth ores (rare earth oxide REO) in China is 66000 tons, and the total amount control index for the exploitation of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) is 52500 tons. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the downstream demand is not good, and the market price continues to fall.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect the supply of domestic heavy rare earth market to be normal in the near future, and the downstream demand to be weakened. But recently, Lynas group, the largest rare earth producer outside China, Australia’s rare earth miner, is the largest in the world On March 31, Corp said it would follow the Malaysian government’s order to extend the closure time of Malaysian factories for two weeks to April 14, and expected the momentum of the rebound of rare earth market prices in the later period.

On April 3, the PX commodity index was 34.40, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 66.41% lower than the highest point of 102.40 on February 28, 2013. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 till now)

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China is temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and the operation rate of domestic p-xylene plant is stable In about 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 2, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 19 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 439-441 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 459-461 US dollars / ton CFR China. More than 40% of PX in China needs to be imported. Recently, driven by the rise of crude oil price, the external price of PX rose, while the market price trend of PX was stable.

As of the 2nd day, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the US rose sharply, with main contracts at 25.32 yuan / barrel, or 5.01 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures market price rose sharply, the main contract was 29.94 US dollars / barrel, up 5.20 US dollars. Due to the possibility of production reduction agreement between Russia and Russia, the crude oil price was supported to some extent, the international crude oil price closed up, and the domestic p-xylene price was supported and the trend was temporarily stable.

In terms of downstream PTA, the price of domestic PTA spot market rebounded slightly. As of April 3, the market average price was 3296.67 yuan / ton, and PTA price rebounded slightly in recent two days. Affected by the rise of crude oil price, the price of PTA Market in the downstream rebounded higher. In the near future, Fuzhou chemical industry and trade and BP Zhuhai were restarted, and the domestic PTA plant load increased by 7.06% to 82.53%. At present, the overall inventory pressure in the market is still large. Domestic polyester production fell to 80.73% and weaving industry production rate was 58.3%. The United States actively brokered oil price negotiations. Oil prices rose rapidly, PTA prices rose. At present, the load has returned to a higher level, inventory remains high, and polyester warehouses exist for 30-35 days. Affected by the decline of export orders, the inventory and capital pressure of textile enterprises rose, but PTA price rose due to the support of crude oil, while the domestic price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

Recently, the crude oil price has risen, the downstream PTA market price rebounded, and the downstream demand of the terminal has not improved significantly. The business analysts believe that PX market price may maintain a low volatility trend.

1、 Price trend

Yellow phosphorus prices fell in March, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 17700 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 16500 yuan / ton. The price fell within the month by 6.78%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: yellow phosphorus prices fell this month. The start-up of yellow phosphorus enterprises has increased slightly, and there are many enterprises planned to resume production in the near future. The local market of yellow phosphorus is average, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is not high, the wait-and-see mood is obvious, and the mentality of traders is unstable. By the end of the month, the mainstream price in Yunnan is about 16200-16300 yuan / ton. The main price in Sichuan is about 16800-17000 yuan / ton. The main price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 16200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: at the beginning of this month, the overall operation of domestic phosphorus ore market was basically restored. The recovery of phosphorus ore market in Guizhou is relatively fast, and the operation rate in Yunnan is still low. Up to now, the domestic phosphorus ore market is still in stable operation as a whole after a small fluctuation in March. At present, in Guizhou Province, 28% of the grade phosphate ore plants quote 320-340 yuan / ton; 30% of the grade phosphate ore plants quote 340-370 yuan / ton. Hubei area: the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore shipboard is about 380-410 yuan / ton. Yunnan area: 28% of the price of ammonium phosphate ore car plate is about 270-290 yuan / ton. Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) market price, the mainstream price in 1830 yuan / ton, is expected to maintain stability in the short term. This month, the phosphoric acid market was not trading well, and the overall waiting atmosphere of the market was strong. Phosphate Market operation rate is not high, enterprises temporarily wait and see the market, the current order contract based.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the overall atmosphere of yellow phosphorus in China this month is poor, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the wait-and-see mood is strong, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the weak operation of yellow phosphorus price is the main factor.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the potassium sulfate market continued to rise in March, with the highest price increase of more than 100 yuan. In the spring farming season, the potassium sulfate sales peak season, plus the low operating rate after the previous year, no inventory pressure, the price went up all the way.

2、 Market analysis

At the beginning of March, the agricultural demand for potash fertilizer increased continuously, the start-up of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises increased significantly, the upstream potassium chloride market also increased gradually, and the potassium sulfate Market improved accordingly. After the year, the shutdown and maintenance of the plants in Mannheim’s potassium sulphate enterprises were more frequent, with the operating rate of about 50%. The water and salt system only started to operate with luok. The enterprises had no inventory pressure, and the price of hydrochloric acid was stuck upside down, and the market began to rise steadily. By the end of March, the operating rate of potassium sulphate industry in Mannheim, the Northeast market, was still as high as 80%. Although there was no upward momentum in the price of potassium sulphate, the overall price was mainly stable. The main factory price of 52% water-soluble powder and 50% Extruded round grain was 2850 yuan / ton, basically no preferential policy. The registration station of potassium sulphate manufacturer in water salt system: Xinjiang 51-52% powder 3100-3150; Qinghai 50% powder 2300-2380. Many Mannheim manufacturers have too many orders, some of which have been scheduled for the middle and late April.

3、 Industrial chain

Upstream: the fluctuation trend of potassium chloride price will continue for a period of time, because there is a lot of port inventory and the border trade continues to arrive, the price should not fall sharply, and once the negotiation of large contracts continues to delay, it is not ruled out that the price may also fluctuate slightly again.

Downstream: at the end of March, the demand for compound fertilizer in spring has basically entered a period of completion, and the demand space has been more than half, so there is no big wave in the short term.

4、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that at present, Mannheim manufacturers’ orders are mainly shipped in the early stage, and the quotation tends to be high-end gradually. The volume of new orders is fair, and the shipping pressure is not big. It is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term and pay attention to the change of upstream potassium chloride market at any time.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of the business association, the average factory price of domestic refined naphtha as of March 31 was 5260.00 yuan / ton, down 16.20% from 6276.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of refined naphtha continued to fall sharply this month.

On March 30, the naphtha commodity index was 66.15, down 1.65 points from yesterday, down 35.54% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 56.61% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of ground refined naphtha continued to fall sharply this month. At present, the mainstream price of hydrogenated naphtha is about 4700 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 47.09 USD / barrel at the beginning of the month, 20.09 USD / barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 57.34%; Brent crude oil is 51.73 USD / barrel at the beginning of the month, 26.42 USD / barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of – 48.93%. At the OPEC + meeting, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that their production has increased substantially. Meanwhile, affected by the overseas epidemic, more and more countries have taken measures to restrict travel, forcing more refineries to gradually reduce production. Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream price of toluene in East China is about 3050 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of isomerized xylene in East China is about 3180 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of p-xylene is about 4300 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analyst of business club, affected by the overseas epidemic situation, the naphtha market in Asia is operating at a low level. Recently, the refining supply has increased, but the demand is limited. At present, a small number of refineries sell large quantities of naphtha in advance. In April, the market supply and demand are not significantly good. It is expected that the price of naphtha in April will continue to decline, with the average price range of 4500-5200 yuan / ton.