According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, starting from September 23rd, the domestic palm oil market has gradually risen, with prices increasing. During the National Day holiday, palm oil prices continued to rise in foreign markets, and after the holiday, palm oil opened with a significant increase, with spot prices following suit. On September 23rd, the average market price of palm oil was 8972 yuan/ton, and on October 9th, the average market price of palm oil was 9598 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.98%.
The bullish support has led to a significant increase in the palm oil market after the holiday
Since September 23rd, the palm oil market has strengthened. The boosting effect of Malaysian palm oil is limited. Among them, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 2.42% month on month from September 1st to 30th, 2025. Malaysia’s palm oil production is expected to decline, while offshore palm oil futures prices are expected to rise. During the National Day holiday, Malaysia’s palm oil export data was strong, and inventory estimates were lowered. The overseas palm oil market continues to rise, with an increase of over 4%. Palm oil opened sharply after the holiday, with an opening price of 9452 yuan/ton and a closing price of 9570 yuan/ton, up 3.05% from September 30th. The futures market has been boosted, and the domestic palm oil spot market has also risen, with an average market price of 9600 yuan/ton and a daily increase of over 300 yuan/ton.
The palm oil analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the significant rise in the palm oil market this round is mainly due to the external market pull during the National Day period, which led to a supplementary increase. The market has risen too high, and after the sharp rise, it has gradually experienced a downward trend. In the fourth quarter, palm oil enters the peak season, and rigid demand increases. It is expected that the palm oil market will mainly fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of acetic acid continued to rise in September. As of September 30th, the price was 2640 yuan/ton, an increase of 210 yuan/ton or 8.64% compared to the acetic acid price of 2430 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The acetic acid price market was strong in September. The utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity continued to decrease during the month, and the market inventory was not high. At the same time, downstream demand increased during the traditional peak season, and enterprise shipments were smooth. Manufacturers’ inventory continued to decline, and the market fundamentals showed less supply and more demand. The intention of industry players to rise continued, and the price of acetic acid continued to rise during the month.
The raw material methanol market is fluctuating and operating weakly. As of September 30th, the average price in the domestic market was 2237 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71% compared to the beginning of the month price of 2253 yuan/ton. The import volume of methanol at domestic ports continues to be high, and inventory pressure still exists. The mainland market is fluctuating due to supply and demand as well as cost factors. The continuous pressure on the supply side has led to the accumulation of enterprise inventory. The pre holiday inventory of enterprises combined with the impact of low-priced port sources has resulted in downstream production only on demand, and the monthly methanol market has once again declined.
Market forecast: Business analysts believe that the acetic acid market will remain strong and stable in the near future, with low capacity utilization on the supply side, little inventory pressure on enterprises, active downstream entry into the market, good trading atmosphere, and follow-up replenishment after the holiday. Market expectations continue to be optimistic, and it is expected that the acetic acid market will operate at a high level in the later period. Specific attention should be paid to downstream follow-up.

Zinc price in September
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the zinc price was 21824 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.14% from the zinc price of 22076 yuan/ton on September 1st.
In September, the center of gravity of zinc prices in Shanghai once again declined, showing a trend with the middle of the month as the dividing point – maintaining a consolidation trend in the early stage, and then breaking through the level to decline. This is mainly due to the weakening of macro level disturbance factors and the return of market trading logic to fundamentals. The weak trend during the peak consumption season has been confirmed, and the accumulation of inventory has suppressed prices. The domestic zinc ingot market presents a pattern of oversupply, with a weak internal and strong external fundamentals.
In terms of raw materials
In September, the import losses of zinc concentrate continued to intensify, and the import window was almost completely closed. Despite the expected arrival of lock up zinc concentrate and long-term single zinc concentrate at the port in the early stage, it is expected that the quantity of imported zinc concentrate will significantly decrease in October. During September, the price comparison between domestic and foreign markets deteriorated, and the profit loss of imported ore smelting further expanded. As a result, domestic smelters are more inclined to purchase domestically produced ore. At the same time, in order to promote the sales of imported goods, the mining trade has proactively increased the import TC. Looking ahead to October, it is expected that the domestic TC will slightly decrease, while there is still room for an upward adjustment in the import TC.
Supply and demand side
Recently, the market price of zinc has shown a downward trend, which has compressed the profit margin of the smelting industry. However, the profits generated by the by-products in the current smelting process are still considerable, which keeps the profitability of the smelter above 1000 yuan per ton. Therefore, the production enthusiasm of the smelter is still high. In September, some domestic smelters experienced a decrease in refined zinc production compared to previous months due to equipment maintenance. In October, as previously repaired smelters resume production, the supply of refined zinc in China is expected to increase to some extent.
Since the beginning of the month, there has been no obvious sign of recovery in the overall domestic consumer market. Even during the traditional peak consumption season, various consumer data performances are still below expected levels, and market vitality needs to be further stimulated. Based on the current economic situation and consumption trend analysis, it is expected that the domestic consumer market will still be difficult to show significant improvement in October, and the overall situation may remain stable and weak.
Future forecast
Entering October, it is expected that mines in northern China will experience production cuts or shutdowns, which may lead to a decrease in domestic zinc concentrate production. Correspondingly, it is expected that the processing fee (TC) for domestic zinc concentrate will be slightly reduced, while there is still a possibility of an increase in the processing fee for imported zinc concentrate. As the smelter undergoing maintenance in October gradually resumes production, the supply of refined zinc in China may increase. However, it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in the domestic demand for refined zinc consumption.

After a continuous decline in the domestic PTA market in September, the bottom has recovered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the end of September, the average market price in East China was 4612 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.01% from the beginning of the month. Worried about the continued increase in crude oil production, the expected increase in PTA supply, and lukewarm demand, the main reason for the decline was in mid to early September. At the end of the month, the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered potential supply risks. Crude oil rebounded, the supply and demand of downstream pre festival stock improved, and PTA prices recovered slightly from low levels.
The crude oil market was affected by both long and short factors, with prices fluctuating widely in September. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $65.72 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.22 per barrel. On the one hand, geopolitical factors remain one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. The Russia Ukraine issue has led to a strong operation of the crude oil market, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts benefiting the international oil market and the crude oil market. On the other hand, Saudi crude oil may increase production, leading to an increase in US crude oil inventories. In addition, with the end of the peak oil season in the US, the global economic outlook and oil demand are not optimistic, putting pressure on crude oil market prices.
In September, PTA plant maintenance and restart coexisted. Currently, the operating load of the PTA industry is around 77%, and the supply of plants has changed significantly. However, the overall spot supply is still loose, and social inventory has accumulated slightly. According to the maintenance plan, the 1.2 million ton unit of Xinjiang Zhongtai has been shut down for maintenance for two weeks starting from September 19th. The 1.1 million ton unit of INEOS Phase 2 is expected to start maintenance in mid to early October, and the Dalian unit of Hengli Petrochemical is scheduled to start annual maintenance on October 11th. In terms of new production capacity, since the beginning of this year, domestic PTA has added 5.7 million tons of production capacity, with a growth rate of 6.62%. If the 3 million ton plant of Dushan Energy Phase 4 is put into operation as scheduled in October, the total production capacity growth rate of the PTA industry will further increase to 10.11%, and the market supply pressure will further increase.
At the end of the month, due to the pre holiday impact, some downstream polyester factories made up small amounts of inventory, and local production and sales rebounded. Currently in the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden September and Silver October”, the downstream polyester market has not seen the expected significant rebound in demand, and the overall market performance is flat, with limited support for upstream PTA prices. Terminal orders have moderately rebounded, but the order volume is average and constrained by high inventory status. Weaving factories are cautious in purchasing raw materials such as polyester filament, mainly in small quantities.
Business analysts believe that the weakening of cost support and the continued deployment of new PTA production capacity have intensified market concerns about oversupply. The downstream replenishment before the National Day holiday has basically ended, and the loose supply pattern will continue thereafter. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to operate weakly in October.

In September, aluminum prices first strengthened and then weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 26, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20783.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% compared to the market average price of 20636.67 yuan/ton on September 1.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 20000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
Recent favorable factors
Aluminum inventory in the previous period decreased (warehouse receipts decreased)
According to the data released in the previous issue, on September 26, 2025, the aluminum futures warehouse receipts were 63230 tons, a decrease of 1178 tons compared to the previous period.
Electrolytic aluminum inventory remains relatively low
On September 25th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumer areas in China was 614000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the social inventory of 620000 tons on September 4th, and a decrease of 23000 tons from the social inventory of 637000 tons on September 22nd. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased first and then decreased during the month. In the early stage (9.4-9.22), the inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, partly due to the high operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum and sufficient supply. On the other hand, although the peak consumption season of “Golden September” has arrived and some downstream enterprise orders have improved, the overall demand growth may not have fully absorbed the newly added supply, resulting in a slight increase in inventory. As the holiday approaches, the demand for replenishing inventory in the market has increased this week, while social inventory has decreased.
The inventory of aluminum bars in the market has decreased (inventory reduction)
As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of aluminum bars in mainstream consumption areas in China has dropped to 123000 tons, a significant decrease of 12000 tons from last Thursday. This is mainly due to the increase in market automobile transportation, the continuous low operation of warehouse arrival volume, and limited supply side increment; As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream processing enterprises have started pre holiday stocking, leading to a month on month increase in outbound volume of 0.41 million tons to 4.75 million tons. On September 26th, the total inventory of aluminum bars in China (51500 tons in Guangdong and 26500 tons in Wuxi) was 78000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from the previous period.
Recent bearish factors
The spot price of alumina has fallen (average price has decreased)
Recently, the spot price of alumina has shown a downward trend, with an average price decrease. On September 26th, the spot price of domestic alumina partially fell, with prices in the southern region of China ranging from 3080 to 3130 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous trading day; The price of alumina per ton in East China is between 2910-2950 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous trading day; The prices of alumina in the southwest and northwest regions remained unchanged from the previous trading day. Since September, the spot price of metallurgical grade alumina in China has continued to decline, with a decrease of over 2.5% compared to the end of August and a decrease of nearly 20% compared to the same period last year.
Future forecast
Raw material side: The operating capacity of alumina is at a high level and continues to accumulate inventory, with limited cost support for aluminum prices.
Downstream demand side: As the peak season in China gradually approaches, the demand for aluminum ingots in stock has improved, and the operating rate of primary processing enterprises has increased month on month.

Overall, the upward space for aluminum prices has narrowed, but the trend is mainly based on the actual demand landing downstream, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short term.