Product Name: Isopropanol

Latest price: The average market price on April 23rd is 8680 yuan/ton.

Analysis point: On April 23rd, the market price of isopropanol increased. Internationally, isopropanol foreign trade orders are relatively good, and isopropanol factories mainly issue foreign trade orders. On the domestic side, the raw material acetone has significantly increased, providing strong support for the raw material. Boosting confidence in the isopropanol market, active trading on the exchange, and difficulty in finding low-priced sources of goods.

Prediction: In the short term, the isopropanol market is expected to operate strongly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 15th to 22nd, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market remained at 9662 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.32% and a year-on-year increase of 1.71% during the cycle. The raw material pure benzene tends to fluctuate strongly, resulting in high cost pressure. Part of the cyclohexanone units have been shut down, resulting in a slight decrease in the supply of cyclohexanone in stock. Downstream purchases are more on demand, and under cost pressure, the low price of cyclohexanone in the market has decreased.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuates at a high level. As of April 22nd, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8717.17 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is close to 70%, which is at a relatively low level. The weekly operating load of cyclohexanone is 66.36%, and the weekly production is 100600 tons, which is a decrease from the previous cycle. The supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The market price of caprolactam has fallen, some maintenance devices have resumed, supply has increased, and downstream PA6 chip prices have partially fallen. The procurement of raw materials for polymerization factories has slowed down, and overall market confidence is weakening. The focus of spot negotiations for caprolactam is decreasing. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

In the future market forecast, the raw material pure benzene is operating in a volatile manner, with high cost pressure. Downstream demand is average, and the market spot supply is stable. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has seen a high rise, and spot prices of various brands have been adjusted. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 19th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12450 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 2.36% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: This week, the domestic ABS industry has taken on the pattern of load reduction and adjustment in the early stage, with an average weekly operating rate of around 56%. Although there has been a resumption of work in Dagu, Tianjin recently, there will be varying degrees of load reduction in Haijiang, Shandong, and Lihuayi in the future, and the supply of goods on site will still be reduced. The supply side has strong support for ABS spot goods.

Cost factor: In recent times, the overall trend of ABS upstream materials has maintained the previous pattern, with the acrylonitrile market continuing to rise. The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid ammonia have risen, and the cost support for acrylonitrile is strong; After the load of the acrylonitrile unit decreased in the early stage, the supply side declined, and there has been no news of resuming work recently. The main enterprises have actively increased prices, forming supplier support for acrylonitrile; The overall downstream consumption situation is mainly based on demand, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate mainly in the high range in the future.

This week, the domestic butadiene market remained strong at a high level. The external market prices are high, and some sources of goods are trading overseas orders during the export window period. At the same time, some auction sources sold at a premium to support spot prices. Domestic production has rebounded narrowly, and the pressure on the supply side of butadiene is not significant. The consumption of downstream major industries is average, and it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to operate at a high level in the future.

The styrene market remained positive this week. In the early stage, the inventory of styrene at the port was digested smoothly, but in recent times, both supply and demand have increased, and market momentum has increased. The inflow of funds into the market has had an impact, leading to an increase in bullish sentiment among businesses. At the same time, costs have not yet moved away from the high support position, and it is expected that styrene may still rise in the future.

In terms of demand: Recently, the main terminal demand for ABS has remained stable, and the overall factory load has remained stable with minor fluctuations. The stocking operation is mainly focused on buying in demand. The current low-end supply in the market is decreasing, and traders are actively reporting high. Considering the high rise in ABS prices, buyers are gradually showing resistance to high-end supply. On exchange trading is average, and the demand side is helping to stabilize the market.

Technical analysis

The probability of an upward trend in the ABS market is higher than that of a downward trend, and spot prices may continue to rise within a narrow range. According to the prediction model of the Business Society Commodity Analysis System, since January 14, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 39.13%.

Historical price monitoring [medium to low]: Since the beginning of 2024, ABS prices have been continuously in an upward trend. The current monitoring levels are 1-year high, 2-year medium, and 3-year medium low. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ABS in the past three years is 13420.95 yuan/ton, with a median value of 14475 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 10300 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 18650 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest historical price difference in the past three years) is 2150 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest historical price difference in the past three years) is -6200 yuan/ton.

This week, the 30 day moving average of ABS fluctuated from 87.5 yuan to 227.08 yuan, indicating a fluctuating upward trend in ABS prices.

Future Market Forecast

The current domestic ABS prices are maintaining a high and rising trend. From a fundamental perspective, the momentum of the upstream three materials of ABS has not weakened, and it is expected that the market will continue to maintain a high level in the future, with strong support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of ABS polymerization plant is expected to remain at a low level, and supply tends to be tight. Due to the high price range of ABS, it has affected some stocking consumption. The current demand side just needs to enter the market, and the support for spot goods is gradual. Technically speaking, the probability of the 7-day line crossing the 30-day line in the short term is relatively small, and the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe indicates that the probability of ABS maintaining a strong market in the future is higher. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market will remain strong at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the trend of demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, palm oleic acid operated steadily this week. As of April 18th, the mainstream price of palm oleic acid (purity ≥ 70) in China was 11466.67 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from last week and increased by 0.29% compared to April 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

Since April, the palm oil market has been mainly oscillating and declining. As of April 17th, the average price of palm oil in the market is 8038 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 5%. In the near future, Malaysia’s palm oil has been in a production increase cycle, and the bearish sentiment is still present, putting pressure on the rise of palm oil in the future.

Demand side:

The demand in the downstream market appears weak, the consumption speed at the end is relatively slow, the usage is not improving, the purchasing willingness is poor, and the demand side is bearish, affecting the palm oil acid market.

This week, the utilization rate of palm oleic acid production capacity was around 6.2 levels. Due to poor shipment volume, inventory gradually accumulated, and producers mainly focused on handling inventory, resulting in a delay in cost side bearish sentiment.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The inventory of palm oleic acid is currently quite abundant, and downstream factories mainly purchase based on actual demand, with a relatively cautious attitude. Although the main downstream factories maintain a normal production rhythm, the operating rate of the terminal factories is relatively low, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high. In the future, palm oil prices are under pressure due to rising prices, and there is room for price increases in raw materials. Cost support is expected to strengthen, and it is expected that the range of the palm oleic acid market will mainly consolidate.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since April, the hydrogen peroxide market has weakened and prices have fluctuated and fallen. On April 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 946 yuan/ton. On April 17th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 916 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 3.17%.

Negative pressure on hydrogen peroxide market oscillation and decline

In early April, the performance of terminal paper and caprolactam was average, with a decrease in the amount of purchased hydrogen peroxide. The hydrogen peroxide market was mainly weak and the price was slightly lowered, with an overall quotation of 900-950 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, the market for caprolactam surged, and the quantity of purchased hydrogen peroxide increased. The hydrogen peroxide market slightly increased, but due to the still sluggish market for printing paper and other products, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline weakly after the rise. As of April 17th, hydrogen peroxide has decreased by over 3% compared to the beginning of the month.

Chemical analysts from Business Society believe that in late April, terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide remained sluggish, putting pressure on the market’s future upward trend.