According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market rose at the end of June, with most brand products experiencing price increases. As of June 25th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7493.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of+1.35% compared to the price level at the beginning of June.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
Since early June, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe has remained highly tense. The market is increasingly concerned about the risk of crude oil supply. At the same time, the seasonal increase in fuel demand has boosted the market synchronously. However, the expected ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran recently reduced the risk of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East, and oil prices quickly fell after rising. Due to the transmission of the previous rise in crude oil prices, propane and propylene in China have now risen to high levels, and the cost support for PDH and propylene production enterprises is still strong. Overall, the recent prices of PP raw materials have provided strong support for costs, and it is recommended to closely monitor international oil prices in the future.
Supply side:
At the end of June, the load of domestic PP enterprises fluctuated narrowly, and the market supply remained abundant. Overall, the current industry’s overall load level has been slightly adjusted to around 78.6% compared to nearly 80% in the middle of the year. The weekly average total production has increased to over 780000 tons, and domestic inventory has accumulated to over 820000 tons. The Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Fourth Line was put into operation on June 19th within the interval. At the same time, both Zhenhai Line and Zhejiang Petrochemical have reduced their production capacity and basically flattened their production capacity. However, in addition to the 500000 tons/year new production capacity of Zhenhai Fourth Line that has already been put into operation, and the presence of Yulong Petrochemical and other enterprises in the fourth quarter, a total of 900000 tons of new production capacity has been put into operation, severely limiting the future supply pattern. Overall, there is still some suppression on the spot price of PP by the supply side.
In terms of demand:
At the end of June, the demand side of PP continued to be weak, and on-site trading gradually entered the traditional off-season. Merchants have hardly seen any advance stocking operations, and the on-site situation remains in a state of urgent need, with a focus on on-demand use. In terms of plastic weaving, the consumption level of terminal enterprises is already at the off-season level, and downstream PP enterprises in China are struggling to start production. There is also a certain shrinkage in materials used in construction, agriculture and other fields. On site new orders tend to focus on scattered small orders and contract deliveries, resulting in a return to flat supply liquidity and a further slowdown in PP demand release speed. The news of the second round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States in the early stage has strengthened the mentality of some industry players and stimulated the market to release some of the demand for replenishment. However, in the context of weak export and domestic demand, the demand side of PP does not provide sufficient support for spot prices.
Future forecast
At the end of June, the domestic PP market prices rose. Fundamentally speaking, there are significant fluctuations in the upstream of the far end, and propylene propane is still at a high level, indicating strong overall support for PP. Industry inventory has rebounded and supply remains abundant. Consumption is at a low season level. The current cost side benefits are intertwined with the negative effects of supply and demand contradictions, and the market speculation atmosphere has fallen. It is expected that the PP market will continue to digest the previous gains in the short term and enter a consolidation market. It is recommended to closely monitor the cost situation.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 24th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4170 yuan/ton. This week, DMF prices have been the main trend, with a strong price trend. Compared with the same period last week, the price has increased by 3.22%, or 100 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF market is observing and consolidating.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of cost, the upstream methanol market price is relatively firm, and the port trend is stronger than that of the mainland. In the short term, the port market will maintain a high level of operation, while downstream demand procurement will be the main focus. Currently, the mainland market maintains a high operating rate, and raw material procurement is cautious. Traders have a low price reluctance to sell. In terms of port: the arrival at the port is not as expected, the port market is active, and cargo rights are relatively concentrated. It is expected that prices will continue to rise in the short term.
In terms of demand: Recently, the DMF market demand has been poor, and the overall market is weak with a wait-and-see attitude. This week, the operating rate of enterprises has remained stable, and there has been no news of new device maintenance. Currently, the overall inventory is running at a high level, and the supply of spot goods exceeds the demand. The pressure on the demand side is high, and it is difficult to alleviate in the short term. The wait-and-see atmosphere is obvious, and prices are fluctuating weakly. In terms of market mentality, the supply and demand are deadlocked. Business operators have a general mentality in the future and.
On the supply side: This week, the DMF market is observing and consolidating. On the supply side, there will be equipment maintenance at the end of the month. At that time, the factory inventory was running at a high level, and the supply side is sufficient. Currently, the downstream is still in the off-season, and on-demand procurement is the main focus, with slow shipments and difficulty in increasing actual orders. It is expected that the overall market supply and demand will be balanced in the short term, and there will be no supply pressure.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the downstream DMF market is currently beyond the off-season level, with on-demand procurement as the main focus, smooth market shipments, and remaining inventory pressure. It is expected that the DMF market will operate steadily, moderately, and strongly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8037 yuan/ton on June 16th and 8117 yuan/ton on June 20th, an increase of 1.00%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9516 yuan/ton on June 16th and 9933 yuan/ton on June 20th, an increase of 4.38%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7438 yuan/ton on June 16th and 7556 yuan/ton on June 20th, an increase of 1.59%.
Recently, the trend of polyethylene market continues to be strong, with a significant increase in high-pressure prices. Affected by the intensified international geopolitical situation, crude oil prices have strengthened, providing strong support for the polyethylene market on the cost side. In addition, the maintenance of high-voltage product equipment is relatively concentrated, and the supply side is tight, which has led to a significant increase in the price of high-voltage products. Production enterprises and traders have raised their quotations one after another. The demand for agricultural film is in the off-season, with few orders from enterprises, poor demand, and limited transactions; The operating rate of downstream pipe products has declined compared to the previous period. The overall downstream demand for polyethylene is relatively weak, limiting the room for price increases.
Affected by the strong cost of crude oil, but the demand for polyethylene is in the off-season, and the expected upward space is limited.

This week, PET prices have increased. According to the price data from Shengyi Society, as of June 20th, the average selling price of PET (polyester bottle flakes) was 6272 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.7% from the beginning of the week.
In terms of cost, on June 19th, the Iran Israel conflict may spread to other regions in the Middle East, causing supply concerns due to intensified geopolitical tensions. Brent crude oil rose to $78.85 per barrel (+2.80%), PTA rose to $4990 per ton, and strong support from PET raw materials pushed the PET market up accordingly.
In terms of supply, some major factories have plans to reduce production. Leading companies have jointly announced a 20% reduction in production starting from July. Coupled with the fact that Sanfangxiang has already stopped production of 1 million tons and Baihong has been operating for 70% of the long-term, the total production capacity involved is 2.59 million tons (including 4.9 million tons of long-term shutdown equipment). Changes in the supply side have led to tight spot flow in some areas, driving up the price of polyester bottle chips. However, overall, the production of bottle flakes is still operating at a high level and production capacity is increasing. In the long run, supply pressure still exists, but the slight reduction in supply in the short term has had a certain boosting effect on prices.
In terms of demand, although the recovery of downstream demand is weak, and the replenishment of inventory is mostly for small orders of rigid demand, lacking the driving force to chase up prices, the second quarter is the peak season for downstream beverage factories to stock up, and there is a certain degree of rigid demand, which provides certain support for the price of polyester bottle chips and limits the downward space of prices.
Overall, Shengyi Society believes that the core driving force behind the price increase is mainly supply contraction and cost push. In the short term, the price of polyester bottle chips is expected to fluctuate with the cost side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on June 17th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic Shandong region was 7375 yuan/ton. Compared with June 13th (reference price of cyclohexanone was 6300 yuan/ton), the price increased by 75 yuan/ton. Compared with May 17th (reference price of cyclohexanone was 7575 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.64%.
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that since mid May, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong has been running weakly for more than a month. Until mid June, the cyclohexanone market finally experienced a recovery, with cyclohexanone factories and suppliers in Shandong region narrowly raising cyclohexanone prices. The overall negotiation focus of the market shifted slightly upward, with a price adjustment range of about 100 yuan/ton. As of June 17th, the cyclohexanone market price in Shandong region was around 7300-7400 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of cost: Currently, the pure benzene market on the cost raw material side is fluctuating and rising, and the support for cyclohexanone from the cost side is gradually increasing. The rise in cyclohexanone market is also mostly supported by the raw material side, which can be described as “rising with the original”.
Supply side: Currently, the overall supply performance of the cyclohexanone market remains relatively stable, with little overall change in the supply side, providing moderate support for the cyclohexanone market.
In terms of demand: Currently, downstream demand for cyclohexanone is mainly based on on-demand procurement, and downstream chemical fiber and solvent markets are cautious in following up on high prices, resulting in weak supply and demand transmission.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is still good. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly focus on consolidation and operation, and specific changes in supply and demand need to be closely monitored.