1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus rose slightly this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 15550 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 16100 yuan / ton at the end of this week. The price rose by 0.94% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic yellow phosphorus market rose slightly this week. The spot sales in the yellow phosphorus market are basically normal, but the spot is a little nervous, and the manufacturers are reluctant to sell. The price in Yunnan is relatively stable; the price in Guizhou rises; the price in Sichuan rises slightly. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16200 yuan / ton; that in Sichuan is about 16000 yuan / ton; that in Guizhou is about 16000 yuan / ton. With the normal water period approaching, the electricity prices in Yunnan and Sichuan have been increased, and the production costs of yellow phosphorus enterprises have increased. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises intend to raise their prices.

In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the overall operation of domestic phosphate ore market is stable. Enterprises supply orders from old customers while new orders are gradually followed up. The rising market of yellow phosphorus in the downstream has provided stable price support for raw phosphate rock. As of October 21, the current quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou is 300-360 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is 290-340 yuan / ton Nearby, Guizhou Qingli group mainly supplies 30% high-quality phosphate ore, and the export mainly supplies to Anhui old customers. The price of the new contract of 30% quality phosphate ore raw ore is 300 yuan / ton, and the transaction may be around 285 yuan / ton. In this week’s stable sorting of phosphate ore market in Yunnan, 28% of the raw ore car plate quotation reference is around 280 yuan / ton, 29% of the raw ore car plate quotation reference is around 310 yuan / ton.

Up to now, the price of coke is mainly stable today, and the fifth round of increase is basically implemented. Coking enterprises have low inventory and good sales. The demand for replenishment of the downstream reservoir is temporarily stable. Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) market price, mainstream price at 2230 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day, increased by 150 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month.

In terms of demand, the sales of phosphoric acid in local markets were normal this week, and the price of phosphoric acid increased. However, the demand has not been greatly improved. The downstream inquiry is not hot and the market transaction atmosphere is not warm. Therefore, it is difficult for the phosphoric acid market to have a substantial upward trend. It is expected that the trend will be flat in the short term, and the local government will adjust the price.

3、 Future forecast

Chemical branch of the business club yellow phosphorus analysts believe that this week’s yellow phosphorus prices continue to rise. The normal water period is approaching, the electricity price in Yunnan and Sichuan will be increased in the next month, and the production cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase. It is expected that in the short term, the price of yellow phosphorus enterprises will be dominated.

1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

Polyoxymethylene price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong Province on October 22 was 4566 yuan / ton, and that on October 19 was 4500 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.48%.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4300-4400 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4700 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than last week. The market of paraformaldehyde is acceptable, and some manufacturers raise the price of paraformaldehyde, which is boosted by the raw material methanol.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the methanol price in Shandong increased by 5.89% from October 12 to October 21.

3、 Future forecast

POM analysts believe that: affected by the good raw material methanol, paraformaldehyde may rise.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, affected by the relationship between supply and demand, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise. As of October 21, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2606 yuan / ton, up 2.09% compared with the beginning of the month and 2.09% higher than the same period of last month. At present, there are 2550-2650 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2550-2650 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2700-2800 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2380-2400 yuan / ton in Henan, 2520-2570 yuan / ton in Hebei and 2050 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

At present, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise slightly. The spot supply in the market is tight, the inventory of enterprises is low, and the domestic demand and export in the downstream market are both favorable supports. The supply and demand in the industry is tight balanced. With the price of acetic acid rising to a high level, some downstream and traders are gradually rational in purchasing, and the price of acetic acid is stable and firm.

In terms of upstream market, the methanol market was slightly higher due to the favorable factors such as overseas equipment maintenance and port continued to go to storage. At present, most traders ship at high prices. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, at present, it is about 1930 yuan / ton. On the downstream side, the terminal demand of acetic acid downstream markets such as vinyl acetate and acetate is improving. In addition, the support from the cost side is strong, and the price is rising. The favorable factors still exist in the short term, and it is expected that it will rise steadily.

Recently, the demand for acetic acid in the international market has improved, and the price of acetic acid in various regions has gradually risen. At present, the Asian acetic acid market is about 330-380 US dollars / ton; the European market is about 560 euro / ton; and the North American market is about 570 US dollars / ton.

The acetic acid analysts of the business club believe that the domestic acetic acid market supply side will not be greatly improved in a short period of time, and the market supply is limited. Although the overall inventory of the industry is low, the inventory of enterprises in other regions except East China still has a small accumulation, and the acetic acid market is stable and stable in a short period of time with limited growth.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has risen recently. On the 16th, the average price of ethylene was 778.75 US dollars / ton, and on the 19th was 770.00 US dollars / ton, down 1.12%. The current price is up 1.82% month on month, and the current price is down 12.38% compared with last year.

In the near future, the overall market of ethylene in the external market shows a downward trend. Asian ethylene market prices fell, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $850-860 per ton and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $825-835 per ton as of the 20th. The European ethylene market price fell slightly. As of the 20th, the European ethylene market price was FD, which closed at 716-729 US dollars / ton in northwest Europe and 700-711 US dollars / ton in CIF northwest Europe. The price of ethylene in the United States remained stable. As of the 20th, the price was 479-491 US dollars / ton. In the middle of October, the market of ethylene in Europe and America decreased slightly. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market was poor, and the market showed a downward trend.

International: on October 19, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell slightly, and the settlement price of the main contract was $41.06/barrel, down $0.06. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $42.62/barrel, down $0.31. Oil prices fell slightly on Monday, mainly due to worries about the epidemic and bad news about Libya’s production increase, and hopes of a US fiscal stimulus plan curbed the decline in oil prices. Crude oil market decline can not give ethylene cost support, ethylene external market continued to fall.

Recently, the market price of styrene in East China increased slightly. In terms of cost, the second escalation of European public health events has hindered the rebound of crude oil. Recently, the price of pure benzene is stable, and the cost support of styrene is general. In terms of inventory, domestic styrene factory and port inventory continued to decline, and supply was tight. Downstream start-up continued to run on the high side, strong rigid demand, some downstream prices rose sharply, driving up the price of styrene. In the near future, the East China styrene quotation has been raised to around 6250-6300 yuan / ton, and it is expected that there is room for price increase in the mainstream.

Business agency chemical branch ethylene analysts believe: the current crude oil: Libya’s crude oil production may increase significantly, depressing the market atmosphere. Crude oil decline can not form a support for the ethylene market, so business agency data analysts predict that the next ethylene external price will mainly fall below.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of October 19, the average price of domestic rubber grade grade grade silica was 4800 yuan / ton, and the domestic silica market was operating stably, with the quotation range of 4000-5000 yuan / ton.

At present, the supply and demand of black carbon in Shandong Province is slow, the supply and demand of black carbon in Shandong Province is slow, the supply and demand of black carbon in Shandong Province is slow, the supply and demand of black carbon in Shandong Province is slow, the supply and demand of black carbon in Shandong Province is slow, the supply and demand is slow, the domestic demand for black carbon is slow Ltd. 5100 yuan / ton, Boai County Xiangsheng silicon powder Co., Ltd. 4000 yuan / ton.

The quotation of upstream hydrochloric acid market manufacturers is temporarily stable, and the market trend is stable. The quotation is mainly stable. The trading atmosphere is maintained at the previous level. In the short term, the hydrochloric acid market mainly operates stably.

On October 18, the chemical index was 760, unchanged with yesterday, 25.20% lower than 1016 (2012-03-13), and 27.09% higher than 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

White carbon black analysts believe that: in the short term, the silica market maintains a stable operation situation, and the price fluctuation range is limited. (the above prices are provided by major silica manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business silica analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)