Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of zinc fluctuated and fell in January, and the price of zinc market fluctuated and fell. As of January 26, the average price of zinc was 20680.00 yuan / ton, down 3.02% from 21323.33 yuan / ton on January 1 at the beginning of the month.

Domestic zinc production

Date: output of current month (10000 tons) cumulative output (10000 tons) year on year growth (%) cumulative growth (%)

December 2020 – 60.2 642.5 – 1.5 642.7

November 2020: 58-582.1 – 0.7-3.1

October 2020 – 58.6 – 524.2 – 9.3 – 3

September 2020: 56.5-465.6-2.9-2.1

August 2020 – 53.9 – 410.9 – 5.1 – 4.3

July 2020 – 52.4 – 356.9 – 0.2 – 4.6

June 2020: 52-304.8-1.2-7.7

May 2020: 51.4 252.7 4.5 9.1

April 2020: 51.7 201.3 7.3 10.7

March 2020: 48.9 149.5 4.7 11

February 2020 — 104 — 12.9

December 2019 – 60.7 – 623.6 – 19.5 – 9.2

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in December 2020, the domestic zinc ingot output was 602000 tons, and that month’s zinc ingot output decreased by 1.5% on a year-on-year basis. The reduction of zinc supply in the zinc market has a certain positive stimulating effect on the zinc price, but the weak demand in the zinc market makes the rising power of the zinc market limited. In addition, the output of zinc market increased in the whole year, the supply of zinc market still exceeded the demand, and the rising power of zinc market was insufficient.

Summary of domestic infrastructure market

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to December 2020, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries) increased by 0.9% over the previous year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point from January to November. Among them, the investment in railway transportation industry decreased by 2.2%, with an increase of 2.0% from January to November; the investment in road transportation industry increased by 1.8%, with a growth rate of 0.4 percentage point. Domestic zinc market demand has increased, but the growth is limited, and the overall growth rate has dropped. The overall zinc market demand fell, zinc market downward pressure increased. The demand for zinc from photovoltaic and wind power is obviously stimulated. The sales data of automobiles and household appliances are good. The demand toughness of zinc market maintains. With the approach of Spring Festival, zinc plating, alloy and other enterprises successively announce holiday plans. The domestic demand for zinc downstream is expected to weaken. The short-term demand of zinc market is weak, and the situation of zinc market is declining.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, believes that: Recently, the supply and demand of zinc market are weak, and the rising power of zinc market is insufficient, and the downward pressure is increasing. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, with an average of about 3950 yuan / ton, and the zinc concentrate processing and smelting enterprises were lack of enthusiasm to start, and some enterprises announced the shutdown and maintenance plan due to the tight supply of zinc concentrate, which affected the supply of zinc city and reduced the supply of zinc City in the future; in terms of demand, the overall demand of zinc city maintained but the growth was insufficient, and with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the demand of zinc City dropped sharply, and the demand of zinc city was weak Maintain. Generally speaking, the supply and demand of zinc market decreased, but the overall supply of zinc market exceeded the demand, the rising power of zinc market weakened, and the downward pressure increased. It is expected that the short-term zinc price will fluctuate and fall slightly, while the medium-term zinc price still has room to rise, and the zinc market can be expected in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of January 25, the comprehensive price of PC market was 19666.67 yuan / ton. The PC market had a steady rise, with a slight rise. The focus of negotiation was on the upper side, and the price rose slightly, with a rise of 3.69% compared with the same period last week. The purchasing atmosphere was general and the bullish atmosphere was strong.

At present, the domestic spot supply is normal, the operating rate of enterprises is normal, and the inventory is running normally. At present, the shipment is smooth. Near the Spring Festival, traders are generally willing to prepare goods.

The upstream bisphenol a market as a whole went up, mainly through negotiation, the supply side was tight, and the focus of market negotiation was high, forming a good support for PC cost.

On January 24, the rubber and plastic index was 711 points, flat with yesterday, down 32.92% from 1060 points (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 34.66% from 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business community PC analysts believe that: the PC market is expected to be stable and strong in the short term, mainly in a narrow range. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business PC analysts. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.)

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of January 22, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade silica was 4700.00 yuan / ton. This week, the market was running smoothly, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the demand did not increase significantly. The overall supply and demand of the market was balanced, and the quotation range was maintained between 4000-5000 yuan / ton, with smooth delivery and sufficient inventory.

Domestic rubber grade silica market is mainly stable operation, contract orders, just need procurement, procurement atmosphere is flat, the number of new orders is limited, and most of them are mainly discussed. At present, the shipment is smooth, the negotiation atmosphere is general, the merchants take the goods carefully, and the shipment is slow. The latest enterprise price is Shandong Lihua 4600 yuan / ton, Boai xiang4200 yuan / ton, Shandong Shouguang 5300 yuan / ton

In the upstream hydrochloric acid market, the quotation of manufacturers is temporarily stable, the trend is mainly stable, the purchasing enthusiasm is general, the trading atmosphere is maintained at the early level, and the hydrochloric acid market is mainly stable in the short term.

On January 21, the chemical industry index was 844 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 16.93% from 1016 points (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 41.14% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business community silica analysts believe that: in the short term, the silica market maintains a stable operation, and the price fluctuation range is limited. (the above prices are provided by major silica manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business silica analysts. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.)

The domestic acetic acid market continued to rise due to the impact of enterprises’ burden reduction and downstream centralized goods preparation. As of January 20, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Hebei, northwest and South China had 4150-4250 yuan / ton, 4200-4300 yuan / ton, 4200-4500 yuan / ton, 4200-4300 yuan / ton, 3700 yuan / ton and 4200-4300 yuan / ton respectively Yuan / ton, up 7.17% over the same period last week.

Enterprise, plant capacity (10000 tons / year) plant output (tons / day)

Yankuang Cathay 110 3000

Hualu Hengsheng 50 1400

Yangtze BP 50-1300

Jiangsu Sopu ﹣ 120 ﹣ 3600

Celanese 120 2000

Hebei Jiantao 50 1000

Tianjin Bohua Group Co., Ltd

Henan Shunda 40 parking

Henan Longyu ﹣ 50 ﹣ 1500

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 40 normal production

Shanghai Huayi 70-1800

Anhui Huayi 50 1300

Dalian Hengli 35 1300

Recently, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise. Affected by the reduction of enterprise maintenance burden and downstream centralized goods preparation, the spot supply of acetic acid market was reduced, and the trade in the industry was in good condition. It was difficult to find one product in some areas, and it was difficult to effectively make up the supply side gap in a short time.

The domestic methanol market has been adjusted in a volatile manner. The rebound of market quotation is not large, the downstream acceptance intention is not strong, and the futures market is in a narrow range. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will be consolidated in the short term. At present, the price in Shandong is about 2360 yuan / ton. On the downstream side, the acetate Market was greatly affected by the cost support, the terminal market gradually entered the preparation period, and the market trading performed well.

Acetic acid analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the domestic acetic acid market performs well at both supply and demand sides, and the downstream centralized goods preparation is expected to last until the end of the month. It is difficult for the supply side to have a large growth in a short period of time. It is expected that the acetic acid market will be strong in the near future.

1、 Trend analysis

This week, copper prices surged. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 59670 yuan / ton, up 0.28% from 59503.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 2.96% from the beginning of the year, and 21.69% from the same period last year. This week, LME’s copper trend in March was weak. As of Friday, the Asian market closed at US $8010, down 0.92%; this week, the Shanghai copper index moved down, closing at 58690 yuan, down 2.69%. This week, the international copper index closed at 52200 yuan, down 2.85%.

At present, the basic supply and demand of copper market are neutral, and the suppression of epidemic situation on demand still exists. The short-term copper supply is still tight, and the processing fee is still at an absolute low level. Although the output will recover this year, most of the new capacity projects will be put into operation in the second half of the year. However, Malaysia’s tightening control measures will affect China’s imports of recycled copper in the first quarter.

At the end of the year, large-scale smelters continued to have high output, and the output of refined copper increased steadily. In December, China’s copper imports continued to decline on a month on month basis, but the import scale of the whole year in 2020 set a record. In the near future, with the coming of the off-season, the downstream demand may weaken marginally, but the total stock of the exchange is at a low level, reducing 8657 tons to 73685 tons. The current fundamentals support is limited, copper prices are expected to maintain short-term volatility weak trend.