441# silicon price trend

The price of metallic silicon continued to fall under pressure. As of May 30, according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of metallic silicon in the domestic market was 76550 yuan / ton, down 8.51% on a weekly basis. The price of raw materials is lower, the output is expected to increase, the price of metallic silicon is gradually decreasing under the bad conditions of all parties, the bargaining space is shrinking, and the upstream and downstream are mainly on the sidelines of the silicon market.

On the 30th, the prices of 441\\silicon in various regions are as follows:

The price range of \441 metallic silicon in Huangpu port area is 17600-17800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 17700 yuan / ton; The price range of \441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port is 17500-17700 yuan / ton, with an average price of 17600 yuan / ton; The price range of \441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 17300-17500 yuan / ton, with an average of 17400 yuan / ton; The price range of \441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 17100-17300 yuan / ton, with an average of 17200 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai \441 metallic silicon is 18200-18500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18350 yuan / ton.

Influencing factors of metal silicon price fluctuation

Factory aspect

With the exception of Southwest China, the cost of silicon plants has become unprofitable, the cost of raw petroleum coke and electrode is high, and some factories plan to stop production; Sichuan and Yunnan are about to usher in the wet season. The electricity price in Sichuan has been 0.36 yuan / kWh, a decrease of 0.15 yuan / kWh compared with the beginning of the month. The electricity cost has decreased. It is expected that some enterprises will resume production in June, resulting in an increase in supply. Most buyers and sellers are bearish.

Demand side

The resumption of production and new production capacity of downstream aluminum alloy and organic silicon enterprises did not meet the expectations. The operating rate of aluminum alloy was the same as that of last week, and the operating rate of leading enterprises was still 60%. At present, we only expect the downstream polysilicon projects to be put into operation one after another to bring good consumption side. The negative demand side has led to the current situation that metal silicon manufacturers sell goods at low prices to promote transactions.

Aftermarket forecast

Downstream consumption has not improved significantly, raw material electrode and petroleum coke have a limited decline, and the profits of silicon metal plant have been seriously compressed. Some silicon plants said that they would shut down the furnace and reduce production after the inventory in the plant was consumed. In addition, with the arrival of the wet season in Southwest China in June, the output and supply increased significantly. The market is expected to see supply exceeding demand, and the downstream pressure on manufacturers is becoming more serious. It is expected that the price of metal silicon will continue to decline before the Dragon Boat Festival.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on May 31 was 6614 yuan / ton, down 8.24% from the price of 7208 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and up 84.06% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In May, the domestic LNG market price fell by 8.24% during the month, and the focus shifted downward. After the festival, the logistics recovered, there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream, coupled with the maintenance of liquid plants in some regions, the favorable supply and demand pushed the liquid prices in many places in China to rise slightly, but the prices stopped rising and turned down on May 9. At present, the demand in the off-season is weak, the receiving capacity of downstream users is general, in addition, the inlet gas price is lowered, the feed gas price is lowered, and the negative factors are dominant. The domestic liquid price is falling frequently, and the market continues to be weak. By the end of the month, Inner Mongolia was 6520-6820 yuan / ton, Shaanxi 6580-6790 yuan / ton, Shanxi 6700-7000 yuan / ton, Ningxia 6600-6700 yuan / ton, Hebei 6830-7100 yuan / ton and Henan 6950-7200 yuan / ton. The terminal price is about 7300-8900 yuan / ton. The spot CIF price of LNG in China was USD 23.77/million British thermal power, and the price was lowered.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from March 7, 2022 to May 29, 2022, the domestic liquefied natural gas showed mixed gains and losses in the cycle, with the largest increase of 3.68% in the week of March 7 and the largest decrease of -4.3% in the week of May 9.

Methanol: on May 30, the reference price of methanol was 2625.00, a decrease of 4.37% compared with May 1 (2745.00). The raw coal price and oil price were strong. The downstream Tianjin Bohai Chemical MTO is expected to be put into operation. At present, the supply side is relatively abundant. Under the current situation, the supply and demand game, predicted by fantinglu, methanol analyst of the business club, is dominated by the short-term domestic methanol market or shock consolidation.

On May 30, the reference price of liquid ammonia was 5323.33, an increase of 5.07% compared with that on May 1 (5066.67). Recently, the supply of liquid ammonia may have improved. Some units in Shandong have recovered, and some may bring about supply increment. On the demand side, the demand for chemical fertilizer is weakened, the downstream procurement may slow down, and on the cost side, coal is still affected by the regulatory policies, and the price remains stable. Overall, liquid ammonia may have high callback risk.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the business agency, the demand was affected by the off-season of the market in May. In addition, the feed gas price was lowered, and the cost support was further reduced. As the Dragon Boat Festival was approaching, considering the poor logistics during the holiday and the reduction of prices by liquid plants, it was expected that the domestic LNG price would continue to decline.

The raw material cost continued to support, and the ammonium chloride market continued to rise in May. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of ammonium chloride was around 1445 yuan / ton at the beginning of May, and 1527 yuan / ton at the end of May, an increase of 5.71%.

In May, the price of raw liquid ammonia rose slightly, and the cost continued to support. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 31, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 5306 yuan / ton, up 4.74% from 5066 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In May, the price of urea continued to rise, which continued to support ammonium chloride. As of May 31, the domestic urea price was 3201 yuan / ton, up 5.09% from 3046 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month

Although the demand has gradually entered the off-season, on the one hand, the high raw material prices and strong cost support; On the other hand, less than 80% of the combined caustic soda industry has been started. In addition, the low load of enterprises in some areas is tight, and June and July are the traditional maintenance seasons. The supply side is expected to continue to reduce. The current situation and expectation of tight supply promote the ammonium chloride market to continue to rise at a high level in May.

Aftermarket forecast: the ammonium chloride analysts of the business society believe that the current cost and supply support of ammonium chloride will continue; On the other hand, spring ploughing has been gradually completed. It is expected that the ammonium chloride market will fluctuate at a high level in June.

On June 2, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Due to different production fuels, there was a large gap between manufacturers’ quotations. The mainstream price in the on-site negotiation was 4600-5000 yuan / ton, and the price quotation in Hebei was 5200-5300 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of liquid ammonia in the upstream raw material market remained high, and the price trend of nitric acid rose. The rising price of raw materials has a certain cost support for the ammonium nitrate Market, but the sales of the downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end, and the on-site supply of goods has been normal recently, The market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable, and it is expected that the price may rise slightly in the later period. The market prices of ammonium nitrate in some domestic regions are as follows:

Region, Price (yuan / ton), Rise and fall (yuan / ton)

Hebei region, 5200-5300., 0

Henan region, 4500-4600., 0

Shaanxi region, 5000-5200., 0

Yunnan region, 2900-3100., 0

On June 1, the price of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable

According to the data of business agency, on June 1, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 11200 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous trading day; The price of aluminum fluoride increased by 2.28% compared with 10950 yuan / ton on May 1. The recent aluminum fluoride market has stabilized.

Key points of analysis

Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has been adjusted strongly, the price of fluorite has risen violently, the cost of aluminum fluoride has risen strongly, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased; The high price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream has stabilized, the price of cryolite has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand in the downstream has recovered. The overall downward pressure on aluminum fluoride is still strong.

Aftermarket forecast

The demand for rising costs is stable, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride is still strong. In the future, the aluminum fluoride market will undergo strong shock adjustment.