Economic growth forecast lowered, ethylene market fell

I. price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has declined recently. The average price of ethylene on the 15th was 877.25 US dollars / ton, down 5.24% from 925.75 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the month. The current price is down 9.19% year on year.

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II. Market analysis:

Product: ethylene has declined in recent days. Asian ethylene market prices fell in shock, as of 15 days, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $737-745 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $787-795 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell, as of 15 days, European ethylene market prices for FD northwest Europe closed at $1031-1042 / T, CIF northwest Europe closed at $937-946 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region fell. As of the 15th, the price was US $435-447 / ton. Overall, the price of upstream crude oil fell for the second consecutive trading day, and the overall ethylene market fell. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

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Industry chain: International: on October 15, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose to 52.81 US dollars / barrel, down 0.78 US dollars or 1.5% from the previous trading day, while Brent crude oil futures fell to 58.74 US dollars / barrel, down 1.0% or 0.61 US dollars from the previous trading day. According to the news, the latest estimate of the International Monetary Fund shows that the global economic growth rate is expected to drop to 3% this year. The drop in factory prices of Chinese industrial producers has also dampened the atmosphere in the international oil market. The cost support was weak, and the ethylene market fell. The price of downstream styrene continued to fall and the price of ethanol was consolidated, which could not support the price of ethylene, and had a downward trend.

3. Future forecast:

The International Monetary Fund warned that the trade war between the United States and China would reduce the global economic growth in 2019 to the lowest level since the financial crisis in 2008-2009, but the economy would rebound if the additional tariffs were removed. The next round of high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States will affect the supply and demand changes in the crude oil market to be further observed. The market is mainly guided by the news, so the data analysts of the business agency expect that the ethylene price will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future.

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