Price Trend
According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic carbon black quoted 7,000 yuan/ton on August 30, with a small fluctuation and a price fluctuation range of 100-300 yuan/ton. The market of carbon black is generally stable this month, with low-level operation as the main factor.
In 2018, after a sharp fall in the carbon black market, it is difficult for prices to rise again. Prices fluctuated little throughout the first half of 2019 and there was no further sharp rise or fall in the market.
II. Market Analysis
Industry chain:
In the first half of 2019, the terminal tire market started to decline compared with last year. In the first half of the year, due to the reduction of terminal car sales, combined with trade and other factors, the tire factory started to decline, the upstream carbon black raw oil was affected by the shrinkage of coking industry capacity, and the price remained at a high level. Comprehensive factors led to the decline of the company’s main product carbon black gross interest rate, and the half-year performance declined year on year.
China Rubber Industry Association Carbon Black Branch issued the “Carbon Black Industry Self-Discipline Initiative”. The Initiative said that since the second half of last year, the carbon black industry has experienced unprecedented difficulties and the whole industry has suffered losses. In order to ensure the normal production and operation of the carbon black industry, enterprises are encouraged to consciously limit their production and limit their production range. According to the market demand, on the basis of the original output, the production is limited by 10%-20%, ensuring the balance of supply and demand in the market; stabilizing the market of carbon black raw oil and not participating in the bad competitive behavior of driving up the price of raw oil; stabilizing the market sales and selling according to the reasonable profit space; and also requiring that China’s carbon black exported to the international market should not compete disorderly. 。
Listed company:
Longxing Chemical (002442) recently released its semi-annual report for 2019. The announcement showed that revenue reached 1.411 billion yuan during the reporting period, down 3.64% from the same period last year; net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies was 876.26 million yuan, down 86.14% from the same period last year; basic earnings per share was 0.0183 yuan, compared with 0.1317 yuan in the same period last year.
| PVA FIBER |
It is understood that during the reporting period, the company’s main business has not changed significantly, and still mainly produces and sells carbon black. 90% of the company’s carbon black sales flow to tire companies. During the reporting period, the company produced 213,800 tons of carbon black, sold 220,100 tons of carbon black, and realized business income of 141,066.61 million yuan, a decrease of 3.64% over the same period of last year, of which carbon black is sold. Prices fell by 10.54% over the same period last year.
Net profit in the reporting period was 87.666 million yuan, 86.14% lower than that in the same period last year. The sharp decline in profits was mainly due to the impact of lower sales prices. During the same period, carbon black sales prices dropped by 10.54%, and carbon black costs dropped by only 2.44%. The decline in carbon black prices was mainly due to the weakness of the tire market and the release of new carbon black production capacity, which intensified competition.
According to the data, Longxing Chemical Company is mainly engaged in the production and sale of carbon black, silica and coal tar products, and is the backbone enterprise of domestic carbon black industry.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
Black Cat shares (002068) in the first half of 2019, the company realized business income of 3.171 billion yuan, down 18.64% from the same period last year; net profit – 116 million yuan, 306 million yuan in the same period last year; net profit after deduction – 119 million yuan, 305 million yuan in the same period last year.
During the reporting period, the production and marketing data of domestic automobile industry continued to decline, and the demand declined. The downstream tire industry started construction and purchasing intention of the company declined. The upstream carbon black raw oil was affected by the shrinkage of coking industry capacity, and the price remained at a high level all the time. Comprehensive factors led to the interest rate of carbon black wool, the company’s main product. Decline, half-year performance declined year-on-year.
Data show that the company is mainly engaged in the production and sales of carbon black, tar refining and silica products, of which carbon black products account for more than 80%, is the company’s main business products.
| http://www.barium-chloride.com |
3. Future Market Forecast
Business Society Chemical Branch carbon black data analysts believe that: due to the downstream demand reduction, coupled with July and August for the downstream demand off-season, the trend of carbon black easy to fall and difficult to rise will continue, short-term has not been significantly positive, the market is expected to continue to operate at a low level.