According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise this week. The average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 2716 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and it rose to about 2883 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 6.13% in the week. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2550-2650/ton; in Shandong is about 2800-3000 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 2600-2650 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2280 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 2850-2950 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3000-3100 yuan/ton; in South China, the quotation is about 2900-2950 yuan/ton, which is 47.65% lower than that in the same period last year.
|PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)|
II. Cause Analysis
Products: The overall start-up rate of acetic acid Market in East China is still low, spot supply continues to be tight, some devices will be restarted soon, supply-side gap will be further narrowed, acetic acid prices will gradually stabilize within a week; enterprises in North and Central China start normal work, low inventory, driven by the rise in acetic acid prices in East China, followed by a rise in the week. In terms of start-up, the overall start-up rate of the industry recovered slightly last week, with an overall rate of about 68%. Huayi Group’s Shanghai plant is expected to resume next week; Soap in Jiangsu Province has completed the restart; Dalian Hengli 350,000 tons/year plant is currently operating 60% with a daily output of about 600 tons; Henan Longyu plans to overhaul at the end of June.
|PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)|
Industry chain: upstream, domestic methanol market shocks and stabilises this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2198 yuan/ton, which rose 0.64% in the weekend, and the price fell 22.33% compared with the same period last year. The terminal demand of acetate and vinyl acetate industries is low, procurement is not good, overall negotiations are limited, short-term stability is the main factor; PTA spot market is affected by high raw materials and part. Installation overhaul effect, slightly increased in the week, but trade in the industry is still weak.
International: This week, the acetic acid Market in North America gradually stabilized, currently around 415 U.S. dollars per ton; the Asian acetic acid market continued to rise in the week, but the overall downstream demand remained weak, with the current quotation of 360-410 U.S. dollars per ton; and the European acetic acid market stabilized and moderately weakened this week, currently at about 520 U.S. dollars per ton.
3. Future Market Forecast
At present, the shortage of spot supply in domestic acetic acid market is gradually compensated, and the production of acetic acid enterprises in eastern China is about to return to normal. Although the overall low stock level in the industry has some favorable support for the price of acetic acid, there is no obvious improvement in the downstream market demand and there is some resistance to the high price of acetic acid. The analysis of acetic acid data from business associations shows that the domestic acetic acid market will be stable and weak in the near future.