Toluene Market Turbulence downward in May

Price Trend

According to the data from a large number of business associations, toluene prices in China showed a downward trend in May. In early May, the price of toluene was stable, and began to oscillate in the first half of the year. In the second half of May, the price of toluene continued to decline. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was the highest, 5412 yuan/ton; at the end of the month, it was the lowest, 5106 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 5.66%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Toluene market prices fell in the early period of this month, and continued to decline at the end of the month after the mid-term adjustment. At present, the mainstream turnover in the market is around 5080-5100 yuan/ton. The port stock in East China is about 514,000 tons, which is about 17,600 tons compared with 69,000 tons at the beginning of the month. Spring inspection of domestic toluene factories has been completed, parking devices have been started, and the market supply has increased. Some downstream units of toluene were put into operation in July, and it is expected that demand side will restrict the rise of toluene price in June.

2. Industry chain: In the upstream, the international oil price first stabilized and then fell in May. The OPEC production reduction and geographic situation were the main positive factors in the early and mid-term. The downward trend of the US stock market and the unexpected decline of the US crude oil inventory led to a sharp drop in the international oil price in the latter half of the year. On the downstream side, the price trend of domestic paraxylene market declined in May, with a monthly decline of about 2.61%. New PX devices were not started, and the enthusiasm of stockpiling was not high, which caused a certain blow to the market mentality, mainly just in need of purchasing, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. In May, the TDI market also showed a downward trend, with a monthly decline of about 25.67%. There was no volume drop, and the middlemen lacked the opportunity to ship. At the end of the month, the number of inquiries just increased, which is difficult to form a strong support for the industry at present. Demand is constrained by the rise in toluene Market prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of toluene in the branch of Business Society and Chemical Industry believe that overall, the holders are still optimistic about June because of the bullish support of crude oil and the driving of downstream PX devices. The market is mainly concerned about the driving of Sinochem Hongrun PX devices. However, at present, other major downstream purchasing intentions are general, the buying atmosphere is insufficient, stocks remain high, the market is in a stalemate stage, and toluene may fall first in June. Later up, but the range is small.