The first half of this year, maleic anhydride market ups and downs, as shown below, the lowest price in the 7500-8000 yuan / ton level, the high price can reach 9500 yuan / ton level, the upper and lower spread of 1500-2000 yuan / ton, while prices rose or down The relatively fast speed, making the maleic anhydride market speculative operation greatly enhanced, starting from 2016, maleic anhydride market volatility characteristics to promote speculative opportunities began to increase this year’s performance is more prominent, the market attention has improved significantly.
| PVA |
In addition to considerable price space to give speculation opportunities, the maleic anhydride market there are some other features that can give speculative support. Look at the first half of the price trend, within 6 months, the market has experienced three bands ups and downs, the price fluctuations are relatively frequent, which is to support the market speculative operation of the important factors. Specifically, the two bands spread large, especially in January before the Spring Festival Quotes straight up the process, from 8500 yuan / ton price level straight line rose to 9500 yuan / ton point, but this trend of price fluctuations speculative positions a. The second band 4-5 month price adjustment is relatively small, the price increase of about 500 yuan / ton in the vicinity. The third band, late May to early July, the market experienced a long period of unilateral rise, giving the industry Jiancang stocking time is relatively long.
Currently on the market there are two forms of maleic anhydride, liquid anhydride and solid anhydride, liquid storage requirements are higher, the general situation of the factory directly to the factory, solid anhydride with moisture-proof woven bags, relatively speaking, storage, sales are more flexible , The most important storage conditions is to keep moisture, under normal conditions, solid anhydride can be stored 3-6 months or so, from the product characteristics and storage time point of view, also supports speculation.
Of course speculative operation also has many restrictions, first, maleic anhydride product price is higher, in the 8000-9000 yuan / ton in the vicinity, once Jiancang after the capital occupation and time may be longer, speculative operation time is difficult to do Precise control, the length of time occupied by the funds will also be related to the level of cost. Second, the broadness of the procurement channels will also affect the feasibility of speculation, due to changes in the price of maleic anhydride prices not only by raw materials and related products, the recent industry started its impact on the growing price, , The process of rising prices, enterprises and more direct users and the needs of customers, Jiancang more difficult.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
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From the past to see the future, the late maleic anhydride market is also a strong speculative operation it? Future market speculation opportunities, mainly depends on the maleic anhydride market volatility model is not able to extend the current characteristics of maleic anhydride price fluctuations, on the one hand by the impact of raw benzene, on the other hand by the supply and demand impact. From the perspective of raw materials, pure benzene price fluctuation frequency is relatively high, in addition, although the maleic anhydride total excess capacity, but the long-term shutdown capacity of benzene method, butane device still can not meet all the domestic demand, once the device shutdown Maintenance, the supply of tightening will lead to an independent rise in the price of maleic anhydride, so the future price of maleic anhydride is expected to fluctuate the frequency is still high, no significant change in production capacity before the maleic anhydride market speculative operability is still strong.
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