In September, aluminum prices first strengthened and then weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 26, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20783.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% compared to the market average price of 20636.67 yuan/ton on September 1.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 20000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
Recent favorable factors
Aluminum inventory in the previous period decreased (warehouse receipts decreased)
According to the data released in the previous issue, on September 26, 2025, the aluminum futures warehouse receipts were 63230 tons, a decrease of 1178 tons compared to the previous period.
Electrolytic aluminum inventory remains relatively low
On September 25th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumer areas in China was 614000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the social inventory of 620000 tons on September 4th, and a decrease of 23000 tons from the social inventory of 637000 tons on September 22nd. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased first and then decreased during the month. In the early stage (9.4-9.22), the inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, partly due to the high operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum and sufficient supply. On the other hand, although the peak consumption season of “Golden September” has arrived and some downstream enterprise orders have improved, the overall demand growth may not have fully absorbed the newly added supply, resulting in a slight increase in inventory. As the holiday approaches, the demand for replenishing inventory in the market has increased this week, while social inventory has decreased.
The inventory of aluminum bars in the market has decreased (inventory reduction)
As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of aluminum bars in mainstream consumption areas in China has dropped to 123000 tons, a significant decrease of 12000 tons from last Thursday. This is mainly due to the increase in market automobile transportation, the continuous low operation of warehouse arrival volume, and limited supply side increment; As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream processing enterprises have started pre holiday stocking, leading to a month on month increase in outbound volume of 0.41 million tons to 4.75 million tons. On September 26th, the total inventory of aluminum bars in China (51500 tons in Guangdong and 26500 tons in Wuxi) was 78000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from the previous period.
Recent bearish factors
The spot price of alumina has fallen (average price has decreased)
Recently, the spot price of alumina has shown a downward trend, with an average price decrease. On September 26th, the spot price of domestic alumina partially fell, with prices in the southern region of China ranging from 3080 to 3130 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous trading day; The price of alumina per ton in East China is between 2910-2950 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous trading day; The prices of alumina in the southwest and northwest regions remained unchanged from the previous trading day. Since September, the spot price of metallurgical grade alumina in China has continued to decline, with a decrease of over 2.5% compared to the end of August and a decrease of nearly 20% compared to the same period last year.
Future forecast
Raw material side: The operating capacity of alumina is at a high level and continues to accumulate inventory, with limited cost support for aluminum prices.
Downstream demand side: As the peak season in China gradually approaches, the demand for aluminum ingots in stock has improved, and the operating rate of primary processing enterprises has increased month on month.
Overall, the upward space for aluminum prices has narrowed, but the trend is mainly based on the actual demand landing downstream, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short term.
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