In September, the overall price of polyester filament showed a gradual decline trend. As of September 28th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6500-6800 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7800-8100 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6800-7000 yuan/ton.
Insufficient cost support: Although OPEC’s October production increase plan is lower than expected, the restart of some PTA maintenance facilities has increased supply pressure, resulting in a decline in spot prices and a slight decrease in ethylene glycol prices. The weakness of the raw material side makes polyester filament lack the driving force for cost increase.
Weak demand performance on the demand side: The recovery of demand during the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” peak season is relatively weak. Although the operating rate of downstream weaving enterprises has rebounded, it is still declining compared to the same period last year. The inventory of raw fabric is high, and the total number of new orders has not significantly increased. Purchasing is mainly based on small orders for essential needs, and the production and sales data of polyester filament are light.
There is significant pressure on the supply side: despite mainstream production companies collaborating to reduce production in the early stages, the industry’s operating rate remains relatively high at 91.3%, indicating a high supply pressure. And over time, some companies have limited willingness to continue large-scale production cuts based on cash flow and market share considerations, and the supply side’s support for prices has gradually weakened.
Inventory pressure rises: Throughout the first and middle of September, the market was shrouded in high inventory. As of September 18th, the factory inventory of POY, FDY, and DTY reached high levels of 20.6 days, 28.8 days, and 31.5 days, respectively. In order to alleviate inventory pressure, polyester factories have to continue offering discounts and promotions. Due to sustained low production and sales, the inventory pressure of polyester filament factories continues to increase. To alleviate inventory pressure, some companies have chosen to offer discounts and promotions, further suppressing market prices.
Market sentiment is cautious: Against the backdrop of no substantial positive developments in costs, demand, and supply, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and industry concerns about the “long-term decline” have intensified. The low trading enthusiasm of both buyers and sellers has also made it difficult for prices to rise significantly.
Business Society believes that short-term prices will remain weak and fluctuate. Currently, downstream weaving enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm, mainly focusing on replenishing inventory for essential needs. The production and sales rate of polyester filament factories is sluggish, and inventory pressure continues to rise. Meanwhile, the prices of upstream raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol have fluctuated weakly, further weakening cost support. In addition, the market is increasingly concerned about the accumulation of inventory during the National Day holiday, and companies have a strong willingness to sell their inventory. They may continue to offer discounts and promotions to suppress prices.
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