According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market continued to rise in May. From May 1st to 31st, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 16866 yuan/ton to 17516 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 3.85% and a year-on-year price increase of 12.29%.
In the first half of the month, the domestic aggregated MDI market prices slowly moved upwards, with limited spot filling. Under the premise of low inventory, downstream demand followed suit, and the market supply was tight, driving up prices.
In mid month, the domestic aggregated MDI market rose, with limited spot filling and support from market demand orders, causing prices to rise again. The overall social inventory is low, and the supply side has strong support, slowly pushing forward. However, downstream acceptance of the current price has weakened, with digestion and follow-up being the main focus.
In the latter half of the month, the domestic aggregated MDI market remained at a high level of observation, with little change in supply and an increase in some shipments, continuing the pace of shipments. With the imminent shutdown of the MDI plant in Fujian and the force majeure of the Dow plant in North America on May 21st, the supply side is expected to shrink, coupled with the recent sustained low social inventory, the supply side remains tight and advancing.
On the supply side, the Shanghai BASF plant maintenance plan for mid May will last for about a month. North American Sci Tech device shutdown. The European Hungarian Borsod installation is beyond our control. The maintenance of the Dow device in Germany is expected to take around 45 days. North American BASF installation force majeure. On May 14th, the BASF plant in Shanghai was shut down for maintenance, lasting about a month. On May 21st, the Fujian plant experienced a short shutdown. The shrinking supply of production enterprises is influenced by favorable factors in the supply side.
On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market has seen a significant price increase, and the short-term supply tension in the market is difficult to change. At the end of the month, overseas factories caught fire, and the impact on pure benzene production is still uncertain. However, for the long-term scarce domestic pure benzene market, it still stimulates prices to continue to rise. As of May 31st, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 9075.50 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the supply and demand logic of aniline in China continues to be weak. As of May 31st, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 12142.50 yuan/ton. The cost side of MDI aggregation is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, the downstream market slowly followed suit, rebounding after the price fell, and the buying atmosphere on the market improved, resulting in an increase in transaction volume. In recent times, the cold and formaldehyde free board industry has continued to follow up, while other industries have followed up slowly, and the overall market is driven by a strong trend. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future market forecast, the downstream demand side has limited follow-up, the market is digesting the increase, and the supply side is maintaining its intention to boost. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly strong and following up.
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