Recently, the domestic ABS market has seen a high rise, and spot prices of various brands have been adjusted. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 19th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12450 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 2.36% compared to the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: This week, the domestic ABS industry has taken on the pattern of load reduction and adjustment in the early stage, with an average weekly operating rate of around 56%. Although there has been a resumption of work in Dagu, Tianjin recently, there will be varying degrees of load reduction in Haijiang, Shandong, and Lihuayi in the future, and the supply of goods on site will still be reduced. The supply side has strong support for ABS spot goods.
Cost factor: In recent times, the overall trend of ABS upstream materials has maintained the previous pattern, with the acrylonitrile market continuing to rise. The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid ammonia have risen, and the cost support for acrylonitrile is strong; After the load of the acrylonitrile unit decreased in the early stage, the supply side declined, and there has been no news of resuming work recently. The main enterprises have actively increased prices, forming supplier support for acrylonitrile; The overall downstream consumption situation is mainly based on demand, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate mainly in the high range in the future.
This week, the domestic butadiene market remained strong at a high level. The external market prices are high, and some sources of goods are trading overseas orders during the export window period. At the same time, some auction sources sold at a premium to support spot prices. Domestic production has rebounded narrowly, and the pressure on the supply side of butadiene is not significant. The consumption of downstream major industries is average, and it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to operate at a high level in the future.
The styrene market remained positive this week. In the early stage, the inventory of styrene at the port was digested smoothly, but in recent times, both supply and demand have increased, and market momentum has increased. The inflow of funds into the market has had an impact, leading to an increase in bullish sentiment among businesses. At the same time, costs have not yet moved away from the high support position, and it is expected that styrene may still rise in the future.
In terms of demand: Recently, the main terminal demand for ABS has remained stable, and the overall factory load has remained stable with minor fluctuations. The stocking operation is mainly focused on buying in demand. The current low-end supply in the market is decreasing, and traders are actively reporting high. Considering the high rise in ABS prices, buyers are gradually showing resistance to high-end supply. On exchange trading is average, and the demand side is helping to stabilize the market.
Technical analysis
The probability of an upward trend in the ABS market is higher than that of a downward trend, and spot prices may continue to rise within a narrow range. According to the prediction model of the Business Society Commodity Analysis System, since January 14, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 39.13%.
Historical price monitoring [medium to low]: Since the beginning of 2024, ABS prices have been continuously in an upward trend. The current monitoring levels are 1-year high, 2-year medium, and 3-year medium low. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ABS in the past three years is 13420.95 yuan/ton, with a median value of 14475 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 10300 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 18650 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest historical price difference in the past three years) is 2150 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest historical price difference in the past three years) is -6200 yuan/ton.
This week, the 30 day moving average of ABS fluctuated from 87.5 yuan to 227.08 yuan, indicating a fluctuating upward trend in ABS prices.
Future Market Forecast
The current domestic ABS prices are maintaining a high and rising trend. From a fundamental perspective, the momentum of the upstream three materials of ABS has not weakened, and it is expected that the market will continue to maintain a high level in the future, with strong support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of ABS polymerization plant is expected to remain at a low level, and supply tends to be tight. Due to the high price range of ABS, it has affected some stocking consumption. The current demand side just needs to enter the market, and the support for spot goods is gradual. Technically speaking, the probability of the 7-day line crossing the 30-day line in the short term is relatively small, and the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe indicates that the probability of ABS maintaining a strong market in the future is higher. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market will remain strong at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the trend of demand.
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